Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:38 am Post subject: Preseason Predictions
Seeing that Mike G has followed DW21 in putting up a set of preseason predictions I thought it would be good to have one thread with links to all of the predictions.
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Chicago Bulls 55-27 1st in Central
2. Cleveland Cavaliers 54-28 2nd in Central
3. Boston Celtics 51-31 1st in Atlantic
4. Orlando Magic 49-33 1st in Southeast
5. Detroit Pistons 48-34 3rd in Central
6. Miami Heat 43-39 2nd in Southeast
7. Atlanta Hawks 42-40 3rd in Southeast
8. Toronto Raptors 40-42 2nd in Atlantic
9. New Jersey Nets 39-43 3rd in Atlantic
10. New York Knicks 38-44 4th in Atlantic
11. Milwaukee Bucks 35-47 4th in Central
12. Charlotte Bobcats 34-48 4th in Southeast
13. Washington Wizards 33-49 5th in Southeast
14. Indiana Pacers 28-54 5th in Central
15. Philadelphia 76ers 21-61 5th in Atlantic
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Houston Rockets 61-21 1st in Southwest
2. San Antonio Spurs 59-23 2nd in Southwest
3. Dallas Mavericks 58-24 3rd in Southwest (5th seed)
4. Phoenix Suns 54-28 1st in Pacific (3rd seed)
5. Denver Nuggets 53-29 1st in Northwest (4th seed)
6. Utah Jazz 50-32 2nd in Northwest
7. Los Angeles Lakers 43-39 2nd in Pacific
8. New Orleans Hornets 39-43 4th in Southwest
9. Golden State Warriors 36-46 3rd in Pacific
10. Seattle SuperSonics 35-47 3rd in Northwest
11. Memphis Grizzlies 34-48 5th in Southwest
12. Sacramento Kings 27-55 4th in Pacific
13. Portland Trail Blazers 26-56 4th in Northwest
14. Minnesota Timberwolves 22-60 5th in Northwest
15. Los Angeles Clippers 20-62 5th in Pacific
I don't know how to get columns to transfer over right.
If someone else wants to do that great. I took a step in response to your helpful step. If someone explains the procedure to me and it is easy I may do it later. Or maybe I'll look up the past threads that discuss how to do it better. (Update: I looked at tab2spaces but haven't figure it out yet.)
I was coming in to correct the SA Spurs / Sacto error which I just caught as well.
Looks like there are small rounding errors in each or in my consolidation of them.
Last edited by Mountain on Wed Oct 10, 2007 9:14 pm; edited 3 times in total
It was helpful, it made it much easier to compare the predictions.
Now I'm curious why Hollinger likes the Nuggets and Hawks as much as he does, and why DW and MG don't like the Magic as much as either JH or the conventional wisdom.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1794 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:38 am Post subject:
Here's a 'formatted' (via Notepad) version, also updated on my end. First, the West:
Code:
Avg. team JohnH DW21 MikeG
61.2 Dal 58 62.2 63.5
61.0 SA 59 65.2 58.8
57.5 Hou 61 55.2 56.3
56.5 Phx 54 56.9 58.6
49.8 Uta 50 45.3 54.1
46.7 Den 53 44.4 42.6
40.5 LAL 43 40.2 38.2
40.2 NO 39 40.3 41.4
36.7 GS 36 34.4 39.6
35.6 Mem 34 35.2 37.5
32.3 Sea 35 34.0 27.9
31.7 Sac 27 36.0 32.0
29.1 LAC 20 33.7 33.6
25.0 Min 22 26.2 26.9
22.1 Por 26 21.8 18.6
total 617 631 630
I stuck with DW's minutes assignments, including:
1200 min for Kenyon Martin
1100 for Elton Brand
1600 fewer minutes for both Hassell and Juwan Howard, in Minny.
1462 from Stojakovic
only 280 min. from BSkinner in Phx (down from 1518 in Mil)
1100 for DMiles
2143-minute man Udoka (Por) goes to SA for 94 min?
I don't have a better guess for some of these, but there are some iffy-at-best cases. If Brand doesn't appear, then John's 20-62 might be closest.
In the West, I've upgraded Por, Uta, Min, and GS by 2.2-3.5 wins. They all have young players likely to improve.
Last year, the West won 68 games more than the East. Both DW and I have the East cutting that deficit by more than half; John sees it almost disappearing (Atl fan).
Code:
Avg. team JohnH DW21 MikeG
55.3 Chi 55 57.7 53.2
54.9 Cle 54 57.1 53.5
51.7 Bos 51 50.2 54.0
48.1 Det 48 48.7 47.6
45.3 Orl 49 45.8 41.0
41.8 Tor 40 40.0 45.5
38.8 Mia 43 37.6 35.9
38.7 NJ 39 36.9 40.1
37.5 Was 33 39.9 39.5
36.0 NY 38 32.7 37.3
35.8 Atl 42 33.4 31.9
33.0 Cha 34 29.7 35.3
30.7 Mil 35 27.4 29.7
30.0 Ind 28 32.0 30.1
25.5 Phi 21 29.7 25.7
total 610 599 600
The only shift in my ordering was that Orl and Mia switched spots. Cha and Tor gain 2+ wins; NY, Det, and Mia each lose 2.3-3.8 more.
On DW's minutes:
Why does up-and-comer Josh Smith lose 325 minutes?
Antoine Walker now gets 36 mpg, after being down to 24?
Foyle gets 1600 minutes (Orl), while Battie loses his?
I don't have inside information, so I'm just asking. _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
On DW's minutes:
Why does up-and-comer Josh Smith lose 325 minutes?
Foyle gets 1600 minutes (Orl), while Battie loses his?
I don't have inside information, so I'm just asking.
I can't speak to the rest, but I do know that Atlanta just used their #3 pick on a player who plays the same position as Smith and Tony Battie had shoulder surgery and is likely out for the season.
Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 507 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 12:28 am Post subject:
What THWilson said.
Although I do admit this: I couldn't really sort out the Hawks' PG situation, so I weaseled out of making the decision to cut Lue and/or Anthony Johnson's minutes severely enough, which in turn meant there were fewer minutes to hand to Smith/Childress/Marvin. That one was my bad; at some point I'll post a revision where I cut the PG's minutes to logical levels (right now they're at 68.5 combined MPG, which is absurd), and I'll see what it does to ATL's record. Good catch there, Mike.
And Walker? Well, I projected 35 MPG pretty much by default (assuming he can get into shape again, which I admit probably won't happen), because nobody behind him on the depth chart at either SF or PF is really worth a damn (as if Walker is! -- but I digress). Simien and Dorell Wright will see more minutes, but how many more? It's a guessing game, because Posey's gone, and I haven't got a clue who fills that hole. Wright, I guess. Tell you what -- I'll also shift Posey's '07 minutes to Wright, downgrade Antoine accordingly, and see how much MIA, um, improves... And on a related note: Wow, this Miami team is going to disappoint the non-stats crowd. Reality check for Mr. Kenny Smith!
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1794 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 5:33 am Post subject:
JohnH likes Atl, Orl and Mia a lot more than the rest of us do. Is that a southern bias?
If I expect DHoward to improve by 10% this year, that adds 2.4 wins for Orl. Their other main guys (RLewis, Nelson, Turkoglu) I don't expect to improve; though any of them could, Hedo just had a sharp peak, Nelson regressed, and Lewis is limited. Foyle doesn't even replace Battie (as much as GHill was = Lewis), so it's all on Dwight. Where are they gaining as much as 9 wins?
The Heat were about the last team that could afford defections of 2 starters, and I share DW's pain over giving Walker those minutes. If Wade goes down again, they're truly in the toilet.
Hawks are highly uncertain, but I gave the 1.1 multiplier to JSmith, MWilliams, Childress, SWilliams, and Salim. I may underestimate Horford, but not many rookies make an impact. If he's as good as Varejao, for 1358 min, figure another couple wins.
In Boston, I defied my own formula that predicts another decline from Garnett -- because, in so doing I'd be contradicting another prediction that KG would benefit from a change of scene. Pierce too could be due for a dropoff, except for the possible relief he gets now, from carrying a team.
Why do I like Tor so much? Well, I don't have an anti-north bias; and I expect improvements from Bosh, Barg, Garb, Jose. Only player on his downside might be Nesto.
I guess John likes the Bucks, too. Is that all Yi? I'm expecting more from Bogut and CharlieV, but that only helps by 2 wins. Simmons brings 4 W. Does Des get it back?
DW21: If you read the fine print of your apbrmetrics membership contract, 'weaseling' is specifically acceptable, along with 'fudging'; provided you do admit to them when probed. _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
May I stick up for my Trail Blazers, who have the lowest average win total of all 30 teams in these predictions?
Randolph and Udoka are gone, and I'm assuming that the simulations are unimpressed with Frye and James Jones as replacements. Fair enough.
Is it considered that last season's team won 32 games despite Roy playing in only 57 games, Randolph in 68, Aldridge in 63, Przybilla in 43, and Miles in zero? Yes, the team exceeded its expected win total, but that projection itself is probably deflated by the margin of their losses when they played without two or more of those players.
Increased minutes for Aldridge should replace much of Randolph's production, no? LaMarcus played well when he started at power forward.
Do we expect Frye to be worthless and if so, to actually log a lot of minutes for this team?
Shouldn't we expect modest improvements from Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez, and isn't Steve Blake an upgrade over Dan Dickau, whose minutes he'll replace?
No matter when Miles returns or what he's got left, he has to be better than Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw have been for the past two seasons, right? And what of Webster and Outlaw, don't they get a "1.1 multiplier" too?
Nobody in Portland expects the Blazers to contend for the playoffs this season, but if they fail to match their win total from 2006-2007 it can only be because Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge fall well short of expectations. Just by virtue of those two playing many more minutes they should be worth a couple extra wins, let alone if we also project them to improve. I just don't see how losing Randoph and Udoka not only offsets every improvement we can reasonably expect from the remaining players but also costs the team 10 or more wins from last season's total.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1794 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 7:17 pm Post subject:
Here are the Blazers projected minutes, same as those provided by DW21 in another thread; last year's eWins/1000 minutes rates; a factor (either .9, 1.0, or 1.1) producing this year's possible eW/1000; and the eWins resulting.
Last season, Aldridge only played 1390 Min. He could certainly go more than 1863, but he has no 'history' of playing more.
Miles' modest rate is only commensurate with a 1100-minute guy, not with whatever his current potential is (and I have no idea of that).
The eWins add up to 30.4 . The formula for eXpected wins is:
xW = 2*eW - 41 (for an 82-game season). This comes to 19.7 expected wins, from this lineup (playing these minutes). _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
Thanks. I didn't realize you were projecting Roy and Aldridge to miss significant time again. Makes sense, I guess, if their one-year histories are our only reference.
What would happen to the Blazers' projection if both Roy and Aldridge played in 2600 minutes, taking away some time from Webster, Frye, and Miles to get them those minutes?
Unless something goes terribly wrong, there is little chance Martell Webster is third on this team in minutes played at the end of the year.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1794 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 8:09 am Post subject:
Giving 2600 min to both Roy and LA, and dropping Miles to a token appearance, the Blazers project to 23 wins.
If both guys also improve by 20% (rather than 10%), figure 25-26 wins. They have a ways to go before they are allstars. Among the rest, only Jack, Frye and Outlaw even look like starter material -- and marginally so.
Now my 'rosiest' view is 25 wins, while my 'first pass' was 15. The middle is still 20. _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
All times are GMT - 5 Hours Goto page 1, 2, 3, 4Next
Page 1 of 4
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
