APBRmetrics

[Mountain]

Offense on average really performs well on 2 days rest, winning on average against defense on any level of rest. Pretty tight match between offense and defense otherwise.

Year to year performance under different rest days might be one way to get a hint about the effect of aging on a club but small sample sizes limit the degree of confidence to conclude.



Looking at power ranking chart I see 10 over 112 on offensive efficiency for season. At least 7 better than 107 on defensive efficiency. Boston Detroit New Orleans and LA Lakers only ones to meet both.
Several others close including Dallas Utah and Toronto.

Results of last 5 games were really widely dispersed, especially on defensive efficency.


I see some variation in efficiency figures here at NBAstuffer.com and KnickerBlogger.Net. These things happen perhaps due to calculation of possessions and either site tells the general story but I mention it in case you want to look into it more.

[Dream-]

I loved your article on Offensive Efficiency vs. Defensive Efficiency winning games.

What I think would be interesting now is to do the same study for the playoffs, which is where, we are told that "Defense Wins Championships".

Could it be true for the playoffs?

[hoopseng]

[Mountain]

Hoopseng graciously provided me a file about the Sonics season with various information that I had not complied myself this season- scoring quarter by quarter, game pace & possession and game offensive and defensive efficency with the background specifics about rest. There is plenty I'll probably do with it over time. Thanks for the assist.

I'll mention a few things I've done so far. The first thing I did was graph game pace and offensive and defensive efficiency for the season for the season to date. I already knew that Sonics started very fast - using Paul Westhead's offense- faster for a brief time than any team played for a full season since Westhead's days with the Lakers and that it then slowed down but to see the numbers and the graph helped finetune the understanding about the change pattern.

The additon of Kurt Thomas to the starting lineup aligns pretty closely with the pace slowdown. The period of mixed / better W-L results that accompanied it- a big improvement from what happened before it- helped make that lineup / pace shift stick.

But using the data hoopseng provided I now see that pace slowed and defensive efficiency improved but average offensive efficiency declined and by more than defensive efficency improved. I didn’t know that.

Along with the insertion of Kurt Thomas the other main event of the season was the insertion of Jeff Green into the starting lineup at SF. The insertion of Green saw offensive efficency improve but defensive efficiency declined. But offensive improved more than defense declined. I did not know that because of the return to heavy losing. Pace quickened slightly.

In the end, apart from pace, offensive and defensive efficency for the full run of Thomas / Green were back to about where they were at the start of the season before Thomas or Green were in starting lineup. I didn’t know that either.

With 2 rookies in starting lineup the efficency numbers seemed to become more volatile up and down one game to next compared to a tighter game to game pattern prior to it. I guess that isnt surprising. But I don’t see any sign of more consistency coming online yet. I didn't feel any such sign but it was confirmation to see that it isn't there yet.

It will be interesting to see what happens to pace and the efficiencies now that Thomas is gone. Will pace amp back to the very fast level of early season? Will the record go back to the extremely low level that fast pace produced? Or have they learned that lesson? The rhetoric of run / play fast never shifted but the volume has been somewhat lowered in public. The 4th and final stage of the season will have interest from a player development standpoint as well watching coaching direction / team chemistry development.
I'll definitely want to continue to track pace and the efficienciy trends as well as the W-L to understand the story better.

Actually looking at last 10 games of Thomas / Green in the file pace had drifted lowest of season and offensive and defensive efficiency were at their best point, nearly in balance. But results now don't seem as important as draft impact and saving the owner money so that relative success was let go with the Thomas trade and the other one. But I guess on the positive side PJ did get to a point of showing improvement. But finding a nice 10 game stretch is often possible if sliced right. The next phase begins and the overall evalaution will get data from next season before stronger conclusions are formed.



From the results under different rest conditions at NBAstuffer I already got a sense that Sonics have wilted as things got tougher but I'll have to compare that to the performance of other teams, especially other low ranked teams to understand how bad it was. Putting the game by game efficiency data together with the performance under different rest conditions will help show where the slippage occured.

More tools, more time in study, the more you can understand. As an insider or as fan / outside analyst.

NBAstuffer.com is adding more stuff at a pretty quick rate. I see the players on the move stuff now. The top guys moving the most up and down on minutes, pts, rebs... it is
a handy way to get more questions and clues. Good stuff to feed the furnace of NBA interest.

[hoopseng]

I think stats told the truth for experimental Seattle team as Mountain got a conclusion by breaking down game by game data...

Sonics' point guard changes should also have impact on pace and efficiency numbers. Luke Ridnour, Delonte West and Earl Watson shared the job but neither was consistent during the 1st half of the regular season
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[hoopseng]

Looking forward to learning your comments about my new article on trades.

http://www.nbastuffer.com/articles/Trades_Working_Out_.html
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[Mountain]

Thanks for the summary table.

Simply in terms of PER improvements and decline (not how much) it looks like about an even number on each side.

[hoopseng]

The most interesting thing I think is Marcus Banks if only had a more playing time could put up more production when he was in Phoenix. Playing behind Nash is tough.

Confidence can make any basketball player look better!
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