APBRmetrics

[Ilardi]

Hi All,

I'm trying to get quickly up to speed on recent developments in advanced NBA video analysis, and I'm hoping someone out there might be willing to post a brief overview of the tools and resources available via Synergy and others. For example, someone on the forum a few months ago mentioned that Synergy provides in-depth breakdowns and analysis of player performance in various game situations - e.g., avg points allowed when defending the pick-and-roll. What, exactly, is the extent (and limit) of the analytic possibilities currently available?

(Also, of course, if this topic has been extensively covered in a previous thread, I'd be grateful for a link. I ran a quick search and came up empty, but I suspect I must have missed something.)

Thanks in advance!

[Ilardi]

Thanks to those who have provided valuable information on Synergy/other video resources via back-channel messaging. I guess now that I'm in the employ of a team it may be a little harder to solicit help from the APBRmetrics community (completely understandable).

[mikez]

Sorry Steve. But congrats on the job!

-MZ

[Chronz1]

Its a nice teaser tool but you cant help but wonder what the pro-gm version looks like. Some of the play types are misleading for example if Chris Bosh gets the ball in the post turns and faces up and shoots a jumper that counts as a post play when its essentially just an isolation move, Im thinking they should break them down into back to the basket post moves, post drives, and face up moves.

Id also like to see them implement double team frequency because your pretty much limited to plays that cost a possession which is nice but some teams try to limit players FG/A by swarming them and getting the ball out of their hand. Also Id like to know the expected success rate of a player based on the defenders success rate defending that play.

Aside from that its awesome, its made crushing a few longheld beliefs much easier.

[Ilardi]

Thanks, Chronz.

Hey, out of curiosity: what were some of the longheld beliefs that Synergy helped crush?

[schtevie]

He'll tell you, if you post the 6 year APMs.

[Chronz1]

[bchaikin]

they only make highlight plays that brainwash me into overrating their defense...

cleveland had the league's 3rd best defense (lowest pts/poss allowed) the past 2 seasons, just a half a point per 100 possessions more/worse than the league best defense of orlando. the last 4 seasons (06-07 to 09-10) they again had the league's 3rd best defense as a team, just 0.6 pts per 100 possessions worse than the best team on defense in the league boston. that means that over a long 4 year stretch, 27 teams in the league were worse on defense than cleveland (only boston and san antonio were better since 06-07)...

these 4 years james played 12237 regular season minutes, 1/7 to 1/6 of the total minutes played on cleveland from 06-07 to 09-10. only 4 other cavs players played even as many as 5000 total minutes these 4 years - anderson varejao (7724 minutes), an excellent defender, and zydrunas ilgauskas (7456 min), daniel gibson (5616 min), and mo williams (5193 min), three players none of which would be considered all-D team performers...

combined all 5 players played close to 1/2 of the team's total minutes played since 06-07. 3 of the next 5 players to play the most minutes on the cavs (2500-4500 minutes) since 06-07 include drew gooden, sasha pavlovic, and damon jones - not exactly defensive stalwarts...

if lebron james was not an excellent defender these 4 years, just who else praytell (other than varejao) was playing excellent defense on cleveland such that the team was 3rd best in the league over the past 4 years?...

also the last 2 seasons james got the 2nd most votes for the all-D team (next to only dwight howard), and finished 2nd and 4th in the DPOY voting. just out of curiosity, what might you have seen or read on Synergy that makes you believe james has not been an excellent defender?...

[greyberger]

Forgive me if I'm wrong - because it was a little confusing - but what I think he was saying was Synergy helped him realize Lebron was a good defender after all.

[Chronz1]

[Chronz1]