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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 242
Location: Arlington, Texas
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 Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 4:01 am Post subject: College Basketball Player Ratings |
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OK, a little over a month ago I gave my NBA player ratings at the All Star break:
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2505
Well, I also do college basketball player ratings, and I thought I'd share a little here. The college ratings are also linear weights based, with adjustments made for SoS, team pace, team defense, playing time (particularly in relation to overall team quality), etc. 100 would be considered around an "average" D1 player. It's a ratio - so 200 would be theoretically twice as good as the average D1 player, 50 would be half as good.
What got me posting today was my watching ESPN, and Tony Kornheiser claiming that it was "obvious" that the three best players remaining in the tourney were Wall (UK), Turner (OSU), and Johnson (Syracuse). I had suspicions that if I dusted off my college ratings - those probably wouldn't necessarily be the top 3. So, here are my rankings of the 133 players remaining in the tourney that played over 287 total minutes (I chose 287 minutes so I could get Lewis Jackson in there who has been playing solid minutes for Purdue now that he's back). At least 3 players off my head are ranked here but haven't played or won't be playing anymore games - #5 Hummel (injury), #32 Tyler (kicked off team), and #34 Lucas (injury).
Rnk Name Team M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% RAT
1 DeMarcus Cousins Ken. 23.3 15.1 10.0 1.0 0.9 1.9 1.9 0.569 184
2 Evan Turner OSU. 35.6 20.0 9.2 6.0 1.8 0.9 4.3 0.577 180
3 Jacob Pullen KSU. 31.1 19.2 2.6 3.5 1.7 0.1 2.5 0.594 179
4 Omar Samhan SMC. 32.2 21.5 10.9 1.0 0.5 2.9 2.2 0.590 177
5 Robbie Hummel Pur. 30.3 15.7 6.9 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.592 176
6 Quincy Pondexter Was. 32.4 19.7 7.5 1.8 1.3 0.6 1.8 0.607 175
7 Jon Scheyer Duke 36.6 18.1 3.5 4.9 1.7 0.2 1.7 0.564 173
8 Jordan Eglseder NIU. 21.6 12.0 7.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.563 171
9 Jordan Crawford Xav. 32.4 20.2 4.8 2.9 1.4 0.2 2.4 0.563 167
10 JaJuan Johnson Pur. 31.3 15.3 7.2 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.8 0.553 166
11 Da'Sean Butler WVU. 35.8 17.5 6.3 3.3 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.544 165
12 Gordon Hayward But. 33.1 15.2 8.3 1.8 1.1 0.8 2.2 0.596 165
13 John Wall Ken. 34.7 16.8 4.1 6.5 1.7 0.5 4.0 0.563 159
14 E'Twaun Moore Pur. 31.4 16.4 3.8 2.7 1.4 0.3 2.1 0.530 158
15 Draymond Green MSU. 25.4 9.8 8.1 3.1 1.3 0.9 1.7 0.565 157
16 Patrick Patterson Ken. 32.8 14.6 7.2 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.630 156
17 Kyle Singler Duke 35.7 17.7 7.0 2.3 1.0 0.8 1.9 0.541 155
18 Wayne Chism Ten. 26.6 12.3 7.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.543 155
19 Kevin Jones WVU. 32.7 13.6 7.2 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.589 155
20 Ekpe Udoh Bay. 35.2 13.9 9.7 2.6 0.8 3.8 2.5 0.539 155
21 Curtis Kelly KSU. 24.6 11.2 6.2 1.5 0.9 1.9 2.6 0.594 154
22 Wes Johnson Syr. 34.8 16.5 8.5 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.3 0.594 153
23 Shelvin Mack But. 30.8 14.1 3.6 3.1 1.3 0.1 2.1 0.573 152
24 Adam Koch NIU. 25.1 11.6 4.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.593 150
25 LaceDarius Dunn Bay. 32.7 19.4 4.9 1.9 1.3 0.3 2.6 0.599 149
26 Jeff Foote Cor. 27.7 12.4 8.1 2.3 0.5 1.9 2.5 0.623 147
27 Jamar Samuels KSU. 23.5 11.3 5.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.7 0.579 146
28 Denis Clemente KSU. 34.3 16.3 2.3 4.2 1.1 0.1 2.0 0.520 145
29 Jason Love Xav. 27.4 11.8 8.5 0.9 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.591 143
30 Ryan Wittman Cor. 33.8 17.8 4.0 1.8 1.1 0.4 1.7 0.623 143
31 J.P. Prince Ten. 24.7 9.7 3.8 2.9 1.5 0.5 2.3 0.565 143
32 Tyler Smith Ten. 26.8 11.7 4.7 3.7 1.4 0.3 1.3 0.609 142
33 Brian Zoubek Duke 17.9 5.6 7.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.621 142
34 Kalin Lucas MSU. 31.1 14.8 1.9 4.0 1.2 0.1 2.4 0.551 141
35 Matt Howard But. 25.7 12.0 5.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.592 140
36 Devin Ebanks WVU. 33.9 12.0 8.3 2.5 1.0 0.7 2.0 0.513 140
37 Raymar Morgan MSU. 27.2 11.6 6.2 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.9 0.575 139
38 Louis Dale Cor. 28.2 12.6 2.9 4.8 1.3 0.1 2.2 0.581 139
39 Nolan Smith Duke 35.2 17.2 2.8 2.9 1.3 0.2 1.8 0.532 139
40 Rick Jackson Syr. 26.0 9.9 7.0 1.7 1.0 2.0 1.9 0.581 138
41 Tweety Carter Bay. 36.4 15.1 2.8 6.0 1.3 0.0 2.5 0.573 138
42 Isaiah Thomas Was. 31.1 17.1 4.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 2.3 0.536 137
43 Arinze Onuaku Syr. 22.8 10.5 5.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.636 137
44 Scoop Jardine Syr. 22.1 8.9 2.0 4.3 1.2 0.1 1.9 0.574 136
45 Rodney McGruder KSU. 12.8 4.0 2.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.611 134
46 William Buford OSU. 34.2 14.4 5.7 3.1 1.1 0.3 1.8 0.523 134
47 Andy Rautins Syr. 32.3 12.0 3.3 5.0 2.0 0.2 2.7 0.625 133
48 Dominique Sutton KSU. 23.7 7.5 5.8 1.9 1.3 0.2 1.7 0.526 133
49 Mickey McConnell SMC. 36.1 14.0 2.4 5.2 1.5 0.2 2.2 0.661 132
50 Jamel McLean Xav. 24.3 8.6 7.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.548 130
51 Kris Joseph Syr. 27.6 11.0 5.5 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.8 0.568 130
52 Cameron Tatum Ten. 17.2 7.3 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.566 130
53 Bobby Maze Ten. 25.2 9.4 2.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 1.4 0.502 129
54 Delvon Roe MSU. 20.4 6.6 5.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.587 129
55 Quincy Acy Bay. 23.1 9.2 5.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.700 128
56 Chris Kramer Pur. 27.7 6.7 3.0 2.3 1.7 0.4 1.4 0.637 128
57 Matthew Bryan-Amaning Was. 22.5 9.0 5.9 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.550 127
58 Eric Bledsoe Ken. 30.4 11.4 3.0 2.9 1.5 0.3 3.1 0.569 127
59 Josh Lomers Bay. 17.4 6.7 3.7 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.713 127
60 Scotty Hopson Ten. 27.7 12.5 3.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 2.1 0.523 127
61 David Lighty OSU. 36.6 12.8 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.5 2.3 0.574 127
62 Jon Diebler OSU. 37.1 13.3 2.8 1.5 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.647 126
63 Jake Koch NIU. 13.4 3.4 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.569 126
64 Jon Jaques Cor. 16.9 7.0 2.7 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.679 126
65 Lucas O'Rear NIU. 19.0 4.2 4.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.570 126
66 Dallas Lauderdale OSU. 25.0 6.6 5.2 0.2 0.7 2.2 0.9 0.683 125
67 Terrell Holloway Xav. 31.4 11.7 2.3 3.9 1.2 0.1 1.9 0.557 124
68 Brandon Triche Syr. 21.4 8.3 1.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 2.0 0.594 124
69 Brian Williams Ten. 18.0 5.2 6.1 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.496 124
70 Darryl Bryant WVU. 24.3 9.3 2.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 2.0 0.497 124
71 Ben Allen SMC. 27.4 10.5 7.6 2.2 0.6 0.7 1.6 0.594 124
72 Wellington Smith WVU. 23.2 6.5 4.0 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.560 123
73 Miles Plumlee Duke 16.6 5.4 4.9 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.589 123
74 Willie Veasley But. 30.8 10.2 4.3 1.0 1.1 0.3 1.8 0.594 120
75 Melvin Goins Ten. 15.8 5.3 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.0 1.2 0.475 120
76 Ali Farokhmanesh NIU. 30.3 9.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.557 120
77 Darius Miller Ken. 20.8 6.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.540 119
78 Venoy Overton Was. 23.0 8.5 2.9 3.2 1.3 0.1 2.3 0.553 119
79 Durrell Summers MSU. 25.5 10.7 4.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 0.530 119
80 Keaton Grant Pur. 22.7 6.6 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.499 119
81 Darnell Dodson Ken. 14.9 6.2 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.522 119
82 Matthew Dellavedova SMC. 36.3 12.3 3.5 4.4 1.2 0.0 2.0 0.569 118
83 Kwadzo Ahelegbe NIU. 29.5 10.6 3.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 2.9 0.481 118
84 Jeremie Simmons OSU. 12.2 4.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.579 117
85 Chris Allen MSU. 25.8 8.6 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 1.5 0.557 117
86 Ronald Nored But. 29.4 6.1 2.8 3.7 1.6 0.1 1.9 0.484 116
87 Daniel Orton Ken. 13.3 3.5 3.5 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.527 116
88 Chris Wroblewski Cor. 29.5 9.0 2.7 3.2 0.9 0.0 1.8 0.607 116
89 Zach Hahn But. 16.2 5.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.645 115
90 Justin Holiday Was. 21.8 5.6 4.4 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.482 114
91 Elston Turner Was. 15.1 5.5 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.526 112
92 Kenny Hall Ten. 13.0 3.8 3.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.583 112
93 Mason Plumlee Duke 14.8 4.0 3.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.480 112
94 Mark Lyons Xav. 22.4 7.9 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 1.7 0.499 112
95 John Flowers WVU. 14.0 2.9 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.475 111
96 Johnny Moran NIU. 26.4 5.6 3.3 1.5 1.1 0.0 1.2 0.460 111
97 Kenny Frease Xav. 16.6 5.2 4.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.509 111
98 Dante Jackson Xav. 25.4 6.4 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.1 1.8 0.555 109
99 Anthony Jones Bay. 26.5 6.5 4.8 1.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.492 109
100 Brad Redford Xav. 13.5 5.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.637 108
101 Geoff Reeves Cor. 18.2 5.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.664 108
102 Mark Coury Cor. 11.0 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.558 107
103 Lance Thomas Duke 24.9 4.9 4.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.5 0.512 106
104 Andre Dawkins Duke 13.2 4.8 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.547 106
105 A.J. Walton Bay. 17.6 3.8 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.1 1.3 0.578 106
106 P.J. Hill OSU. 12.2 3.2 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.621 104
107 DeAndre Liggins Ken. 15.4 3.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.521 104
108 Korie Lucious MSU. 21.6 5.2 1.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 1.7 0.457 104
109 Clint Steindl SMC. 23.8 7.0 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.580 103
110 Kerwin Dunham NIU. 20.1 3.6 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.522 101
111 Marc Sonnen NIU. 11.2 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.542 99
112 Scott Suggs Was. 14.1 4.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.549 97
113 Mitchell Young SMC. 13.9 4.1 2.9 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.530 96
114 Adam Wire Cor. 11.9 1.9 2.6 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.564 95
115 Joe Mazzulla WVU. 14.9 2.2 1.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.436 94
116 Ryne Smith Pur. 12.4 2.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.491 93
117 Lewis Jackson Pur. 19.1 2.6 2.6 3.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.364 93
118 Renaldo Woolridge Ten. 13.0 3.4 2.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.485 93
119 Shawn Vanzant But. 14.7 2.8 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.463 92
120 Kelsey Barlow Pur. 16.1 3.4 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.438 92
121 Skylar McBee Ten. 13.1 3.4 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.502 90
122 Luis Colon KSU. 14.7 3.0 3.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.418 89
123 Andrew Taylor Xav. 9.8 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.538 88
124 Wally Judge KSU. 11.4 3.3 2.9 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.463 88
125 Darnell Gant Was. 11.7 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.446 84
126 Jorden Page SMC. 16.0 3.8 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.544 83
127 Abdul Gaddy Was. 18.3 4.0 1.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 1.7 0.441 82
128 Tyreese Breshers Was. 9.9 3.0 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.458 81
129 Kyle Madsen OSU. 13.5 2.5 1.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.584 80
130 Ramon Harris Ken. 11.3 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.423 80
131 Martavious Irving KSU. 10.4 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.387 73
132 Avery Jukes But. 10.3 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.511 72
133 Steven Pearl Ten. 11.0 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.446 67
Sorry I can't make it look "prettier".
My numbers suggest that John Wall is a bit overrated, and that Cousins is a stud and his insane production still makes up for his lower mpg.
Egleseder of Northern Iowa is easily the biggest surprise at #8. His rating per minute is Cousins level - considering Northern Iowa's incredibly slow pace (N Iowa is 342nd in the nation in adjusted tempo according to Pomeroy) and very good defense more than makes up for their somewhat weaker SoS.
All that being said - I kinda give myself a 5% leeway when comparing player ratings (one could still subjectively claim one guy could be ranked ahead of another if their rating is within 5% of the other player's rating). I personally think Evan Turner is the best player in the nation - and was fairly relieved to see his rating stay within 5% of Cousins. Pullen being right on Turner's heels also surprised me.
Wall ranked lower than most would expect because he wasn't all that awe-inspiring statistically. He plays on a faster paced team than most, their SoS was OK, he gets lots of assists but turns the ball over way to much, and he scores well and fairly efficiently - but not great. I REALLY hope he doesn't win the Wooden award - I think it'd be a shame that a guy like Turner could lose out to a one and done kid who really wasn't as good. If Beasley, who was INCREDIBLE statistically as a freshman - easily the best in the nation, couldn't win it over Hansbrough - Wall better not win it this season.
_________________
Dan
My current national college player rankings (and other stuff):
http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statmans-ratings-56243/index6.html#post355594 |
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 242
Location: Arlington, Texas
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 4:04 am Post subject: |
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Here's the same list - sorted by team:
Rnk Name Team M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% RAT
20 Ekpe Udoh Bay. 35.2 13.9 9.7 2.6 0.8 3.8 2.5 0.539 155
25 LaceDarius Dunn Bay. 32.7 19.4 4.9 1.9 1.3 0.3 2.6 0.599 149
41 Tweety Carter Bay. 36.4 15.1 2.8 6.0 1.3 0.0 2.5 0.573 138
55 Quincy Acy Bay. 23.1 9.2 5.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.700 128
59 Josh Lomers Bay. 17.4 6.7 3.7 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.713 127
99 Anthony Jones Bay. 26.5 6.5 4.8 1.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.492 109
105 A.J. Walton Bay. 17.6 3.8 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.1 1.3 0.578 106
12 Gordon Hayward But. 33.1 15.2 8.3 1.8 1.1 0.8 2.2 0.596 165
23 Shelvin Mack But. 30.8 14.1 3.6 3.1 1.3 0.1 2.1 0.573 152
35 Matt Howard But. 25.7 12.0 5.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.592 140
74 Willie Veasley But. 30.8 10.2 4.3 1.0 1.1 0.3 1.8 0.594 120
86 Ronald Nored But. 29.4 6.1 2.8 3.7 1.6 0.1 1.9 0.484 116
89 Zach Hahn But. 16.2 5.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.645 115
119 Shawn Vanzant But. 14.7 2.8 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.463 92
132 Avery Jukes But. 10.3 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.511 72
26 Jeff Foote Cor. 27.7 12.4 8.1 2.3 0.5 1.9 2.5 0.623 147
30 Ryan Wittman Cor. 33.8 17.8 4.0 1.8 1.1 0.4 1.7 0.623 143
38 Louis Dale Cor. 28.2 12.6 2.9 4.8 1.3 0.1 2.2 0.581 139
64 Jon Jaques Cor. 16.9 7.0 2.7 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.679 126
88 Chris Wroblewski Cor. 29.5 9.0 2.7 3.2 0.9 0.0 1.8 0.607 116
101 Geoff Reeves Cor. 18.2 5.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.664 108
102 Mark Coury Cor. 11.0 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.558 107
114 Adam Wire Cor. 11.9 1.9 2.6 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.564 95
7 Jon Scheyer Duke 36.6 18.1 3.5 4.9 1.7 0.2 1.7 0.564 173
17 Kyle Singler Duke 35.7 17.7 7.0 2.3 1.0 0.8 1.9 0.541 155
33 Brian Zoubek Duke 17.9 5.6 7.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.621 142
39 Nolan Smith Duke 35.2 17.2 2.8 2.9 1.3 0.2 1.8 0.532 139
73 Miles Plumlee Duke 16.6 5.4 4.9 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.589 123
93 Mason Plumlee Duke 14.8 4.0 3.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.480 112
103 Lance Thomas Duke 24.9 4.9 4.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.5 0.512 106
104 Andre Dawkins Duke 13.2 4.8 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.547 106
1 DeMarcus Cousins Ken. 23.3 15.1 10.0 1.0 0.9 1.9 1.9 0.569 184
13 John Wall Ken. 34.7 16.8 4.1 6.5 1.7 0.5 4.0 0.563 159
16 Patrick Patterson Ken. 32.8 14.6 7.2 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.630 156
58 Eric Bledsoe Ken. 30.4 11.4 3.0 2.9 1.5 0.3 3.1 0.569 127
77 Darius Miller Ken. 20.8 6.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.540 119
81 Darnell Dodson Ken. 14.9 6.2 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.522 119
87 Daniel Orton Ken. 13.3 3.5 3.5 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.527 116
107 DeAndre Liggins Ken. 15.4 3.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.521 104
130 Ramon Harris Ken. 11.3 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.423 80
3 Jacob Pullen KSU. 31.1 19.2 2.6 3.5 1.7 0.1 2.5 0.594 179
21 Curtis Kelly KSU. 24.6 11.2 6.2 1.5 0.9 1.9 2.6 0.594 154
27 Jamar Samuels KSU. 23.5 11.3 5.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.7 0.579 146
28 Denis Clemente KSU. 34.3 16.3 2.3 4.2 1.1 0.1 2.0 0.520 145
45 Rodney McGruder KSU. 12.8 4.0 2.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.611 134
48 Dominique Sutton KSU. 23.7 7.5 5.8 1.9 1.3 0.2 1.7 0.526 133
122 Luis Colon KSU. 14.7 3.0 3.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.418 89
124 Wally Judge KSU. 11.4 3.3 2.9 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.463 88
131 Martavious Irving KSU. 10.4 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.387 73
15 Draymond Green MSU. 25.4 9.8 8.1 3.1 1.3 0.9 1.7 0.565 157
34 Kalin Lucas MSU. 31.1 14.8 1.9 4.0 1.2 0.1 2.4 0.551 141
37 Raymar Morgan MSU. 27.2 11.6 6.2 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.9 0.575 139
54 Delvon Roe MSU. 20.4 6.6 5.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.587 129
79 Durrell Summers MSU. 25.5 10.7 4.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 0.530 119
85 Chris Allen MSU. 25.8 8.6 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 1.5 0.557 117
108 Korie Lucious MSU. 21.6 5.2 1.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 1.7 0.457 104
8 Jordan Eglseder NIU. 21.6 12.0 7.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.563 171
24 Adam Koch NIU. 25.1 11.6 4.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.593 150
63 Jake Koch NIU. 13.4 3.4 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.569 126
65 Lucas O'Rear NIU. 19.0 4.2 4.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.570 126
76 Ali Farokhmanesh NIU. 30.3 9.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.557 120
83 Kwadzo Ahelegbe NIU. 29.5 10.6 3.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 2.9 0.481 118
96 Johnny Moran NIU. 26.4 5.6 3.3 1.5 1.1 0.0 1.2 0.460 111
110 Kerwin Dunham NIU. 20.1 3.6 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.522 101
111 Marc Sonnen NIU. 11.2 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.542 99
2 Evan Turner OSU. 35.6 20.0 9.2 6.0 1.8 0.9 4.3 0.577 180
46 William Buford OSU. 34.2 14.4 5.7 3.1 1.1 0.3 1.8 0.523 134
61 David Lighty OSU. 36.6 12.8 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.5 2.3 0.574 127
62 Jon Diebler OSU. 37.1 13.3 2.8 1.5 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.647 126
66 Dallas Lauderdale OSU. 25.0 6.6 5.2 0.2 0.7 2.2 0.9 0.683 125
84 Jeremie Simmons OSU. 12.2 4.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.579 117
106 P.J. Hill OSU. 12.2 3.2 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.621 104
129 Kyle Madsen OSU. 13.5 2.5 1.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.584 80
5 Robbie Hummel Pur. 30.3 15.7 6.9 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.592 176
10 JaJuan Johnson Pur. 31.3 15.3 7.2 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.8 0.553 166
14 E'Twaun Moore Pur. 31.4 16.4 3.8 2.7 1.4 0.3 2.1 0.530 158
56 Chris Kramer Pur. 27.7 6.7 3.0 2.3 1.7 0.4 1.4 0.637 128
80 Keaton Grant Pur. 22.7 6.6 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.499 119
116 Ryne Smith Pur. 12.4 2.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.491 93
117 Lewis Jackson Pur. 19.1 2.6 2.6 3.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.364 93
120 Kelsey Barlow Pur. 16.1 3.4 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.438 92
4 Omar Samhan SMC. 32.2 21.5 10.9 1.0 0.5 2.9 2.2 0.590 177
49 Mickey McConnell SMC. 36.1 14.0 2.4 5.2 1.5 0.2 2.2 0.661 132
71 Ben Allen SMC. 27.4 10.5 7.6 2.2 0.6 0.7 1.6 0.594 124
82 Matthew Dellavedova SMC. 36.3 12.3 3.5 4.4 1.2 0.0 2.0 0.569 118
109 Clint Steindl SMC. 23.8 7.0 2.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.580 103
113 Mitchell Young SMC. 13.9 4.1 2.9 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.530 96
126 Jorden Page SMC. 16.0 3.8 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.544 83
22 Wes Johnson Syr. 34.8 16.5 8.5 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.3 0.594 153
40 Rick Jackson Syr. 26.0 9.9 7.0 1.7 1.0 2.0 1.9 0.581 138
43 Arinze Onuaku Syr. 22.8 10.5 5.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.636 137
44 Scoop Jardine Syr. 22.1 8.9 2.0 4.3 1.2 0.1 1.9 0.574 136
47 Andy Rautins Syr. 32.3 12.0 3.3 5.0 2.0 0.2 2.7 0.625 133
51 Kris Joseph Syr. 27.6 11.0 5.5 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.8 0.568 130
68 Brandon Triche Syr. 21.4 8.3 1.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 2.0 0.594 124
18 Wayne Chism Ten. 26.6 12.3 7.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.543 155
31 J.P. Prince Ten. 24.7 9.7 3.8 2.9 1.5 0.5 2.3 0.565 143
32 Tyler Smith Ten. 26.8 11.7 4.7 3.7 1.4 0.3 1.3 0.609 142
52 Cameron Tatum Ten. 17.2 7.3 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.566 130
53 Bobby Maze Ten. 25.2 9.4 2.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 1.4 0.502 129
60 Scotty Hopson Ten. 27.7 12.5 3.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 2.1 0.523 127
69 Brian Williams Ten. 18.0 5.2 6.1 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.496 124
75 Melvin Goins Ten. 15.8 5.3 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.0 1.2 0.475 120
92 Kenny Hall Ten. 13.0 3.8 3.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.583 112
118 Renaldo Woolridge Ten. 13.0 3.4 2.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.485 93
121 Skylar McBee Ten. 13.1 3.4 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.502 90
133 Steven Pearl Ten. 11.0 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.446 67
6 Quincy Pondexter Was. 32.4 19.7 7.5 1.8 1.3 0.6 1.8 0.607 175
42 Isaiah Thomas Was. 31.1 17.1 4.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 2.3 0.536 137
57 Matthew Bryan-Amaning Was. 22.5 9.0 5.9 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.550 127
78 Venoy Overton Was. 23.0 8.5 2.9 3.2 1.3 0.1 2.3 0.553 119
90 Justin Holiday Was. 21.8 5.6 4.4 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.482 114
91 Elston Turner Was. 15.1 5.5 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.526 112
112 Scott Suggs Was. 14.1 4.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.549 97
125 Darnell Gant Was. 11.7 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.446 84
127 Abdul Gaddy Was. 18.3 4.0 1.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 1.7 0.441 82
128 Tyreese Breshers Was. 9.9 3.0 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.458 81
11 Da'Sean Butler WVU. 35.8 17.5 6.3 3.3 0.9 0.4 1.7 0.544 165
19 Kevin Jones WVU. 32.7 13.6 7.2 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.589 155
36 Devin Ebanks WVU. 33.9 12.0 8.3 2.5 1.0 0.7 2.0 0.513 140
70 Darryl Bryant WVU. 24.3 9.3 2.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 2.0 0.497 124
72 Wellington Smith WVU. 23.2 6.5 4.0 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.560 123
95 John Flowers WVU. 14.0 2.9 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.475 111
115 Joe Mazzulla WVU. 14.9 2.2 1.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.436 94
9 Jordan Crawford Xav. 32.4 20.2 4.8 2.9 1.4 0.2 2.4 0.563 167
29 Jason Love Xav. 27.4 11.8 8.5 0.9 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.591 143
50 Jamel McLean Xav. 24.3 8.6 7.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.548 130
67 Terrell Holloway Xav. 31.4 11.7 2.3 3.9 1.2 0.1 1.9 0.557 124
94 Mark Lyons Xav. 22.4 7.9 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 1.7 0.499 112
97 Kenny Frease Xav. 16.6 5.2 4.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.509 111
98 Dante Jackson Xav. 25.4 6.4 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.1 1.8 0.555 109
100 Brad Redford Xav. 13.5 5.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.637 108
123 Andrew Taylor Xav. 9.8 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.538 88
_________________
Dan
My current national college player rankings (and other stuff):
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:06 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | ...adjustments for SoS, team pace, team defense, playing time... |
How did you do this? For statistical plus/minus, I summed the SPM's to the team's adjusted (Pomeroy) efficiency margin... playing time is included in the SPM regression... and pace is adjusted for as well. What is your method? |
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
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Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 9:53 am Post subject: |
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Here is the statistical plus/minus take on the same players:
| Code: | Team Player Pos Ht Yr GP GS SPM Minutes Contrib
Kentucky DeMarcus Cousins F 6-11 Fr 36 35 15.55 58% 8.97
Purdue Robbie Hummel F 6-8 Jr 27 27 13.21 60% 7.91
Michigan St. Draymond Green F 6-6 So 34 3 13.10 63% 8.27
Duke Jon Scheyer G 6-5 Sr 36 36 12.51 91% 11.44
Ohio St. Evan Turner G 6-7 Jr 30 30 12.44 74% 9.16
Kansas St. Jacob Pullen G 6-0 Jr 35 35 11.83 77% 9.14
Tennessee Tyler Smith F 6-7 Sr 12 12 11.77 23% 2.69
Duke Brian Zoubek C 7-1 Sr 36 12 11.51 45% 5.16
West Virginia Da'Sean Butler F 6-7 Sr 35 35 10.31 88% 9.07
Washington Quincy Pondexter F 6-6 Sr 35 35 10.06 81% 8.12
Duke Kyle Singler F 6-8 Jr 36 36 10.01 89% 8.92
Butler Gordon Hayward F 6-9 So 33 33 9.83 80% 7.86
Baylor LaceDarius Dunn G 6-4 Jr 34 34 9.63 81% 7.82
Baylor Ekpe Udoh C 6-10 Jr 34 34 9.46 87% 8.26
Syracuse Wes Johnson F 6-7 Jr 34 34 9.40 87% 8.18
Xavier Jordan Crawford G 6-4 So 34 33 9.20 79% 7.26
Northern Iowa Jordan Eglseder C 7-0 Sr 31 31 8.88 49% 4.37
St. Mary's Omar Samhan C 6-11 Sr 33 33 8.81 80% 7.06
Kansas St. Jamar Samuels F 6-7 So 34 1 8.61 57% 4.88
Syracuse Andy Rautins G 6-4 Sr 34 34 8.44 81% 6.82
Tennessee Wayne Chism F 6-9 Sr 35 34 8.40 66% 5.56
Michigan St. Delvon Roe F 6-8 So 34 27 8.20 51% 4.16
Cornell Jon Jaques F 6-7 Sr 30 22 7.77 38% 2.99
Northern Iowa Lucas O'Rear F 6-6 Jr 34 3 7.75 48% 3.68
Kentucky John Wall G 6-4 Fr 35 35 7.70 83% 6.42
Michigan St. Raymar Morgan F 6-8 Sr 33 30 7.57 66% 4.97
Northern Iowa Adam Koch F 6-8 Sr 34 34 7.46 63% 4.69
Northern Iowa Jake Koch F 6-9 Fr 34 0 7.46 33% 2.49
Tennessee J.P. Prince G 6-7 Sr 35 29 7.45 61% 4.58
Kansas St. Dominique Sutton F 6-5 Jr 35 34 7.19 60% 4.28
Washington Isaiah Thomas G 5-8 So 34 34 7.10 75% 5.34
Kansas St. Curtis Kelly F 6-9 Jr 35 35 7.04 61% 4.29
Butler Shelvin Mack G 6-3 So 34 34 7.02 77% 5.39
Purdue E'Twaun Moore G 6-4 Jr 34 34 6.98 78% 5.45
Baylor Tweety Carter G 5-11 Sr 30 30 6.78 80% 5.40
Kentucky Daniel Orton F 6-11 Fr 36 0 6.74 33% 2.22
Purdue Chris Kramer G 6-3 Sr 34 33 6.64 69% 4.59
Kentucky Patrick PattersonF 6-9 Jr 36 36 6.59 81% 5.35
West Virginia Wellington Smith F 6-7 Sr 35 35 6.57 57% 3.74
Baylor A.J. Walton G 6-1 Fr 34 4 6.31 44% 2.76
Cornell Jeff Foote C 7-0 Sr 33 33 6.22 69% 4.27
Cornell Ryan Wittman F 6-6 Sr 33 33 6.15 84% 5.14
Washington Venoy Overton G 5-11 Jr 35 8 6.08 57% 3.48
Cornell Louis Dale G 5-11 Sr 30 29 6.08 64% 3.87
Butler Matt Howard F 6-8 Jr 34 34 6.06 64% 3.88
West Virginia Kevin Jones F 6-8 So 35 35 6.04 80% 4.85
St. Mary's Ben Allen F 6-11 Sr 33 33 6.02 68% 4.11
Baylor Josh Lomers C 7-0 Sr 34 34 5.91 43% 2.55
Ohio St. David Lighty G 6-5 Jr 36 36 5.90 91% 5.36
Syracuse Rick Jackson F 6-9 Jr 34 34 5.90 65% 3.84
Duke Nolan Smith G 6-2 Jr 34 34 5.82 83% 4.83
West Virginia John Flowers F 6-7 Jr 35 6 5.77 34% 1.99
Duke Mason Plumlee F 6-10 Fr 30 1 5.77 31% 1.78
Cornell Adam Wire F 6-5 Jr 33 2 5.76 29% 1.70
West Virginia Devin Ebanks F 6-9 So 31 28 5.72 74% 4.22
Ohio St. William Buford G 6-5 So 36 36 5.69 85% 4.84
St. Mary's Mickey McConnell G 6-0 Jr 33 33 5.62 90% 5.05
Ohio St. Jon Diebler G 6-6 Jr 36 36 5.60 92% 5.16
Xavier Jamel McLean F 6-8 Jr 34 24 5.42 59% 3.21
Syracuse Kris Joseph F 6-7 So 34 3 5.42 69% 3.74
Kansas St. Denis Clemente G 6-1 Sr 35 35 5.41 85% 4.60
Xavier Terrell Holloway G 6-0 So 34 34 5.32 77% 4.08
Kentucky DeAndre Liggins G 6-6 So 27 0 5.29 29% 1.51
Purdue JaJuan Johnson F 6-10 Jr 34 33 5.26 78% 4.09
Xavier Jason Love F 6-9 Sr 34 34 5.22 67% 3.48
Ohio St. Dallas Lauderdale F 6-8 Jr 35 33 4.82 60% 2.90
St. Mary's Matthew Dellavedova G 6-3 Fr 33 33 4.76 90% 4.30
Butler Ronald Nored G 6-0 So 34 29 4.73 73% 3.47
Xavier Dante Jackson G 6-5 Jr 34 32 4.51 62% 2.79
Michigan St. Kalin Lucas G 6-1 Jr 33 31 4.46 75% 3.36
Tennessee Melvin Goins G 5-11 Jr 29 4 4.44 33% 1.44
Kansas St. Rodney McGruder G 6-4 Fr 31 0 4.42 28% 1.22
Washington Matthew Bryan-Amaning F 6-9 Jr 35 24 4.41 56% 2.48
Washington Justin Holiday F 6-6 Jr 33 20 4.39 51% 2.25
Kentucky Darius Miller F 6-7 So 36 30 4.36 51% 2.24
Tennessee Cameron Tatum G 6-6 So 27 6 4.29 33% 1.42
Ohio St. Jeremie Simmons G 6-2 Sr 32 0 4.14 27% 1.11
Kentucky Darnell Dodson G 6-7 So 33 7 4.10 34% 1.39
Syracuse Arinze Onuaku C 6-9 Sr 32 31 4.10 54% 2.19
Syracuse Scoop Jardine G 6-2 Jr 34 1 4.09 55% 2.26
Northern Iowa Johnny Moran G 6-1 So 32 32 4.07 62% 2.52
Xavier Andrew Taylor F 6-8 Jr 34 0 4.03 24% 0.96
Washington Elston Turner G 6-4 So 35 3 3.89 38% 1.46
Duke Miles Plumlee F 6-10 So 36 24 3.75 41% 1.55
Ohio St. P.J. Hill G 6-1 Sr 27 6 3.64 23% 0.83
West Virginia Darryl Bryant G 6-2 So 35 31 3.64 60% 2.17
Northern Iowa Ali Farokhmanesh G 6-0 Sr 34 34 3.60 76% 2.73
Xavier Mark Lyons G 6-1 Fr 31 5 3.24 50% 1.61
Purdue Keaton Grant G 6-4 Sr 34 24 3.20 57% 1.81
Butler Willie Veasley G 6-3 Sr 33 33 3.18 74% 2.36
Kentucky Eric Bledsoe G 6-1 Fr 35 33 3.10 73% 2.27
Tennessee Bobby Maze G 6-3 Sr 35 34 3.06 63% 1.92
West Virginia Joe Mazzulla G 6-2 Jr 34 0 2.87 36% 1.02
Tennessee Skylar McBee G 6-3 Fr 33 0 2.68 31% 0.82
Michigan St. Chris Allen G 6-3 Jr 33 27 2.61 62% 1.62
Tennessee Brian Williams C 6-10 Jr 25 9 2.60 32% 0.83
Cornell Geoff Reeves G 6-5 Sr 33 5 2.52 45% 1.14
Purdue Ryne Smith G 6-3 So 30 1 2.50 27% 0.68
Duke Andre Dawkins G 6-4 Fr 34 0 2.45 31% 0.76
Baylor Quincy Acy F 6-7 So 34 0 2.39 57% 1.37
Team Player Pos Ht Yr GP GS SPM Minutes Contrib
Cornell Mark Coury C 6-9 Jr 33 1 2.23 27% 0.61
Northern Iowa Marc Sonnen G 6-3 Fr 34 0 1.88 28% 0.53
St. Mary's Clint Steindl F 6-7 So 33 25 1.68 59% 1.00
Cornell Chris Wroblewski G 6-1 So 33 32 1.64 73% 1.20
Washington Scott Suggs G 6-6 So 34 0 1.58 34% 0.54
Northern Iowa Kerwin Dunham G 6-6 Jr 34 2 1.51 50% 0.76
Syracuse Brandon Triche G 6-4 Fr 34 33 1.49 54% 0.80
Michigan St. Durrell Summers G 6-4 Jr 34 21 1.44 64% 0.91
Butler Zach Hahn G 6-1 Jr 34 1 1.13 40% 0.46
Butler Shawn Vanzant G 6-0 Jr 34 4 1.12 37% 0.41
Xavier Kenny Frease C 7-0 So 34 8 1.11 41% 0.45
Kansas St. Luis Colon F 6-10 Sr 26 22 1.08 27% 0.29
Xavier Brad Redford G 6-0 So 30 0 0.99 29% 0.29
Duke Lance Thomas F 6-8 Sr 36 35 0.93 62% 0.58
Tennessee Scotty Hopson G 6-7 So 35 34 0.81 69% 0.56
Washington Darnell Gant F 6-8 So 34 11 0.44 28% 0.13
Northern Iowa Kwadzo Ahelegbe G 6-2 Jr 34 34 0.20 74% 0.15
Tennessee Kenny Hall F 6-8 Fr 33 3 0.18 30% 0.05
Kansas St. Wally Judge F 6-9 Fr 34 6 -0.31 28% -0.09
Purdue Lewis Jackson G 5-9 So 15 6 -0.33 21% -0.07
Kentucky Ramon Harris G 6-7 Sr 34 2 -0.39 26% -0.10
Washington Tyreese Breshers F 6-7 Fr 34 12 -0.40 24% -0.10
Purdue Kelsey Barlow G 6-5 Fr 34 11 -0.57 40% -0.23
Baylor Anthony Jones F 6-10 So 34 34 -0.59 66% -0.39
Michigan St. Korie Lucious G 5-11 So 33 3 -0.64 52% -0.33
St. Mary's Mitchell Young F 6-8 Fr 33 0 -0.81 35% -0.28
Tennessee Renaldo Woolridge F 6-8 So 28 10 -0.89 26% -0.23
Butler Avery Jukes F 6-8 Sr 34 1 -1.03 26% -0.26
Tennessee Steven Pearl F 6-5 Jr 29 0 -1.21 23% -0.28
Kansas St. Martavious Irving G 6-1 Fr 31 0 -1.93 23% -0.44
Ohio St. Kyle Madsen C 6-9 Sr 36 3 -2.23 34% -0.75
St. Mary's Jorden Page G 6-1 Fr 31 1 -2.97 37% -1.11
Washington Abdul Gaddy G 6-3 Fr 35 28 -3.16 46% -1.44
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 242
Location: Arlington, Texas
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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Surprising amount of agreement between my system and the statistical +/-, much more than I would have expected considering how often statistical +/- and linear weights systems differ greatly in the NBA.
I tried doing some statistcial +/- stuff for Arizona this season (I'm an alumn) - but 10 of the 26 game (at the time) play by plays from the NCAA were flawed enoungh not to get anywhere near complete data. I hate incomplete data, so I dropped it.
Do you just not include the messed up PbP's - the ones where they stop reporting substitutions, etc? I notice the messed up PbP's messes up statsheet's +/- stuff too.
_________________
Dan
My current national college player rankings (and other stuff):
http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statmans-ratings-56243/index6.html#post355594 |
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Statman wrote: | Surprising amount of agreement between my system and the statistical +/-, much more than I would have expected considering how often statistical +/- and linear weights systems differ greatly in the NBA.
I tried doing some statistcial +/- stuff for Arizona this season (I'm an alumn) - but 10 of the 26 game (at the time) play by plays from the NCAA were flawed enoungh not to get anywhere near complete data. I hate incomplete data, so I dropped it.
Do you just not include the messed up PbP's - the ones where they stop reporting substitutions, etc? I notice the messed up PbP's messes up statsheet's +/- stuff too. |
This is Statistical Plus/Minus not Adjusted Plus/Minus or Raw Plus/Minus. So it is a linear-weight type system as well. The original SPM was discussed here as a stabilizer for APM: http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm.
What are the linear weights you use? |
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 242
Location: Arlington, Texas
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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| DSMok1 wrote: | | Quote: | | ...adjustments for SoS, team pace, team defense, playing time... |
How did you do this? For statistical plus/minus, I summed the SPM's to the team's adjusted (Pomeroy) efficiency margin... playing time is included in the SPM regression... and pace is adjusted for as well. What is your method? |
I use Sagarin's ratings for team strength (using Sagarins normal "rating"), since I don't have the programming know how or computer capabilities to run my own team regressions. I used to use Pomeroy's - but switched to Sagarin because it seemed to tie closer to team quality (for example, less swayed by slow paced teams blowing out bad teams - making them a bit overrated), PLUS Sagarin's ratings go back to '99 I believe - so I can do the past 11 seasons. It took me a while to kinda tweak Sagarin's ratings to most closely resemble an adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency ratio.
Anyway - since have relative team strengths - I use the ratio of the individual player's summed statistical weights to team totals to come up with a player rating per minute - this in itself then accounts for pace, team defense, etc.
Playing time adjustments are made relative to team strength, low minute/high production players will have their overall rating a bit lower than their per minute toward team average - while high minute/low production guys will have theirs go up. I sum all these final results and adjust accordingly - to make the summed individual ratings perfectly match team ratings. This final adjustment is always small - no more than 3% either way, almost always less than 1.5% - I just do it because I'm a perfectionist.
_________________
Dan
My current national college player rankings (and other stuff):
http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statmans-ratings-56243/index6.html#post355594 |
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Statman wrote: | I use Sagarin's ratings for team strength (using Sagarins normal "rating"), since I don't have the programming know how or computer capabilities to run my own team regressions. I used to use Pomeroy's - but switched to Sagarin because it seemed to tie closer to team quality (for example, less swayed by slow paced teams blowing out bad teams - making them a bit overrated), PLUS Sagarin's ratings go back to '99 I believe - so I can do the past 11 seasons. It took me a while to kinda tweak Sagarin's ratings to most closely resemble an adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency ratio.
Anyway - since have relative team strengths - I use the ratio of the individual player's summed statistical weights to team totals to come up with a player rating per minute - this in itself then accounts for pace, team defense, etc.
Playing time adjustments are made relative to team strength, low minute/high production players will have their overall rating a bit lower than their per minute toward team average - while high minute/low production guys will have theirs go up. I sum all these final results and adjust accordingly - to make the summed individual ratings perfectly match team ratings. This final adjustment is always small - no more than 3% either way, almost always less than 1.5% - I just do it because I'm a perfectionist. |
That's very similar to what I do. I originally did a weighted adjustment (according to mpg) like you do, but finally decided to consider that separately, as a Bayesian Prior for an estimate of true talent. The problem is that the Bayesian Prior has a lower StDev than the player's standard errors, so the Bayesian Prior tends to dominate. Oh well... I just use the raw, non-minute-adjusted SPMs in general. I add a coefficient to the initial player SPMs to sum to the total.
Most of my statistical meanderings are on OUHoops.com; I'm an OU alum. |
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 242
Location: Arlington, Texas
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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| DSMok1 wrote: | | Statman wrote: | Surprising amount of agreement between my system and the statistical +/-, much more than I would have expected considering how often statistical +/- and linear weights systems differ greatly in the NBA.
I tried doing some statistcial +/- stuff for Arizona this season (I'm an alumn) - but 10 of the 26 game (at the time) play by plays from the NCAA were flawed enoungh not to get anywhere near complete data. I hate incomplete data, so I dropped it.
Do you just not include the messed up PbP's - the ones where they stop reporting substitutions, etc? I notice the messed up PbP's messes up statsheet's +/- stuff too. |
This is Statistical Plus/Minus not Adjusted Plus/Minus or Raw Plus/Minus. So it is a linear-weight type system as well. The original SPM was discussed here as a stabilizer for APM: http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm.
What are the linear weights you use? |
Ahhh, that makes more sense - the form of hybrid between adjusted +/- and linear weights.
My weights took ALOT of minor tweaking over the last few years to get to where I'm comfortable with it. Most LW ratings seem to overrate big men (rebounds specifically), and then they always seem to have to do a "position" adjustment. I hate the concept of that - my weights slowly have had rebounding come down little by little - assists up a bit (moreso than NBA for sure), since they aren't as common in the college game.
I use a simple TS% (pts/(FGA*2+FTA)) - and then work backwards to come up with an estimated missed shots (so as to not have to do different negative weights to 2ptsmissed, 3ptsmissed, and FTmissed.) My weights are pts+0.8*Oreb+0.4*Dreb+1.1*ast+1.3*stl+0.9*blk-0.8*Estmisses-1.2*to-0.4*PF
_________________
Dan
My current national college player rankings (and other stuff):
http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statmans-ratings-56243/index6.html#post355594 |
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 242
Location: Arlington, Texas
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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| DSMok1 wrote: |
Most of my statistical meanderings are on OUHoops.com; I'm an OU alum. |
Man, you guys whipped us this year - but still fell apart. I feel sorry for you, what a mess right now with the Tiny thing, letting "talented" players go (Warren, long named guy, etc), etc.
Are you freaking a bit about the future of your hoops there - or do you think it'll still somehow settle and get back on track sooner than later?
_________________
Dan
My current national college player rankings (and other stuff):
http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statmans-ratings-56243/index6.html#post355594 |
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Statman wrote: |
Ahhh, that makes more sense - the form of hybrid between adjusted +/- and linear weights.
My weights took ALOT of minor tweaking over the last few years to get to where I'm comfortable with it. Most LW ratings seem to overrate big men (rebounds specifically), and then they always seem to have to do a "position" adjustment. I hate the concept of that - my weights slowly have had rebounding come down little by little - assists up a bit (moreso than NBA for sure), since they aren't as common in the college game.
I use a simple TS% (pts/(FGA*2+FTA)) - and then work backwards to come up with an estimated missed shots (so as to not have to do different negative weights to 2ptsmissed, 3ptsmissed, and FTmissed.) My weights are pts+0.8*Oreb+0.4*Dreb+1.1*ast+1.3*stl+0.9*blk-0.8*Estmisses-1.2*to-0.4*PF |
I think SPM answers a lot of your qualms about linear weights... have you investigated it closely? It absolutely does not overvalue rebounds; in fact, defensive rebounds are basically not counted at all. The weights were derived by regressing the box-score stats onto NBA Adjusted Plus/Minus.
Issues with SPM being applied to college:
Because of the Attempts^2 term, players from small conferences that shoot a ton get overvalued, because the linear opposition adjustment doesn't balance that.
Also, there tend to be outliers on things like steals that skew things. SPM values steals very highly as a prime indicator of defensive contribution (since the values are adjusted for each team, the type of defensive system doesn't elevate one team's players over another team's players.) Jackson Emery of BYU is the prime outlier this year, with his 3.8 steals/40min and super efficient shooting elevating his SPM to the top 5 in the country.
I've worked on developing a single-game SPM approximation, which gives the points above or below NCAA average each player was for the specific game. Because of quirks in the formula, it is best to run each player's full season SPM with and without the given game and back-calculate the impact. I did that for OU for the OU-AZ game:
| Code: | Player SPM Min Contribution
Crocker, Tony 9.9 33 5.6
Mason-Griffin, Tommy 9.3 34 5.4
Davis, Cade 9.1 33 5.1
Warren, Willie 6.7 33 3.8
Gallon, Tiny 5.4 25 2.3
Hardrick, Kyle 8.3 1 0.1
Willis, Ray -19.1 4 -1.3
Franklin, T.J. -92.5 1 -1.6
Gerber, Beau -90.2 1 -1.5
Wright, Ryan -8.5 14 -2.0
Fitzgerald, Andrew -19.5 6 -2.0
Pledger, Steven -9.9 15 -2.5 |
(SOURCE)
(SPM is points/100 possessions above NCAA average; Contribution is points in this game above NCAA average.)
The method seems to work very well for approximating impact and uncovering who did good work in the game (beyond points scored and rebounds grabbed).
Last edited by DSMok1 on Tue Mar 23, 2010 4:13 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Statman wrote: | | DSMok1 wrote: |
Most of my statistical meanderings are on OUHoops.com; I'm an OU alum. |
Man, you guys whipped us this year - but still fell apart. I feel sorry for you, what a mess right now with the Tiny thing, letting "talented" players go (Warren, long named guy, etc), etc.
Are you freaking a bit about the future of your hoops there - or do you think it'll still somehow settle and get back on track sooner than later? |
I'm a stats guy; I don't freak out. It is comical watching the hysterics, though! Next year will be bad, most likely, since most of the team seems to be graduating or being shown the door. I think they'll get back on track soon enough, though. Probably something like 9th in the Big XII next year, and 4th or 5th the year after before finally recovering.
It's just the issue of recruiting the prima-donas and not being able to handle them... Our coach has always been at the small schools and had hard-working guys; he's never had to deal with the guys who only got by on talent. (Does that sound familiar at all?) |
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Statman
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 242
Location: Arlington, Texas
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| Posted: Thu Apr 01, 2010 5:06 am Post subject: The Final 4 ratings...... |
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Here are the rankings of the Final 4 players, minimum 300 minutes:
Rnk Name Team M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% RAT Chng
1 Jon Scheyer Duke 36.7 18.2 3.6 4.8 1.6 0.2 1.7 0.564 177 4.2
2 Gordon Hayward But. 33.1 15.5 8.2 1.7 1.1 0.8 2.3 0.602 170 5.5
3 Da'Sean Butler WVU. 36.0 17.4 6.3 3.2 1.0 0.4 1.8 0.538 165 -0.4
4 Kevin Jones WVU. 32.9 13.7 7.2 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.590 159 3.6
5 Draymond Green MSU. 25.4 9.8 7.8 3.1 1.2 0.9 1.7 0.560 158 1.5
6 Kyle Singler Duke 35.7 17.6 6.9 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.9 0.535 156 0.9
7 Shelvin Mack But. 31.0 14.2 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 2.1 0.563 156 4.2
8 Brian Zoubek Duke 18.1 5.5 7.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.615 144 2.3
9 Nolan Smith Duke 35.4 17.4 2.8 2.9 1.3 0.3 1.8 0.535 144 4.9
10 Kalin Lucas MSU. 31.1 14.8 1.9 4.0 1.2 0.1 2.4 0.551 142 1.8
11 Matt Howard But. 25.7 11.8 5.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.587 142 1.7
12 Devin Ebanks WVU. 34.1 12.0 8.2 2.5 1.1 0.7 2.2 0.519 141 1.3
13 Raymar Morgan MSU. 27.3 11.5 6.2 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.9 0.571 141 1.6
14 Delvon Roe MSU. 20.6 6.5 5.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.586 131 2.0
15 Wellington Smith WVU. 23.0 6.5 4.1 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.554 126 2.4
16 Darryl Bryant WVU. 24.3 9.3 2.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 2.0 0.497 125 1.6
17 Miles Plumlee Duke 16.6 5.4 5.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.585 125 2.0
18 Durrell Summers MSU. 25.9 11.2 4.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 0.546 123 4.5
19 Willie Veasley But. 31.1 10.1 4.3 0.9 1.1 0.3 1.8 0.595 123 3.0
20 Ronald Nored But. 29.9 6.0 2.9 3.7 1.8 0.1 2.0 0.487 120 3.3
21 Chris Allen MSU. 25.7 8.5 2.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 1.4 0.555 119 1.5
22 Zach Hahn But. 15.8 5.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.623 114 -0.6
23 John Flowers WVU. 14.4 3.0 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.472 114 2.9
24 Mason Plumlee Duke 14.7 3.8 3.3 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.484 114 1.8
25 Andre Dawkins Duke 12.9 4.7 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.556 109 3.1
26 Lance Thomas Duke 24.9 4.8 4.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.5 0.495 108 2.5
27 Korie Lucious MSU. 22.5 5.4 1.7 3.3 0.7 0.1 1.8 0.453 108 4.4
28 Joe Mazzulla WVU. 15.6 2.6 1.8 2.4 0.7 0.0 1.1 0.430 98 3.5
29 Shawn Vanzant But. 14.5 2.8 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.483 96 3.2
30 Avery Jukes But. 10.1 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.505 73 0.8
Chng is the change in the player's rating from last week (going into the Sweet 16). Note there are only 3 players out of 30 that are rated below the "average" D1 player (100 rating). #10 Kalin Lucas is OUT for the tourney - as is #16 Darryl Bryant (most likely).
_________________
Dan
My current national college player rankings (and other stuff):
http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statmans-ratings-56243/index6.html#post355594 |
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