APBRmetrics

[Jon Nichols]

As some of you may already know, I've been doing a lot of work using the play-by-play data at BasketballValue, specifically with shot types. Today I decided to focus on just one team: the Los Angeles Lakers. I took at look at their shots at the per minute and per quarter levels. You can find the link here:

http://basketball-statistics.com/blog1/2009/08/13/exploring-shot-types-at-the-team-level-los-angeles-lakers/

Up next I was thinking about doing something similar for an individual player. In order for the sample sizes to be large enough, it would probably have to be a player with a ton of shot attempts such as Kobe Bryant. Does anyone have suggestions for looks at players that would be informative/interesting?

[Harold Almonte]

Can we say that teams's shot strategies start the game trying to be "fair" and towards the end are obligued to try the "optimum"?

[Crow]

Maybe another part is that players start the game thinking they can the mid-range well then they experience shooting 40% or less as most do and they trim back those attempts out of embarrassment of missing. And the defense has more energy early and the 3 ball is better covered.


As for target players maybe you could do Bryant, James, Pierce and maybe Ginobili or Carmelo. See how they compare.

Or Billups vs Parker.
Or D Howard vs Shaq.
Or Gasol vs Garnett.
Or Andre Miler vs Kidd.
Or just Odom. Or Roy. Or Iggy or Durant, Yao, R Lewis, Arenas when he was healthy, etc.

[Jon Nichols]

I think those are both reasonable hypotheses, although it might be prudent to look at effective field goal percentage as the game elapses before we decide if anything is optimal.

[DJE09]

Jon,
at 82games we see that LAL have 3 of top 30 2pt Jumper shooters (many of their inside shots will be your "mid-range", so my comparison of the data is not necc. accurate). I went to 30, cos Kobe is at 30, and he shoots lots of 2pt jumpers - despite not being as accurate as Ray Allen . So as a team they shoot these mid-rage shots "well". Therefore we might expect an elevated level of this type of shot, and used more as a weapon. So I am saying that LA tends to shoot more mid-range as they are better at it than most teams, and it is not a primary defensive strategy to deny open long 2.

In fact Fisher is 5th best in 2pt Jumper% on last season. Both he and Gasol are over 45%.

To offer an alternative hypothesis, we may see an increased frequency of mid-range shots initially - to create higher percentage shots later: Gasol shoots long 2s so defender has to come to him when he has ball at range, creating passing and driving opportunities later in game. Kobe and Fish also for that reason, and so they can potentially set up 3pt shots later as teams are focussed on denying the 2pt jumper as well - you can only take away so much that top players can do.

As evidence for this I would point out that all 3 play the first 8 minutes (usually) the period where there is a very high number / proportion of mid-range shots, coupled with the fact that this is not part of Odom's game so we see an increase in the number of inside shots when he checks in.

As a corollary to this I would point out that Houston is on record as saying they actively 'give' Kobe the Long 2 to deny his other (higher scoring value) options.

For 2pt Jumper % we can see Boston also has this as a strength, whilst Atl, Den, NYK and Phi are very weak (no player in top 40 - nb min 100 attepmts to qualify). Perhaps Den would be an interesting comparison?

[DJE09]

Also, I just noticed, There seems to be a difference of about 1.5 shots per quarter between the halves. This is probably compounds the impact of 3s.

So the lakers seem to play the second half at a slower pace than the first? or perhaps they turn the ball over more in the second half or more likely they get foulled more ... (sorry Jon I know you are sick of me and my shooting fouls)

[Jon Nichols]

[Jon Nichols]

[Ryan J. Parker]

It would be interesting to see those graphs in terms of % of shots taken.
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[DJE09]

Has anybody studied change in pace in-game?

Ryan, you can eye-ball the charts for the proportions, but without the shooting fouls the proprtions (of total shots) would be skewed.

[Ryan J. Parker]

You must have better eye-balls than me.
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[Jon Nichols]

[Ryan J. Parker]

Very cool. Thanks!!
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I am a basketball geek.

[schtevie]

Very interesting picture. My instant reaction is a question. Assuming that mid-range shots suck on average, are the Lakers taking a lot of unforced sucky shots at the beginning of games or are opposing defenses compelling these somehow by better defending the 3pt line early on?

If you have the time and inclination, could you overlay eFG% or better yet the TS% for each type of shot?

[Jon Nichols]