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[Eli W]

So who got the better end of this Knicks/Bulls deal? Curry is widely seen as having much greater potential, but statistically they look very similar.

Both are 22 but Curry has been in the league four years while Sweetney has played only two. They both have very high PSA's (1.17 for Curry, 1.18 for Sweetney). They both turn the ball over a lot, don't pass the ball well, and are poor defenders. Both have dealt with weight issues.

The big difference I see is that Sweetney is a PF while Curry can play PF and C. Curry also has a higher usage rate and doesn't foul as often. However, Sweetney is a much better rebounder.

Do these players have similar potentials? Or is there some reason to think Curry has a much higher ceiling?

[dogra]

I'm curious, does anyone know the measurements for Sweetney's and Curry's respective wingspans?

Curry has three inches in height over Sweetney, but Sweet-n-low may actually weigh more. Is that right?

I think the main reason that Curry is ranked as having more potential value is because he is tall enough to play center. If Sweetney were 6'11", he might be considered as having more upside because of his clearly superior rebounding.

Do those 3 inches in height really mean that much? I would guess Sweetney's wingspan is at least close to Curry's; his weight is too, but Sweetney seems to know how to use his body much better (though he's so active, he gets called for a LOT of fouls).

[Eli W]

Sweetney is 6'7.25" without shoes, 6'8" with shoes, he has a 7'1" wingspan and a 8'11.5" standing reach.

Curry is 6'10.25" without shoes, 6'11.75" with shoes, and he has a 7'6.5" wing span.

[dogra]

Then I think the main reasons people see Curry as having a higher ceiling are the bigger size, superior athleticism, bigger wingspan, and -- importantly-- the position his bigger size allows him to play.

Talented centers are just in much higher demand than talented power forwards. They're rarer.

[jambalaya]

According to the current position assignment method at 82 games, Sweetney played 90% of his minutes at center for the Knicks and Curry played 100% of his at center this last season.

They both "can" play either position.

Though they have quite small sample sizes to compare to their main position assignment this past year, the counterpart stats show Sweetney better at center (especially on offense). But he played or was assigned PF two-thirds of the time the year before that, and was better there because of very bad defense at center.

With Curry the results this year are mixed and certainly of limited value due to very small size: he is a better at center on defense but had an unusually high offensive PER at power forward in his few minutes there. The previous year he split his time 50-50 and he was modestly better at center because of better defense.

Did these players position usage change dramatically? A question for closer observers, but on quick consideration perhaps is mostly explained by low minutes gotten from Chandler (requiring more use then of Curry at PF) and the presence of Mutumbo (reducing room/need for newbie Sweetney at center) in 2003-04 season in each case. (But did the player assignment formula change between seasons and perhaps help produce some of the swings too? Just wondering.)

I could see some use of James / Curry lineups in New York. Sweetney's use in Chicago depends in part on whether Antonio Davis loops back as rumored.

[dogra]

Very interesting. I knew Sweetney played some center, but had no idea he spent 90% of his time there.

But wasn't the question "why do people seem to think Curry has more potential?"

I'm not saying the perceptions are right. Not at all. But I think most people see Curry as the mythical, "endangered" big man and Sweetney as the chubby, undersized PF.

No?

[jambalaya]

Yes, but the 82games data can call for re-examination of that distinction.

And further understanding of the data too from various sources.

.2004-05 2003-04

Sweetney
82 games, 90% at C 65% at PF
hoopsstats 85% at PF 99% at PF


Curry
82games 100% at C 50% at each
Hoopsstat 100% at C 100% at C (apparently but not totally sure)

I am contacting hoopsstat to ask about their player assignment method.

[dogra]

Agreed.

Curry's "potential" appears to be overrated by many. And Sweetney's "upside" seems to be underrated by lots of people.

Looking closer at the numbers makes these views appear highly debatable.

[gkrndija]

This should be a steal for Chicago as long as Chandler is willing to play C and Sweetney is given minutes. There is no reason why Chandler can't be an effective Center, and better than Curry, especially with his contract out of the way. If Marus Camby is strong enough to play center, most pf should be able to play that position.

[Eli W]

Take that 82games positional data with a grain of salt. They say Sweetney played 90% of his minutes as center because according to them, whenever Sweetney and Kurt Thomas were on the court together, Sweetney was playing center. That's an arbitrary determination they made which fails to account for who was guarding the opposing center. And given that Thomas is taller than Sweetney, it's especially strange that they would say he was the PF when Sweetney was on the court. However, it does appear that Sweetney was almost never on the court at the same time as Nazr Mohammed, which suggests that the two played the same positional role for the Knicks.

[Roland_Beech]

I would agree our positional stuff is just a guideline

You have a lot of issues to try and deal with -- first you probably need some separate offense/defense %'s since some guys may play more of one position on end than the other, and then what is a small forward versus a shooting guard anyway? there's quite a lot of overlap and ambiguity in role to begin with

even with all the extra charting this season I'm not sure we'll try that hard to label players by position

[MDC]

Do we have a CBA/trade mechanics wiz here? Because the media is reporting that Curry's contract starts at around $10 mil, but I'm not getting the numbers to work.

Knicks' maximum incoming salaries: 125% * ($13,975,000 (Thomas) + $2,100,000 (Sweets) + $900,000 (JJ)) + $100,000 = $21,318,750.

$21,318,750 = ($13,925,000 (Davis) + $925,000 (Davis's trade kicker)) + x (Curry's new first year salary); x = $6,468,750?

Is this correct?

This would mean that Curry's contract, assuming max raises and a full 6 years, would total $49,000,781 and he would have maximum salary in year 6 at ~$9.8 mil?
_________________
_______________________________________
Nicholas Hunt

[jambalaya]

I received a response from Jorje at hoopsstats.com and it read in part:

"If I understand well, you ask me what criteria I use to assign a
position to a player, in a boxscore.

This is serious question. The answer is that it depends from player's
minutes and his teammates' minutes. Using players' minutes, I can
understand at what position a player played most of his minutes. I use an
example below for further understanding.

Suppose we've this boxscore ->
http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/boxscores/chicago-bulls-vs-memphis-grizzlies/2005-03-28/05/4/

Chicago Bulls use Antonio Davis ( 19 min ) and Eddy Curry ( 36 min )
as starters. Tyson Chandler ( 34 min ) comes off the bench, so the
question is what position we assign to Tyson Chandler ? Well, if Curry is C
( he started at C and he's a natural C ) we've 12 minutes left at C
position. So, even if Chandler played 12 min at C, we consider him PF in
this game because he played at least 36-12=24 min at PF. Even if
Othella Harrington ( 7 min ) was used at PF ( was used in C by Scott Skiles), Chandler still has 48-19-7=22 min, at least, at PF. In any occasion,
Chandler played most of his minutes at PF, so we assign him as PF in
this game. This rule has been followed in every boxscore and, believe me, there are very few situations we can disagree about players' position.
I tried to eliminate mistakes, mainly because players' position is the
cornerstone for backcourt-frontcourt stats. "


I replied:

" It appears to assume that starters dont change their position much within a game, or least that they can be safely assumed to play the majority of their minutes there and then that the position assignment of the substitutes can be deduced with the assumption that the starter played the same position their entire time on the court. This may work reasonably well, especially since you are mainly concerned about where a majority of a players minutes are played, not every single one; but to the extent that fans are interested in player performance by different positions it is not completely accurate play to play. As of now, there is no completely accurate by visual confirmation system anywhere that I know of. I should also however that while 82 games starts with height, I am told they do adjust based on known performance patterns so literal height alignment is not followed rigidly and most anomalies are avoided.

Still I was surprised by the position assignmnet variations for Curry and Sweetney over 2 years and will continue to think about it and take both sets of stats as rough guides and not the last word.

Thanks for again for the reply and the impressively flexible and quick database."

[jambalaya]

With 25% variation allowed for salries in trades now, the total Knicks salaries taken could be up to 25% more than that $21million and change. So the reports of Curry getting $55-60 million total seems possible but a pretty wide range of starting salaries is possible and the good guess / leak has not emerged yet.

[MDC]