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APBRmetrics
The statistical revolution will not be televised.
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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 Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2009 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | | But +1.3 points per 48 is a lot better than the -4.9 the team averaged overall. In fact, it's 6.2 pp48 better. |
Compared to Telfair's +6 rating, I guess that makes a little more sense. |
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Gary C
Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 69
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| Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2009 7:25 pm Post subject: |
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| I was surprised to see Winston was let go today. Hopefully the interview had nothing to do with it. |
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schtevie
Joined: 18 Apr 2005
Posts: 413
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| Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 1:41 pm Post subject: |
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Belated clean up on Aisle Bob. In his ongoing project to cast doubt on the utility of APM by any means necessary, he both overreaches and falls amusingly short.
First, there is this:
| bchaikin wrote: |
adjusted +/- adherents like to claim that box score stats don't tell the whole story, and that adjusted +/- tells more. but you know what's funny about all this? here you have 3 different people all doing adjusted +/-, yet:
- one claims telfair was "...outstanding..." in 08-09...
- another claims "outstanding" seems like a stretch but that telfair had "...a more positive impact last season..." than in previous seasons...
- and a third saying "...I thought Telfair's strong plus-minus last year was most likely due to luck..."
so which is it? what does adjusted +/- say about sebastien telfair in 08-09? because the stats certainly do seem to indicate that he's played poorly in both 07-08 and 08-09...
and please don't respond with:
...If you choose to make an effort to understand adjusted plus-minus then you'll likely come around, but I suspect you've already made up your mind about it...
because lots of people in this discussion group, me included, are making an effort to try to understand it...
nor respond like this:
"...I will say that questioning along these lines indicates that you still don't understand what we have been saying about the noise associated with adjusted plus-minus. Because of the large standard errors on the coefficient estimates in all the results that are publicly available it is pointless to engage in most player vs. player debates. This is not to say that you can't empirically test the validity of adjusted plus-minus using the publicly available numbers, you can, but not with a sample size of two players..."
because this current debate is not between just adjusted +/- adherents and those who do not calculate it, but is between 3 different proponents of calculated adjusted +/- coming up with 3 different evaluations for the same player... |
Let's try to be honest. On the one hand, there is Wayne Winston, who, if the general conversation has been followed, alleges a proprietary fix on the multicollinearity problem with 1 year APM. (See Mike Tamada's recounting of the NESSIS presentation.) Maybe he is correct; maybe he isn't. He doesn't divulge his reasoning, so his claims must be left aside. On the other hand are the opinions of David Lewin and Stephen Ilardi, and Bob alleges that they have divergent views on the issue of Sebastian Telfair's performance last year.
Regarding this, I don't think that reasonable people can disagree. I cannot speak for Steve, and David has spoken for himself, but their interpretations are two sides of the same coin. There is an anomalous season, and the issue is what explains it. One year APM cannot speak definitively on the topic, by definition. David says that the absence of box score support makes it likely that the correlation is spurious. And Steve merely makes note of the generally accepted fact that young players develop. Hence, it is possible that non-box score contributions on the part of Sebastian Telfair help explain the result in question.
Moving on from bad faith to amusing, we have Bob's displeasure at APM questioning the value of Amare Stoudemire.
| bchaikin wrote: | plus this statement is classic:
Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he's a stat stuffer.
totally overrated? in 04-05, 06-07, 07-08, and 08-09 (he missed the 05-06 season), stoudemire played the most total minutes on a phoenix suns team that averaged a 56-26 record (3rd best record among all teams those 4 years), and lead the team in total rebounds, blocked shots, and scoring, shot an excellent 61.6% ScFG%, and was the most efficient player on offense in the nba those 4 years (the best points scored per zero point team possession personally responsible for among the 340 different players that played at least 2500 total minutes those 4 seasons)...
how is the player that does all that on a team that averages 56 wins a season overrated? if stoudemire is getting all those rebounds, all those blocked shots, and all those points (very efficiently mind you), on an excellent winning team, who else praytell might be responsible for all those wins?... |
Here, opposite to the case of Telfair, we apparently have a player whose box score stats unquestionably redeem his status. Strike two for APM?
Some years have passed since the debate on the relative value of the Suns' star players, but needless (?) to say the data have spoken. Looking at 1 year APM, there is remarkable consistency - and consistency is what matters. In short, Nash is and was the man, not Stoudemire (and for what it's worth, Marion was number two). And given that Bob notes Amare's missing year, there is a funny thing about that. Check the change in the Suns' offensive and defensive ratings that year, then compare it to the abutting estimates of AS' value in terms of APM, both on the offensive and defensive side. Coincidence?
Perhaps there was stat stuffing in his total rebounds and perhaps there was stat stuffing on the part of the scorekeepers with his blocks (see recent Mike G commentary). The bottom line is how things changed on the score board, and the year to year consistency in these results speaks loudly and clearly. |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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| schtevie wrote: | | There is an anomalous season, and the issue is what explains it. One year APM cannot speak definitively on the topic, by definition. |
I'm not sure how the above can be reconciled with:
| schtevie wrote: | | Looking at 1 year APM, there is remarkable consistency - and consistency is what matters. |
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schtevie
Joined: 18 Apr 2005
Posts: 413
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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Gabe,
The quoted statements are reconciled in the sense that if each year is effectively an independent draw (and it may not quite be, but that is another issue) and each year you get the same result (in a statistical sense) then the notion that every one of these draws is an outlier becomes highly implausible.
As for the particular case in point, these are the 1 year APMs of Amare Stoudemire's career (save his rookie and sophomore seasons, as I don't have Dan Rosenbaum's estimates for that, though we do know that he wasn't one of the league leaders. And let's never mind the fact that some of these 1 year APMs are actually two year APMs weighted heavily for the reference year.) Courtesy of David Lewin, 2004-05 was 2.60. 2005-06 was an injury year. Courtesy of Steve Ilardi (and modified to be on a per 100 possession basis), 2006-07 was 1.57. Courtesy of basketballvalue, we have 2007-08 being -2.23 and 2008-09 being -1.22.
Finally, we have Steve's unweighted six year average (which then includes the sophomore season) being 1.48, divided up between 1.88 on offense and -0.40 on defense. And for good measure, Steve's six season stabilized estimate for 2008-09 which has and an APM of -0.25, split between an offensive mark of -2.38 and defense of 2.13. |
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mtamada
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 377
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Gary C wrote: | | I was surprised to see Winston was let go today. Hopefully the interview had nothing to do with it. |
I haven't seen anything about this. Was his consulting contract terminated? |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| schtevie wrote: | | The quoted statements are reconciled in the sense that if each year is effectively an independent draw (and it may not quite be, but that is another issue) and each year you get the same result (in a statistical sense) then the notion that every one of these draws is an outlier becomes highly implausible. |
Thanks for the well-thought-out response. I understand how what I've quoted above speaks to, and reinforces, the consistency aspect. However, if by definition "one year APM cannot speak definitively on the topic", then what does the consistency give us? |
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IrishHand
Joined: 15 Jul 2009
Posts: 115
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| Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 5:50 am Post subject: |
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| mtamada wrote: | | Gary C wrote: | | I was surprised to see Winston was let go today. Hopefully the interview had nothing to do with it. |
I haven't seen anything about this. Was his consulting contract terminated? |
Cuban is internet savvy. He obviously read the TrueHoop blogs.  |
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bastillon
Joined: 04 Nov 2008
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 4:24 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | how is the player that does all that on a team that averages 56 wins a season overrated? if stoudemire is getting all those rebounds, all those blocked shots, and all those points (very efficiently mind you), on an excellent winning team, who else praytell might be responsible for all those wins?... |
I wrote a very long post about Stoudemire then my PC had a meltdown and it's all gone and I'm really pissed so I'll just sumarize.
Amare is actually below-average rebounder who benefited from having poor rebounding team. when Shaq arrived in 2008, his rebounding per36 dropped from 10.17 to 8.89. last year was even worse as he averaged 7.9 rebs per36(12.7 TRB%).
in terms of blocks he was a stat-stuffer who sneaked-up on people and was most of the time late in the rotation. as a Suns fan I saw this time and time again. didn't show up in the boxscore, did show up in team's DRtg.
besides that, he was below average in respect to everything but scoring. poor passer(1.4 APG for career and ~2 ast/passingTO ratio) who turns the ball over very often and can't play defense, either man2man or help D.
so when you have such one-dimensional player as Amare, his scoring won't make him an elite player or even all-star caliber. and he isn't an elite scorer either, before Nash era, he posted 17.5 points per36 with 53.3% TS. since Nash era, it was 24.2(+6.7) and 63.1% TS(+9..
I wrote much more on Nash's impact, Amare and so on but overall Amare is just an average player, because the only thing he gives you that's above average is points and well... he's not an elite scorer. supposing Nash hadn't arrived, Stoudemire could have been ~20 PPG 55% TS scorer but not much above that.
so when you are below average in respect to just about anything but scoring and you're not much above average as a scorer either, then you're most likely overrated, because average fans look mainly(not to say only) at scoring. that's how Amare became overrated and in reality he's an average player(or not much better than that).
1.5 hour of writing to re-write my post  |
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