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rlee
Joined: 20 Aug 2005
Posts: 19
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 Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 7:44 pm Post subject: Kevin Pritchard believes he has the formula |
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| Quote: | Honk once for Oden - if only the decision could be that simple.
But Kevin Pritchard believes he has the formula that will produce a straightforward solution. And it won't rely on emotional opinions, debates or honking horns to uncover the answer. No, the Blazers general manager's approach will delve deeper, breaking the issue down into its unbiased components.
Pritchard's formula, which he guards with a thick veil of secrecy, is an algorithm designed by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology-educated whiz. And he believes so highly in its application - and is so concerned about other teams getting it - that Pritchard will only discuss the method and its results in generic terms. But the potential of the technique Pritchard terms "quantitative analysis" excites him as he prepares to use the formula in a draft for the third consecutive year. |
http://www.columbian.com/sports/localNews/06172007news154662.cfm |
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 79
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| Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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OK - this might be "groundbreaking" statistical analysis - but is kinda just looks like college player data was taken, adjusted for pace and SoS, and then individual proficiencies in various catagories were gathered versus average for position (in say shooting efficiency, drawing fouls, rebounding, assist ratio, turnover ratio, steal ratio, block ratio). You end up with a list of players that statistically "appear" athletic - having very good steal and/or block totals in relation to pace & competition, along with above average rebounding proficiency in relation to position. You also end up with a list of guys that are good at everything - close to or above average at eveything - while being exceptional at one or 2 things getting them in the top 10. For most of these guys it was being exceptional at steals or blocks, although Millsap's rebounding also helped him, Roy's shooting efficiency helped him, etc.
I'm not certain a player being well rounded at every stat (while also being exceptional at one or 2) necessarily means he's the BEST option for the draft - although I do think it could help find "sleepers". All of us that look at college stats thought Millsap would be much better than his draft position warranted.
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Kevin Pelton
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Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 680
Location: Seattle
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Ben F.
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 290
Location: MD
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| Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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I like this quote:
| Quote: | | Perhaps the Blazers still would have passed on Morrison without the algorithm's input - though he went on to an all-rookie season in Charlotte and justified his lottery selection. |
An article about how using statistical analysis helps evaluate players completely ignores any semblance of statistical analysis and just looks at Morrison's PPG when saying he had an "all-rookie season" and that he "justified his lottery selection."
It's great though that someone is having success with a balanced integration of numbers. Perhaps that success will lead to more open minds around the league. |
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mtamada
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 170
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| Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:22 am Post subject: |
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Kind of interesting that the player who was most often mentioned in that discussion was Salim Stoudamire, who, consistent with their model, has not exactly set the NBA on fire so far.
OTOH, he's only played two years, and he wasn't drafted until the 2nd round, so it's not as if he was rated that highly by NBA GMs either. |
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KD
Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 143
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| Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:44 am Post subject: |
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| Ben F. wrote: | I like this quote:
| Quote: | | Perhaps the Blazers still would have passed on Morrison without the algorithm's input - though he went on to an all-rookie season in Charlotte and justified his lottery selection. |
An article about how using statistical analysis helps evaluate players completely ignores any semblance of statistical analysis and just looks at Morrison's PPG when saying he had an "all-rookie season" and that he "justified his lottery selection."
It's great though that someone is having success with a balanced integration of numbers. Perhaps that success will lead to more open minds around the league. |
That one hurt. |
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jeffpotts77
Joined: 18 Feb 2005
Posts: 142
Location: Cambridge, MA
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| Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 12:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Ben F. wrote: | I like this quote:
| Quote: | | Perhaps the Blazers still would have passed on Morrison without the algorithm's input - though he went on to an all-rookie season in Charlotte and justified his lottery selection. |
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Yes, contrary to what this article is trying to point out here, its dislike for Morrison is certainly a feather in the cap for "the algorithm." Does anybody here know what it may have seen in Morrison's college stats to foreshadow his tough transition to the pros?
If I had to guess, I'd say it was his poor rebounding stats, an easy schedule(?), and a fairly low 3pt/FG attempt ratio. |
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cwood
Joined: 30 May 2007
Posts: 5
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| Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 4:53 am Post subject: |
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So if they had aldridge ranked 22nd by the "algorithm" yet still took him #2 overall, they apparently dont follow it very closely. You could argue its use in identifying sleepers but that doesnt match with the jist of the article, that is it will help them decide between Oden/Durant. |
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