You can see even in a 1 on 1 situation, the floor advantage gives a 60% to the defensive side. Once you account def. rebounds from FTMissed and Blocks, the average is closed to 70% DR, 30% OR, and you can intuit that a ball in the air after a missed shot has not an as hazzardous finale as throwing a coin in the air.. And this is all what linears metrics have to weight rebounds (to assign a DR% of 70% to all players and to use shortage weight as a substitution of tracking rebounds allowed-making everybody average here) given that the distribution of variability allowing rebounds by players, by positions, and by teammates is difficult to track (although a +/- rebounds metric could be easily tracked).
P.D.: An ON/OFF rebounding% is tracked by 82games, and you can see great rebounders are not such a great difference when they are off. The real win value of a lot of rebounders probably is not at all rebounding, but defending shots and helping on teammates's stops.
But it simply isn't true. Garnett in his prime averaged +330 boards compared to average, but his team was just average (and Minn's rebounding has improved with his departure). Rodman in his prime was +540 reb/season, but his teams were only about +170 in those years. Berri constantly criticizes Curry for being a poor rebounder (among other things), but as a team the Knicks have been above-average on rebounds with Curry. These are just anecdotes, of course, but the pattern is quite clear: the benefit/cost to the team of a high/low individual reb total is only a small fraction of that player's total.
Someone still permitted to post over at WOW should make this challenge to Dave and Jason: stop telling us that players' reb total correlates with their own rebound total the next year (duh), and show us a connection to their team's rebound advantage. Give us examples of a team replacing a 12 Reb48 player with a 15 Reb48 player and gaining 3 boards (or gaining 3 defensive stops). Or find 10 great rebounders whose team rebound advantage was as large as that player's own advantage over the position average (over several seasons). All that requires is to find some great rebounders whose teammates were (collectively) average rebounders. If rebound opportunities are only minimally impacted by one's teammates, as WOW assumes, this should be easy.
Unfortunately I don't have the time to do the analysis, but one could use the data available for download on basketballvalue.com, coupled with a database of individual player box score stats, to show the correlation between team rebounding and individual rebounding this season....
If you're interested, let me know if you have any questions. The rebounds in my data are all team rebounds.
Joined: 31 Dec 2004 Posts: 958 Location: Durham, NC
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject:
Harold Almonte wrote:
He's putting himself into a shell, trying to show he's totally self convinced he's right, rather than recognize he forgot something in the building process of the metric.
Now I'm really confused. At first you say you don't understand his shelling strategy, and then you explain it perfectly. Which part of it don't you understand?
Gabe I don't want to put more fuelwood in that fire. It's not my bussiness. If it's me, I would have upgraded the metric in another book with the request of collaboration of the most recognized authorities in that issue (specially staticians more than economists).
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