APBRmetrics

deepak · Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 665

It's interesting to see that Chuck Hayes is still doing very nicely by these rankings.

He's an interesting case. Traditionalists say that you can't appreciate what he brings by looking at the stats. But then, when you look at his ratings, whether its Wins Produced or these BoP-style stats, he does very well for (what the media at large considers) a marginal role player. Even his PER, a usage-oriented stat, is pretty decent.

Do the stats overrate Chuck Hayes, or is he really this good? He is often criticized as being a "liability" on the offensive end by Rockets fans. Is that something that isn't captured well by these type of metrics? Outside of some offensive boards, a few layups every game, and some nice screens, he really doesn't have much of a role on offense. Yao Ming has recently complained (to Chinese media, of course) that when McGrady isn't around to zip passes to Chuck for layups, Chuck's inability to hit the midrange shot allows teams to more easily double up on him.

Ben · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 266 Location: Iowa City

I don't think Deng and Gordon should use this page in their negotiating.

bchaikin · Joined: 27 Jan 2005 Posts: 688 Location: cleveland, ohio

Traditionalists say that you can't appreciate what he brings by looking at the stats.

sure you can - if you actually look at the stats...

just look at his career stats as if they had occurred over the span of one season. as of yesterday he's played 2499 minutes in the league (over 3 seasons) with 768 rebounds, 112 steals, and just 80 turnovers. to appreciate how rare/good that is (had he done this over say one season), to get that many rebounds with so few turnovers, consider the fact that over the past 30 seasons of the nba a player has played as many as 2000 total minutes in a season and grabbed 750+ rebounds 378 different times, but only 3 times (less than 1% of those times) with 80 or less turnovers, i.e. it has rarely happened...

and to do this with more steals than turnovers (ST-TO of 112-80 = +32) makes it that much better, only players like ben wallace and shawn marion (possibly a few others) have done this...

now if the rest of his game was poor - say he was an awful shooter and/or a poor defender - the above could be excused as being of little consequence. but in fact in 2499 minutes he's shot overall a high ScFG% (combining 2pters, 3pters, and FTs) of 57.5%, has one of the very highest rates of steals per minute among all PFs this and the previous two seasons, and is arguably a better than average defender at PF despite being just 6'6"....

he rates highly in most per minute type rating systems despite low touches/min on offense simply because he is a very good rebounder who gets alot of steals but is also very efficient on offense (high ScFG%, low TO) with his limited opportunities. the fact that he commits fouls at a very high rate limits his playing time, but on a per minute basis he's been very good...

Outside of some offensive boards, a few layups every game, and some nice screens, he really doesn't have much of a role on offense. Yao Ming has recently complained (to Chinese media, of course) that when McGrady isn't around to zip passes to Chuck for layups, Chuck's inability to hit the midrange shot allows teams to more easily double up on him.

this may very well be true, but the bottom line is there's been alot of PFs in the nba the last few decades with low touches/min on offense that were also very good rebounders like hayes, but that did not have the combination of efficient shooting, low TOs, and high steals with also being a good defender like hayes. to get that many rebounds and steals without costing your team alot of zero point possessions on offense through missed shots rebounded by the defense and/or turnovers simply doesn't happen often...

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

Per our discussion, I've included BobC's touches, as well as current WARP values. Also, I've changed the "season wins" formula under the teams tab -- much like FO's "DAVE" rankings, I took our official preseason predictions (the average of Mike's, John's, and my wins predicted) and will combine them with Pyth (weighted by the amount of the season we've completed) to give "power," the expected team WPct from here out. At midseason, the sample should be sufficient to use this year's stats on their own, so after the 41st game, "Power" will simply become Pyth.

However, I still can't figure out how to "freeze" panes in a published doc. Anybody know how to do this?

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

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Happy Thanksgiving, everybody!

mojo · Joined: 09 Dec 2005 Posts: 10

Can someone link to definitions for these stats? I've looked in some previous threads but am still unclear regarding some of them. Thanks for the work!

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

mojo · Joined: 09 Dec 2005 Posts: 10

Thank you, davis. I knew some of these were in Bball on paper and didn't realize that the rest were too. I do have this book and have not read it since it came out. Now that the season has started, I will definitely give it a good reread. Thanks!

HoopStudies · Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 9:10 am Post subject:

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

KeeneKaufmanWheeler · Joined: 02 Aug 2006 Posts: 72

Davis; This is great stuff. Do you have the ability to also add individual player +/- stats?

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

basketballvalue · Joined: 07 Mar 2006 Posts: 208

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

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Sorry about no posting yesterday and no +/- today, it's that time of year again at school...