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[Mark]

Looking for opinions between now and season start, if so inclined.

Which teams seem to have good or greatest chance for big gains in terms of increased number of wins:

East: Bulls seem a good prospect. How about Pacers, Raptors, Knicks? One might.

West: Denver, Utah, Houston seem strongest prospects to me. Minnesota might. Portland has plenty of room to grow and a new cast.

Biggest declines?

Harder to say. Memphis for Gasol, Battier and other reasons. Who else? I think Philly and Hornets might be among the higher chances to disappoint.

[asimpkins]

In the East, I'm guessing Orlando.

They have really good young players at the PG (Nelson) and C (Howard) who could continue to improve. They brought in Darko who played pretty well in his 30 games -- and has lots of room to improve. And they might get more than 21 games out of Grant Hill this year.

[jeffpotts77]

How about Seattle for one of the improved teams? In 04-05 they finished 1st in the Northwest division with a 52-30 record and then in 05-06, with virtually the same roster*, they post a disappointing 35-47** record. Clearly their defense was to blame and the departure of McMillan seems consipicuously related. Perhaps a full season under Bob Hill's tutelage could bring them back to prominence.

*(don't tell me the loss of Jerome James could have hurt them)

**I'm aware of the plexiglass principle but doesn't it ever work in reverse?

[asimpkins]

[Mark]

I looked at Orlando and they do have some nice pieces but my initial take was they might still be another year away from a major jump. Or just might take two years to do it. In rough terms I was thinking a major gain or loss would be closer to 10 games.

14th on team offensive efficiency, 22nd on defensive last year. Turnovers is the weakness on offense and giving fouls and not forcing as many turnovers were the defensive weaknesses.

G Hill is an unknown and probably shouldnt be dwelt on but if they surprise on the upside it might partly from getting a healthy and good supporting season out of him.

It will also be a big year for B Hill as coach.

Howard I need to study more but it concerns me that team defense worse with him on than off and he lost his counterpart matchup by a little by being only an average defender, doesnt have a jumpshot, doesnt hit his free throws. Modest gains from year 1 to year 2. Year 3 will be intriguing to watch, gets on superstar trajectory or more clearly indicates a path somewhat below that, with rebounding the only feature at major star level.

Nelson I like alot. If he takes another step up then a team win gain would be more likely. He may be their #1 guy. I like Turkoglu as a very good supporting player. Arroyo had a nice part of a year, more of that will be very helpful.

Magic in general does very poorly against good defensive teams.
PF is actually their weakest team position according to 82games.

I can see them pushing .500, up 5 wins, but not sure how much above that they go this season.

[Mark]

Seattle I was hesitant to raise and go into depth on but they could indeed be a major gainer if the defense improves enough. Late season with Watson and Wilcox was a promising run but benefitted from a home vs away advantage of 15-10 from Feb. 28, being a new look for opponents to try to figure out and having new energy. Lineup management will be key. Try to win with offense or make greater efforts to balance 5 man lines with 2-3 defensive bias players as much as possible.

[asimpkins]

Yeah, the thing I was thinking was that Nelson and Howard already had pretty good seasons last year. I'm pretty sure they're both going to improve even more during their careers, but there's no guarentee that another big jump will happen this coming year. It's a maybe.

So are Grant Hill and Darko Milic.

But I do like the fact that they have PG and C covered -- two vital and hard to fill positions. Maybe I'm overestimating it, but that counts for a lot with me.

I'm not too optimistic about the Raptors. It doesn't seem like Ford and Bargnani will be able to easily make up James' and Villanueva's production.

I agree on the Knicks and Bulls. Another possibility is the Heat. Last year they had a slow start, but they improved as they went on. This year they have the potential to start strong and carry it through the whole season. Though it's just as likely they'll pace themselves for the playoffs and deal with some injuries, so I wouldn't put money on it.

[Mark]

Miami is another interesting case as you suggest.
I doubt Riley pushes for regular season maximum wins but player pride might be generally high, wanting to respond to everyone gunning to beat them. Wade might be smart to conserve but I dont know if he will. Maybe Riley takes that call from him.

[Jim Raynor]

If T-Mac and Yao stay healthy, I can see the Rockets being a 50 win team, like they were in 2004-2005.

[davis21wylie2121]

The Rockets are the 2006 Philadelphia Eagles of the NBA: after an injury-plagued off year, they'll be back.

[asimpkins]

[Nikos]

You mean Desmond Mason.

[Mark]

It would be safer to say about the Hornets that they won't advance alot and will stand still or only gain a little. Maybe I should have just done that. But I was thinking about losing stabilizer PJ Brown, making a lot of changes, wondering if Hornets snuck up on people last year, whether B Scott is really a good coach, some concern whether Peja's future is as bright and relaible as past after weakness with Kings early last year and injury late (in between he did mostly recover), whether Chandler really helps, playing the young bigs for experience, whether Paul's second time thru folks know how to manage him better, the weak team finish last spring, splitting time in two home cities, etc. I was taking a risk and guessing a decent chance things get messy and they actually slip some in the face of tougher competition in the west.

[Koji]

An obvious pick would have to be Chicago. Wallace and Brown add 65 quality minutes to the frontcout they didnt have last year. Which means that they only have to worry about getting 30 minutes or so from their backups which should go a really long way. To me Chicago is a 50 win team.

A team that might be worse than people think is Sacramento. Artest plays too much of an offensive role at this point and I also see them getting killed on the boards. You also have to consider that a team like Houston is too good not to make the playoffs, so if the're in, it pushes someone out. I think thats the Kings.

[Mark]

The Kings were a borderline playoff team last year on w-l record, with fairly near median offensive and defensive ratings. The balance helped them get to the playoffs but also made them somewhat indistinct compared to their bigger story past. Bibby is their main advantage. Artest wasnt really in good shape and shot poorly yet had positive player pairs with everyone and team performance improved on both offensive and defensive end with him on vs off like he had in Indiana in 2003-4. With him in shape I assume his individual offense recovers better form. I agree with you though he is better as a third option and Rahim or Martin could step up some. How much of his superior throughout the game defense on his own man and help he recovers remains to be seen. His own defense just looked average last year by the counterpart data. The weight was too high.

I wouldnt be surprised if the Kings made another deal. Wells is hard alone because they dont want much salary back but adding players or teams might find some deal where they get assets or shift in other salary strucutre. Miller could be another trade option, or possibly Bibby, or maybe something huge with several of these or one of Rahim/Thomas. Denver could be a big trade partner if they were willing to part with Camby. Martin seems very tough to deal, especially if NY is no longer willing to trade short for long contracts. But maybe Isiah will try to get one more.