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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
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 Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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Serhat the empirical data for this particular difficult schedule circumstance in the article was interesting to see: league average 2 point negative effect for road trip enders beyond the road norm and the 1/3 winning %. It is commonly talked about but you have given a sharper sense of the point impact. The overall average road win % is a little less than 45% so roadtrip enders are notably less than that as well.
Schedule impact data for this and other circumstances make sense in your game prediction model.
Thanks for sharing the findings.
Using your 5 game offensive / defensive efficiency chart I see both Boston and San Antonio slipped below league average on offensive efficiency during this short stretch and Spurs were just average on defensive efficiency. Mavs and Lakers looking strongest recently. Will be looking at the next 5-10. |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Mountain wrote: |
Using your 5 game offensive / defensive efficiency chart I see both Boston and San Antonio slipped below league average on offensive efficiency during this short stretch and Spurs were just average on defensive efficiency. Mavs and Lakers looking strongest recently. Will be looking at the next 5-10. |
Yes Sir, let's see how will the Lake Show respond w/o Andrew Bynum! He's out at least for 8 weeks...
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
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Mountain
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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There are advantages and disadvantages of last 5 over last 8 or 10. I think I might prefer last 10 after the season start but of course it is your choice.
Eventually some sort of table or graph on the movement of team efficiencies block by block might be interesting to see. |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 3:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Mountain wrote: |
Eventually some sort of table or graph on the movement of team efficiencies block by block might be interesting to see. |
I have it already on my spreadsheets. I couldn't decide where to put it. It might be a good homepage material. It contains Top 10 & Bottom 10 teams who have their off. and deff. efficiencies most increased or most decreased.
About the "Last 5" or "Last 10" issue: I'm keeping an interesting stat which tells me: Playing good basketball or poor performance streaks have come to a end generally after 5 or 6 games. Last 10 games numbers are so closed to season averages unless the team have key injuries.
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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Now, in the team efficiency page, I've added correlations between efficiencies and W/L percentage.
The result: Offfensive eff. is more related to winning or losing the games. When playing at home, it's more significant.
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Mountain
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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Interesting.
And, if I am understanding it right, as team average pace goes up, winning goes down very slightly on average in the league today.
Last edited by Mountain on Sun Jan 20, 2008 2:05 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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magicmerl
Joined: 30 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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Nice article, Serhat. Don't take this the wrong way, but the article are a little better without the paragraphs of filler, possibly because you come across as english not being your first language.
I like the breakdown of the stats here, but it's a little hard to work out what it means in terms of drawing conclusions.
It looks like for road teams, both offensive and defensive efficiency correlate equally with winning, but for home teams it's more important to have a good offensive efficiency, and that home teams can maintain an equivalent win percentage with a lower defensive efficiency?
Put into words, does that mean that the 'home court' advantage that a home team gets from home cooked means, home fans, referee bias etc leads to a team somehow playing as of their defensive efficiency is higher than it is? |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 8:57 am Post subject: |
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Mark, yes it is. Home cooking calls, fans, motivation issues have impact on higher W/L&offense relativity. You may consider to take a look at Dean's article on "Home court advantage". On monday, I'm going to publish an article about this correlation subject.
You have it right. Articles are limited to my English which is not good enough. I'll try to fix it for the next articles.
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 4:48 am Post subject: |
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| Mountain wrote: | Interesting.
And, if I am understanding it right, as team average pace goes up, winning goes down very slightly on average in the league today. |
The problem with that interpretation is that you're assuming a linear relationship between the two. |
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Mountain
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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I know that teams use high and low pace almost equally successfully on average and the relationship is weak and the data is quite scattered.
But after noting that, the slight tilt is toward more winning with slow pace. I am not assuming anything more or stretching its significance. It would make sense to look at a longer set of seasons rather than react too strongly to less than half a season of course.
Pace choice should be made based on a particular team's ability to play & succeed with a style. Look at their offensive and defensive efficiency at each pace choice more than the pace.
Last edited by Mountain on Tue Jan 22, 2008 1:18 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, linear regression is the assumption I made.
By the way, my write-up is ready. Here you can find it.
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 3:50 pm Post subject: |
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| hoopseng wrote: | Yes, linear regression is the assumption I made.
By the way, my write-up is ready. Here you can find it. |
I just read it.
| Quote: | Here's the quick research results about what NBA teams have to do to win regular season games.
(1) Offense wins games. We made it for sure because offensive efficiency has 0.1 higher correlation coefficient than defensive efficiency. |
Wow. That's a bold statement. Did you test if either or both of the correlations were significant, or just note they were "high"? There are plenty of correlations that will look pretty high, but so what?
To make the point, I quickly took two teams that performed very differently last year, Boston and Phoenix, and obtained the combined game-by-game correlations between:
1) Wins and Team Points, 0.5087
2) Wins and Opponent Points, -0.2524
3) Wins and Point Differential, 0.8192
4) Wins and Number of Wins to that point in the season, 0.24642
5) Wins and Number of Losses to that point in the season, -0.2962
6) Point Differential and Team Points, 0.5877
7) Point Differential and Opponent Points, -0.3467
8) Point Differential and Number of Wins to that point in the season, 0.2255
9) Point Differential and Number of Losses to that point in the season, -0.3003
10) Wins and Home/Away, 0.0610
11) Point Differential and Home/Away, 0.1334
Am I now to conclude that...
...Number of Wins So Far can better predict Wins than Point Differential? (I'm not even sure if this is a meaningful statement)
...Team Points is twice as good an indicator of Wins than Opponent Points? (Tell it to the Pistons, Cavs, Heat, Grizz, or Kings)
...Home/Away status is over twice as strong a predictor of Point Differential than Wins? (What's the difference, really?)
...Point Differential is over 61% better (0.8192/0.5087 = 1.6105) at predicting Wins than Team Points is?
Really? Because I bet if you told me Point Differential and no other information, I could tell you with 100% accuracy whether or not the team won the game in question. So what does that say about the correlation being only 0.8192? |
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magicmerl
Joined: 30 Dec 2007
Posts: 54
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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Nice analysis, Serhat.
Just a thought, do you think you could do the same analysis on last years playoffs? Noone denies that Phoneix and Dallas are two great offensive teams, and they are also great at racking up the regular season wins.
But does defense become more correlated with winning in the playoffs? |
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