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Adjusted Plus-Minus: Six-Season Averages
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Ilardi



Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 265
Location: Lawrence, KS

PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:14 pm    Post subject: Adjusted Plus-Minus: Six-Season Averages Reply with quote

Hi All,

After a four-month hiatus to focus on book promotion and other writing commitments, I finally had a little time today to play around with adjusted plus-minus (APM) models.

My first little project: using the six-season full-lineup dataset I've compiled (from data provided by Aaron B. and Roland Beech) to run the offensive and defensive APM numbers based on a six-year average. In other words, each season from 2003-2004 to 2008-2009 was given completely equal weighting (while each year's playoffs were given double weighting to account for the heightened importance/significance of the league's "second season"). This multi-season approach has the advantage of reducing estimation errors, but the relative disadvantage of telling us only how each player has performed, on average, over a rather extended window of time. Still, on balance, I found the results interesting and informative.

Also, please note that I only modeled players who logged at least 400 minutes during the 08-09 season.

If interested, you can check out the results at: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AnGzTFTtSPx_dE9xcTVITjhRSDdfRkJ5MHJ2cU1nb0E&hl=en

Best wishes,
Steve

P.S. When time permits, I'd next like to look at time-trend data: i.e., changes in single-season APM for each player across the six-season window from 03-09.


Last edited by Ilardi on Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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erivera7



Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 182
Location: Chicago, IL

PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is valuable information. Thanks for taking the time to compile the data.
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DLew



Joined: 13 Nov 2006
Posts: 224

PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's worth noting that Garnett and Ginobili at and near to the top of the first list if they played enough minutes. I think it might be more useful to split the list by minutes over the whole sample. Also, I'm not sure why you only modeled players that played more than 400 minutes in 08-09. Because this is a list of best players on average over the six year period I think it would be nice to include all players who played enough minutes over that stretch even if they happen to be retired now. That said, thanks for posting this Steve, I always enjoy your stuff.
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Ilardi



Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 265
Location: Lawrence, KS

PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DLew wrote:
It's worth noting that Garnett and Ginobili at and near to the top of the first list if they played enough minutes. I think it might be more useful to split the list by minutes over the whole sample. Also, I'm not sure why you only modeled players that played more than 400 minutes in 08-09. Because this is a list of best players on average over the six year period I think it would be nice to include all players who played enough minutes over that stretch even if they happen to be retired now. That said, thanks for posting this Steve, I always enjoy your stuff.


Thanks for the comments, Dave.

I agree that a split based on minutes-over-the-full-6-year-window would be more valuable, but I didn't have those aggregate 03-09 minutes handy (and time's still at a premium), so I figured I'd leave that task for another day. Better yet, maybe someone on APBRmetrics will take the time to re-do the split for us!!

As for including all players over the window (even if retired): today's little analysis was mostly a prelude to doing some year-by-year time-trend stuff to help predict player APM performance next year (and, to a lesser degree, to look at APM as a function of player age), so I was mostly just interested in guys who are still in the league. But it would certainly be of interest at some point to include all those retired players, as you suggest.

By the way, I assume you had something to do with the Cavs picking up Parker and Moon - two APM monsters - on the cheap this offseason? Most impressive! (When I was advising a certain team last season, I repeatedly pointed out Moon's off-the-chart APM performance and his likely post-season availability, but I guess I wasn't terribly persuasive.)


Last edited by Ilardi on Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Ilardi



Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 265
Location: Lawrence, KS

PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erivera7 wrote:
This is valuable information. Thanks for taking the time to compile the data.


My pleasure.
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battaile



Joined: 27 Jul 2009
Posts: 38

PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2009 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for posting the spreadsheet, this is great stuff. I'm surprised Dirk rated so well defensively.
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Ilardi



Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 265
Location: Lawrence, KS

PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2009 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

battaile wrote:
Thanks for posting the spreadsheet, this is great stuff. I'm surprised Dirk rated so well defensively.


Yeah, Dirk's somewhat above-average rating on D is a bit of a surprise, although I think he's helped there by his strong defensive rebounding.
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 815

PostPosted: Sun Aug 09, 2009 3:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks.

So to mention a few highs and lows...


among guys over 2000 minutes

Mbah a Moute pulls the best estimate on defensive adjusted. Artest 3rd. 21 of top 24 at least 6'7 with Westbrook, Fisher and B Davis the only exceptions. Durant ranks 3rd weakest, Bargnani 8th, Andre Miller 15th.

Durant also gets 10th weakest on offensive adjusted. Rondo 4th lowest.

On overall adjusted Durant gets 2nd weakest, Bargnani 7th. Jason Thompson pulls 24th best and some other young guys weren't far behind showing it could be done.


Among those below 2000 minutes

Amir Johnson was the 6th best on defensive adjusted. A questionable project maybe, but a questionable giveaway too. Speights surprises me being that low with the 2nd worst defensive adjusted in the group. McGee I knew to expect in this range. Aaron Brooks 4th worst, Bayless 5th worst. Often criticized Bogut was 5th best.

On offensive adjusted Batum surprises with a 2nd best, Hibbert 3rd.

Overall, Gallinari, in very short minutes, 6th best. Brooks 17th worst, amongst this second tier.
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DSMok1



Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps the best way to look at this list is to look at the probability that each player is above average (on defense, offense, or overall). Remember, this is a 6-year average, not weighted. So this list tells us who was the best over the last 6 years.

That said, the probability that one player on the list is better than the next varies widely. The confidence that KG was the best defender (based on these stats) is actually very high (99.99%), and I show a 97% chance that Ben Wallace was second best... but the confidence that Ron Artest was 3rd best are only 42%.

To calculate the confidence that a player was above average, I used
Code:
normsdist(AdjPM/StdErr)
and to calculate the confidence that one was better than the next, I took the confidence that each player was above average and applied
Code:
(P1-P1*P2)/(P1+P2-2*P1*P2)


So here were the top 15 of each category:
Offensive Players:
    Nash, Steve
    Bryant, Kobe
    James, LeBron
    Wade, Dwayne
    Jamison, Antawn
    Garnett, Kevin
    Pierce, Paul
    Gasol, Pau
    Allen, Ray
    McGrady, Tracy
    Ginobili, Manu
    Paul, Chris
    Billups, Chauncey
    Davis, Baron
    Redd, Michael
(There were about 40 players with confidence above 99% that they were above average offensively.)
Defensive Players:
    Garnett, Kevin
    Wallace, Ben
    Artest, Ron
    Collins, Jason
    Hilario, Nene
    Hayes, Chuck
    Martin, Kenyon
    Ming, Yao
    Battier, Shane
    Foster, Jeff
    Duncan, Tim
    Ratliff, Theo
    Varejao, Anderson
    Thomas, Kurt
    Camby, Marcus
Overall
(The confidence that a player was above average, on average, over these six years. Twenty-five players listed.)
    Garnett, Kevin
    James, LeBron
    Ginobili, Manu
    Wade, Dwayne
    Artest, Ron
    Bryant, Kobe
    Pierce, Paul
    Davis, Baron
    Duncan, Tim
    Nash, Steve
    O'Neal, Shaquille
    Ming, Yao
    Kirilenko, Andrei
    Jamison, Antawn
    Gasol, Pau
    Foster, Jeff
    Nowitzki, Dirk
    Paul, Chris
    Miller, Brad
    McGrady, Tracy
    Lewis, Rashard
    Kidd, Jason
    Battier, Shane
    Wallace, Rasheed
    Brand, Elton
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 815

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey DSMOK1. I see you've dived in quick and deep.

It is 6 year data but Foster might be the biggest surprise or least likely to be named by voice vote to the overall list- to many, but not all. Brad Miler is there too. Paid way more but probably somewhat overlooked / under-rated lately.


Care to compile % of above averages by position (or role, though that would be less universally accepted) or salary? Or plot the age distribution curve?
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DSMok1



Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crow wrote:
Hey DSMOK1. I see you've dived in quick and deep.

It is 6 year data but Foster might be the biggest surprise or least likely to be named by voice vote to the overall list- to many, but not all. Brad Miler is there too. Paid way more but probably somewhat overlooked / under-rated lately.


Care to compile % of above averages by position (or role, though that would be less universally accepted) or salary? Or plot the age distribution curve?


Hello, Crow... I've been reading this forum off and on for years, but never posted. Now that the NBA is here in OKC, I'm finally getting around to it. (Besides, my statistical interest is not confined to basketball or even sports.)

I don't have any data besides what Ilardi posted actually on the spreadsheet... I don't think that an age-distribution curve on a set like this would be that informative. Salary could be interesting, but it will simply show the already-known biases I suspect.

I do note that the defensive players are dominated by post players... is that an artifact of the type of regression run (the stats available) to get the STAT part of the calculation? I suspect so. Once more data is put into that regression (it is broadened with more defensive data) I suspect there will be less pull to the post. I may be wrong, however...
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bchaikin



Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 689
Location: cleveland, ohio

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brad Miler is there too. Paid way more but probably somewhat overlooked / under-rated lately.

this by chance the same brad miller that has been the starting C for sacramento the past 3 years (32 min/g and the 3rd most total minutes played on the team), 1 of the 5 worst teams defensively in the league since 06-07? the kings have ranked just 23rd (06-07), 25th (07-08 ), and 30th (dead last, 08-09) in least pts/poss allowed the last 3 seasons, and he was their key man in the middle during this time...

as for underrated lately miller was the starting C on a kings team that went just 9-34 when he played in 08-09, and they were by far the worst defensive team in the league (one of the very worst teams defensively over the last 30 years) in terms of points allowed per team defensive possession just prior to his being traded to the bulls...
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DLew



Joined: 13 Nov 2006
Posts: 224

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DSMok1,

I don't believe Steve used any box score statistics to generate these rankings, so the explanation for post players' superior defensive ratings must lie elsewhere...
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 815

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alright thanks for the clarification of your path to here and now. I get the picture better now.

By salary (or at least future salary commitment) Bargnani is the only guy who will be making $10 million per season after tuning in worse than a -4 on 6 year unweighted adjusted. The closest comparison is Troy Murphy at -2.6 and a bit over $10 million. He may not be the last though. Depends if adjusted changes for Durant in year 3 or 4.

An age distribution would allow consideration of the career adjusted curve vs just peak individual stat performance. I assume the adjusted curve lags the stat performance curve early and might be elevated compared to just stats later and possibly strong longer. But I haven't seen it yet.
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DSMok1



Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains

PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DLew wrote:
DSMok1,

I don't believe Steve used any box score statistics to generate these rankings, so the explanation for post players' superior defensive ratings must lie elsewhere...


See: http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2295

I think he is.
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