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[94by50]

Marty Burns on SI today:

"The reigning MVP is arguably having a better season than he did a year ago. He has kept the Suns among the league's elite, despite the injury to Amaré Stoudemire, a major reshuffling of the roster, and a new defensive-oriented game plan. It's no coincidence that guys like Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Eddie House are having career years. Chauncey Billups, [Kobe] Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki and Allen Iverson are in the hunt as well, but Nash rates the edge right now."

Raja Bell has not improved from last year. Eddie House has not improved from last year. Boris Diaw is shooting better, but he's also rebounding better, getting more assists, blocking more shots, and turning the ball over less. I fail to see what Nash could have taught Diaw regarding rebounding and shot-blocking that would have made him improve. And what does the Suns' improvement on defense have to do with Nash being an MVP candidate? Moreover, how could it be a detriment?

I'm bothered by everyone's arbitrary decision to latch on to Nash above Marion (and Stoudemire last year), but I'm even more bothered that no one will even mention Marion as an MVP candidate this year. The guy leads the Suns in scoring, rebounds, steals, and blocks, and he plays more minutes. Someone, please tell me: why is he not an MVP candidate?

EDIT: Yes, I know Marion's ranked 15th in PER as of today - not quite MVP territory. The point is, why Nash over Marion, if you're going to pick one?

[Ben]

I just read that article. I don't agree with the pick, but I admire the consitency. If Nash was your MVP last year, I don't see how you could pick anybody else this year. I would probably go with Kobe at this point. Possibly Lebron.

[antcole]

Yeah it bothers me too that Shawn Marion gets screwed out of the praise he deserves. It gets on my nerves when "experts" like Marc Stein honestly believes that Nash is the sole reason why this team is succeeding. Hello, am I the only one who notices that the offense has declines from incredible to very good, because of Amare's injury. Am I the only one who has noticed that the Suns' half court defense has improved significantly. Its not hard to tell that Marion is just as valuable to the Suns (if not more valuable than Nash, because of his vastly superior defense). Hell he was just as valuable as Nash was last year, but he received no credit for Phoenix's success because he wasn't the new guy coming in on his horse and magically saving the day . He doesn't receive any attention unless he's doing poorly in the post season. Shawn Marion is basketball's version of an offensive lineman.

[Analyze This]

Last year the defense of the Suns was not good. This year the defense improved a lot. Marion played for both versions of the Suns, so I don't see why you give him the biggest credit for the improved defense. If he was a good defender last and this year; why were the Suns very bad in defense last and good in defense this year. I think that Diaw and Bell have more to do with the improved defense. They stepped in for bad defenders and that's the main reason the Suns improved on defense. Of course the matrix is a very good player but Marion for mvp? I suggest that you look again to the Suns-Spurs series in last year play-offs. Marion was horrible. And I suspect that the Spurs intended to cover Nash and Stoudemire also. It's not because some people underestimate Shawn that others need to do the exact opposite.

[Mike G]

A couple of years ago, someone said Marion was 'so underrated, he doesn't even make the Most Underrated lists'.
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36% of all statistics are wrong

[94by50]

[94by50]

[Ben]

[Kevin Pelton]

[Analyze This]

@94by50. It was not just 5 games but the most important 5 games of the season. If you play as bad as Marion did I can not consider you as the most valuable player of your team (and I'm not talking about the award). In those games the mvp must step up. The whole season is on the line. Nash (who was for me not the mvp of the nba last year) and Stoudemire did, Marion did the opposite. He played horrible in the most important games of the season. There is no excuse for that.

In 2003 the Suns had a 44-38 record with Amare with Johnson, with Marion and with Marbury.

In 2004 the Suns had a 29-53 record with Amare (55 g) with Johnson, with Marion and with Marbury.

In 2005, the first season of Nash they had a 62-20 record. And in that same season Amare gets his big break through. It seems to me that the impact of Nash on the Suns is much much bigger than the impact of Marion. The 20O3 and 2004 Phoenix teams were very talented but they were at the best a bit above 50%. With Nash they get the best record of the league. So his impact is bigger.

The reason the Suns improved on defense is that Bell and Diaw are better defenders than Johnson and the human 3 point attempt. I never said Nash has something to do with it.

[FrontRange]

First . .it's crazy not to admit Nash is fantastic player for the Suns. Not to take anything away from Marion (who may still be underrated) but difference between Nash other so-called top PG in the league is pretty obvious on the offensive end (exchange Nash and Miller for instance, and the Nugs are probably a 60 win team - Bob any sim comments?).

Second . . .perhaps the improvement in defense also has to do with the loss of Amare who certianly brings more to the table than he takes off but warching him last year he didn't strike me as a fully developed defensive player yet. LB certainly felt so in the Olympics.

[bchaikin]

Nash has had the best on-court/off-court plus-minus of this group each of the last two years. How do you justify that?

+/- is strongly dependant on who your backup is and who you play alongside. through simulation i can show a team winning close to as many games as they do in real life with players playing the same amount of total minutes and min/g but with vastly different +/- numbers for players based on how a team's substitution pattern is arranged...

Caveats: It was close last year with Marion and Diaw is far and away the team leader this year.

marion is currently leading the suns in scoring, rebounding, steals, and shot blocking, and is a better overall shooter than diaw. he also plays 10 more min/g than does diaw. simulation shows him generating 10 more wins per average 82 game season than does diaw (if both played 40 min/g)....

so just what praytell is it that diaw is leading the team in that would make him more of a team leader than marion? there is literally no better player in the league that leads his team by example than shawn marion. his turnover rate per touch is as low as steve nash, which is excellent for a frontcourt player. he is personally responsible for few team possessions where the suns do not score because he is not responsible for much of:

- missed FGAs rebounded by the defense (he has a high Scoring FG%)
- missed FTs rebounded by the defense (he's at 76% from the line)
- he commits few turnovers

but he is personally responsible for the opponent getting many team possessions with no points scored (by getting alot of steals and blocks and playing good D), yet does so without committing many fouls, similar to how a player like ben wallace does....

and because of his high Scoring FG% and very low turnovers he is about as efficient a scorer as there is in the league. his points scored per zero point team possession (those 3 categories listed above) is among the league's very best...

Well, if Nash doesn't contribute defensively, then he had better clearly be the most important offensive contributor on his team. And, frankly, I don't think this was ever the case - not this year, not last year.

I think the numbers bear out that he is.

i think not...

nash is an average defender at best, and i would say he is a worse than average defender. he gets few steals and no blocks, and is a not a good offensive rebounder (he is a good defensive rebounder for a PG). he is clearly one of the best PGs on offense in the league, if not the best, but that does not outweigh his defensive deficiencies...

simulation shows he is not generating wins at the same rate as PGs such as chauncey billups or jason kidd, on a per minute basis. billups is a slightly better overall shooter than nash (Scoring FG%), commits less turnovers per touch (and almost 1/2 as many turnovers per game), and while he is as poor as nash at getting off rebs, steals, and blocks, is a significantly better defender. nash gets 3 more ast/g than does billups (11.5 - 8.5) but is that worth almost 2 more turnovers per game than what billups gives up?...

marion is playing better than he ever has, is generating wins now as good as the best in the league - like players such as elton brand, tim duncan, kevin garnett, just as he also did last season. but he has also played almost as well in previous seasons, including when nash wasn't around....

nash is a very good PG, but he gets far too much credit for the suns success. dirk nowitzki has played better since nash left dallas - i don't see anyone saying this is due to nash's absence. but many say the suns are better strictly because of him - as if they could not win with any other PG in his place....

yet the mavs won as many games with jason terry as their starting PG as they did with nash, but the same people that are saying the suns couldn't win without nash are most likely the same people that said the mavs couldn't win with a starting PG from the lowly atlanta hawks replacing steve nash, and are probably the same people who would say the suns couldn't win with jason terry as their starting PG rather than nash...

the suns had a great offense last season because of players like marion and amare stoudemire and nash. the suns are very good this season again, not just on offense despite the absence of stoudemire, but also because they have been one of the very best defensive teams this year - they currently have the league's 4th lowest defensive points allowed per possession mark, and they were 3rd best just a week ago. is this also due to steve nash?...

the reality is that shawn marion is one of the very best players in the league today on both sides of the ball and in terms of generating wins for his team, and was so last season, as he does very much that is positive and very little negative on both offense and defense. he is a legitimate MVP candidate, this year and last...

[Analyze This]

If you play as bad as Marion did in the 5 most important games of the year I can not consider you as the most valuable player of your team (and I'm not talking about the award). In those games the mvp must step up. The whole season is on the line. Nash and Stoudemire did, Marion did the opposite. Simulate that.

And I must say that I don't know in detail how your simulation system works, because the info in detail(!!) (I've read the basic stuff) is not public available. So how do I know that I must consider your sims as valuable? I know how the roland rating works (with the + and negative aspects)), I know Hollinger his methods and I know Dean Oliver his work. I can give a value to their work because I know the methods.

[94by50]

I'm at work, so I can't respond at length right now. If y'all let me get home, I'd appreciate the opportunity to respond.

[Mike G]