APBRmetrics

[Ilardi]

Hi All,

After a four-month hiatus to focus on book promotion and other writing commitments, I finally had a little time today to play around with adjusted plus-minus (APM) models.

My first little project: using the six-season full-lineup dataset I've compiled (from data provided by Aaron B. and Roland Beech) to run the offensive and defensive APM numbers based on a six-year average. In other words, each season from 2003-2004 to 2008-2009 was given completely equal weighting (while each year's playoffs were given double weighting to account for the heightened importance/significance of the league's "second season"). This multi-season approach has the advantage of reducing estimation errors, but the relative disadvantage of telling us only how each player has performed, on average, over a rather extended window of time. Still, on balance, I found the results interesting and informative.

Also, please note that I only modeled players who logged at least 400 minutes during the 08-09 season.

If interested, you can check out the results at: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AnGzTFTtSPx_dE9xcTVITjhRSDdfRkJ5MHJ2cU1nb0E&hl=en

Best wishes,
Steve

P.S. When time permits, I'd next like to look at time-trend data: i.e., changes in single-season APM for each player across the six-season window from 03-09.

[erivera7]

This is valuable information. Thanks for taking the time to compile the data.
_________________
@erivera7
I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball

[DLew]

It's worth noting that Garnett and Ginobili at and near to the top of the first list if they played enough minutes. I think it might be more useful to split the list by minutes over the whole sample. Also, I'm not sure why you only modeled players that played more than 400 minutes in 08-09. Because this is a list of best players on average over the six year period I think it would be nice to include all players who played enough minutes over that stretch even if they happen to be retired now. That said, thanks for posting this Steve, I always enjoy your stuff.

[Ilardi]

[Ilardi]

[battaile]

Thanks for posting the spreadsheet, this is great stuff. I'm surprised Dirk rated so well defensively.

[Ilardi]

[Crow]

Thanks.

So to mention a few highs and lows...


among guys over 2000 minutes

Mbah a Moute pulls the best estimate on defensive adjusted. Artest 3rd. 21 of top 24 at least 6'7 with Westbrook, Fisher and B Davis the only exceptions. Durant ranks 3rd weakest, Bargnani 8th, Andre Miller 15th.

Durant also gets 10th weakest on offensive adjusted. Rondo 4th lowest.

On overall adjusted Durant gets 2nd weakest, Bargnani 7th. Jason Thompson pulls 24th best and some other young guys weren't far behind showing it could be done.


Among those below 2000 minutes

Amir Johnson was the 6th best on defensive adjusted. A questionable project maybe, but a questionable giveaway too. Speights surprises me being that low with the 2nd worst defensive adjusted in the group. McGee I knew to expect in this range. Aaron Brooks 4th worst, Bayless 5th worst. Often criticized Bogut was 5th best.

On offensive adjusted Batum surprises with a 2nd best, Hibbert 3rd.

Overall, Gallinari, in very short minutes, 6th best. Brooks 17th worst, amongst this second tier.

[DSMok1]

Perhaps the best way to look at this list is to look at the probability that each player is above average (on defense, offense, or overall). Remember, this is a 6-year average, not weighted. So this list tells us who was the best over the last 6 years.

That said, the probability that one player on the list is better than the next varies widely. The confidence that KG was the best defender (based on these stats) is actually very high (99.99%), and I show a 97% chance that Ben Wallace was second best... but the confidence that Ron Artest was 3rd best are only 42%.

To calculate the confidence that a player was above average, I used

[Crow]

Hey DSMOK1. I see you've dived in quick and deep.

It is 6 year data but Foster might be the biggest surprise or least likely to be named by voice vote to the overall list- to many, but not all. Brad Miler is there too. Paid way more but probably somewhat overlooked / under-rated lately.


Care to compile % of above averages by position (or role, though that would be less universally accepted) or salary? Or plot the age distribution curve?

[DSMok1]

[bchaikin]

Brad Miler is there too. Paid way more but probably somewhat overlooked / under-rated lately.

this by chance the same brad miller that has been the starting C for sacramento the past 3 years (32 min/g and the 3rd most total minutes played on the team), 1 of the 5 worst teams defensively in the league since 06-07? the kings have ranked just 23rd (06-07), 25th (07-08 ), and 30th (dead last, 08-09) in least pts/poss allowed the last 3 seasons, and he was their key man in the middle during this time...

as for underrated lately miller was the starting C on a kings team that went just 9-34 when he played in 08-09, and they were by far the worst defensive team in the league (one of the very worst teams defensively over the last 30 years) in terms of points allowed per team defensive possession just prior to his being traded to the bulls...

[DLew]

DSMok1,

I don't believe Steve used any box score statistics to generate these rankings, so the explanation for post players' superior defensive ratings must lie elsewhere...

[Crow]

Alright thanks for the clarification of your path to here and now. I get the picture better now.

By salary (or at least future salary commitment) Bargnani is the only guy who will be making $10 million per season after tuning in worse than a -4 on 6 year unweighted adjusted. The closest comparison is Troy Murphy at -2.6 and a bit over $10 million. He may not be the last though. Depends if adjusted changes for Durant in year 3 or 4.

An age distribution would allow consideration of the career adjusted curve vs just peak individual stat performance. I assume the adjusted curve lags the stat performance curve early and might be elevated compared to just stats later and possibly strong longer. But I haven't seen it yet.

[DSMok1]