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Jon Nichols
Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
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 Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 11:39 am Post subject: Rating Shooting Abilities |
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Just wanted to give everyone a heads-up on a new post I just made over at Basketball-Statistics.com. Using the play-by-play data, I've attempted to rate every NBA player's position-adjusted shooting abilities based on shot location. The raw data is only slightly different from the numbers that have been available at 82games.com for quite a while (I mention this in the article), but the addition I make is adjusting them for position and assigning each player a rating. The article is here:
http://basketball-statistics.com/blog1/2009/09/25/a-new-method-for-evaluating-players-part-i-rating-shooting-abilities/
And a direct link to the numbers is here:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AvNKNGJ_AHijdE5RWnZVcG9vS1VaQ1B5VFdBZG5tMHc&hl=en
This is part of a big plan I have to come up with a different style of player rating system (yes, another one). The approach I'm going to take is to develop a system that can be adjusted and adapt on the fly based on whatever you deem is important. I'm usually aware of most rating systems that are out there, but has this been done before somewhere?
Edit: I forgot to credit http://basketballvalue.com for the play-by-play data. Thanks!
Last edited by Jon Nichols on Fri Sep 25, 2009 12:56 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Chronz1
Joined: 22 May 2006
Posts: 201
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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| I got an invalid link for the google apps |
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Jon Nichols
Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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| The link from this page or the link from the article? |
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Chronz1
Joined: 22 May 2006
Posts: 201
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| yea it was from in here, I found the link within the page just fine afterwards |
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Jon Nichols
Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
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| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| I think I may have fixed it, but it was working for me before, so I'm not sure. |
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battaile
Joined: 27 Jul 2009
Posts: 38
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 1:08 am Post subject: |
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| I followed the link in that article to your composite scorers spreadsheet, very cool. I love the stuff that assigns a textual description to a player. |
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erivera7
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 185
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 3:31 am Post subject: |
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Great stuff, Jon.
_________________
@erivera7
I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball |
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DJE09
Joined: 05 May 2009
Posts: 148
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 5:48 am Post subject: |
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Jon,
I think your work is sufficiently different to what 82games is doing to be a good contribution. I know you like to rank people, but you could just give us the raw percentages...I think this is important, unless your 1-100 are percentiles, not a straight ranking (this would be a much better representation IMO, and very easy to do in whatever programme you use to mash).
I am assuming that all rankings are 1-100 based on their position assignment across the league, so PP's rankings are comparable to LeBron's (and all other 3s) but not Kobe's, and you can't compare any of them to Dirk / CP3 ...
In fact, I was wondering why you didn't take 82games approach and assign players positions based upon who was on the court. I expected players who played significant minutes at multiple positions to be listed in both (or as both), this is quite relevant across the board, and especially reserves. For example Pau Gasol was a 4 or 5 - clearly 4 when Bynum on court with him (~900 min here) and clearly the 5 when playing with Odom (~1600 min). Presumably he doesn't have the same role in the offence in both of these situations ... 82games indicates he plays significantly better as a 5, which might explain why we saw so much more of Odom than Bynum in the playoffs.
I think this is an important consideration, if your objective is to evaluate player suitability to a particular role. Of course sepearting this out means that some of your data is highly confounded, eg. Gasol ONLY played as a 4 when Bynum was in the lineup, he may play completely differently alongside a C with different skills (Although I think he plays better as a C). Upon reflection this is unaviodable, and I guess why doing the lineup analysis that Crow suggested would be good - but I am not ready to get into that yet.
Lastly, I know the 2008/09 regular season zip file available from basketballvalue is missing a number of games (you can check their log of games against their .csv files for the games) and includes a few playoff games. I have started getting the other games from the espn PbP, have you (or anyone else) done this already? and are prepared to share your grunt work?  Otherwise, I'll let you know when I have done so.
Thanks for the great posts. |
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Jon Nichols
Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
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| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I think your work is sufficiently different to what 82games is doing to be a good contribution. I know you like to rank people, but you could just give us the raw percentages...I think this is important, unless your 1-100 are percentiles, not a straight ranking (this would be a much better representation IMO, and very easy to do in whatever programme you use to mash). |
The ratings are averages of different percentiles, so they are not just simple rankings. I don't think there are any 100's.
| Quote: | | I am assuming that all rankings are 1-100 based on their position assignment across the league, so PP's rankings are comparable to LeBron's (and all other 3s) but not Kobe's, and you can't compare any of them to Dirk / CP3 ... |
That is correct.
| Quote: | | In fact, I was wondering why you didn't take 82games approach and assign players positions based upon who was on the court. I expected players who played significant minutes at multiple positions to be listed in both (or as both), this is quite relevant across the board, and especially reserves. For example Pau Gasol was a 4 or 5 - clearly 4 when Bynum on court with him (~900 min here) and clearly the 5 when playing with Odom (~1600 min). Presumably he doesn't have the same role in the offence in both of these situations ... 82games indicates he plays significantly better as a 5, which might explain why we saw so much more of Odom than Bynum in the playoffs. |
The play-by-play data I have doesn't include lineup data, so making the distinction over what position each player is playing at given moments in time is tough. I know others have that data, or methods of obtaining it, but I don't have either yet.
| Quote: | | Lastly, I know the 2008/09 regular season zip file available from basketballvalue is missing a number of games (you can check their log of games against their .csv files for the games) and includes a few playoff games. I have started getting the other games from the espn PbP, have you (or anyone else) done this already? and are prepared to share your grunt work? Smile Otherwise, I'll let you know when I have done so. |
Unfortunately no, I haven't yet done the grunt work...If you're willing to share your work with the ESPN PBP, I'd be happy to use it!
-Jon |
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jsill
Joined: 19 Aug 2009
Posts: 73
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| Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2009 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I have started getting the other games from the espn PbP, have you (or anyone else) done this already? |
I have the ESPN play by play downloaded going back to '03-'04. It's what I use for my own site. I don't have it in the same format as Aaron's format at basketballvalue.com. However, I could easily generate simple files of the form
time,homeTeam,roadTeam,score,eventString
e.g.
10:22,Los Angeles Clippers,Oklahoma City Thunder,4-0,Russell Westbrook misses 26-foot 3-pointer.
If that would be useful, let me know. |
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DCAllAmerican
Joined: 07 Nov 2007
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Sun Oct 11, 2009 11:06 am Post subject: |
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Great stuff. I have been looking for something like this for a while since 82games doesn't show stats for all players (for free LOL).
But one thing I would suggest is breaking down the shot locations such as:
Inside (Under the basket)
Close
Mid
3 |
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Jon Nichols
Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
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| Posted: Sun Oct 11, 2009 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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| DCAllAmerican wrote: | Great stuff. I have been looking for something like this for a while since 82games doesn't show stats for all players (for free LOL).
But one thing I would suggest is breaking down the shot locations such as:
Inside (Under the basket)
Close
Mid
3 |
What do you mean by Close, as opposed to Inside? Right now for Close I include dunks and layups, which I assume would qualify as Inside by your standards. Are you saying Close should be stuff like post attempts? |
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