RocketsFan
Joined: 23 Oct 2005
Posts: 275
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 Posted: Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:14 am Post subject: Offense and Defense for Early Teams |
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I don't know if I should post this, since it doesn't really further basketball analysis any, but I thought it was kind of neat.
I want to make clear that this is not a better measure than points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. However, it does return reasonable results, so I am pretty pleased. The formula for offense is:
1. Take the league points scored and allowed, subtracting the team in question. Divide this by (league games - team games)*2.
2. Take team points scored plus points allowed and divide by team games times two.
3. Create the offensive context. This is points per game, divided by the second measure, times the first.
4. Defensive context is just points allowed per game.
5. Expected offense is step 4 plus step 5, divided by two.
6. Find the standard deviation of points scored per game for the league in the year in question.
7. Offensive score is then (PPG - Expected Offense)/Stdev
I'm sure you can figure out the defensive formula based on this.
A few points. I came up with the formula through guessing. I tried to be logical, but I can't really explain why I chose to do what I did at each step. It just worked pretty well in the end. I used the database from the other Basketball Reference, so I can't speak for its accuracy.
The top offenses by this formula:
| Code: | team year leag oscore
PHO 2005 N 1.99
LAL 1972 N 1.91
LAL 1998 N 1.82
DEN 1982 N 1.8
OAK 1969 A 1.72
DAL 2004 N 1.7
PHO 1993 N 1.69
GSW 1992 N 1.63
SAS 1979 N 1.61
SAC 2002 N 1.59
DEN 1981 N 1.51
PHI 1967 N 1.48
GSW 1976 N 1.48
DAL 2002 N 1.47
CHI 1997 N 1.44
LAL 1987 N 1.44
SAC 2004 N 1.44
CHI 1996 N 1.42
MIL 1971 N 1.4
DAL 2003 N 1.39
SAC 2001 N 1.37
PHI 1969 N 1.37
PHI 1968 N 1.34
SEA 1995 N 1.34
CIN 1964 N 1.33 |
The top defenses:
| Code: | team year leag dscore
NYK 1970 N -1.88
BOS 1962 N -1.83
BOS 1967 N -1.7
MIE 1951 N -1.65
SAS 2005 N -1.53
NYK 1993 N -1.53
MIL 1972 N -1.51
BOS 1965 N -1.49
POR 1978 N -1.48
NYK 1994 N -1.45
MIL 1985 N -1.43
MIL 1971 N -1.42
CHI 1996 N -1.41
CHI 1972 N -1.4
CLE 1996 N -1.38
BOS 1966 N -1.37
SEA 1979 N -1.36
SAS 2001 N -1.35
NYK 2001 N -1.34
CHI 1975 N -1.34
CLE 1995 N -1.33
SAS 2004 N -1.31
CHI 1977 N -1.31
BOS 1986 N -1.31
ATL 1987 N -1.3 |
You'll notice the 1997 Lakers take the third spot on the offenses, despite not rating as the best offense in the league that year. Again, I want to stress that this is not intended as a replacement for our current measures of offense and defense, but just as a fun way to measure pre-1974 teams. Finally, the database does not have teams from the most recent season.
Thoughts? Comments? |
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