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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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 Posted: Sun May 10, 2009 7:06 am Post subject: LeBron's historic postseason |
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In the LeBron Year, it turns out that the regular season was just warming up to these playoffs. No one, it seems, has put together 7 games like these first 7.
LeBron is now one of 80 who have gotten >3 Win Shares (as per http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=ZWq8z ) in a single postseason. Only one has done it in as few as twice as many minutes.
If 484 average player-minutes produce 1 win, then an average rate is 1 WS per 484 minutes. The lowest WS/484 of the 80 are Ray Allen last year and Charles Oakley in '94, at 1.46. Here is the top of the list, along with some raw per-36 rates.
| Code: | WS484 WS per 36 min. Year Tm G Min Pts Reb Ast StBk PER
5.5 3.1 LeBron James 2009 CLE 7 271 31.4 9.3 6.1 2.7 44.8
3.3 3.7 Julius Erving 1976 NYA 13 551 29.5 10.7 4.2 3.3 32.0
3.2 3.1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1977 LAL 11 467 29.4 15.0 3.5 4.4 32.4
3.2 4.5 Michael Jordan 1991 CHI 17 689 27.6 5.6 7.4 3.3 32.0
3.1 4.7 Michael Jordan 1996 CHI 18 733 27.1 4.4 3.6 1.9 26.7
2.9 4.6 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1974 MIL 16 758 24.5 12.0 3.7 2.8 28.3
2.8 6.0 Tim Duncan 2003 SAS 24 1021 20.9 13.0 4.5 3.3 28.4
2.8 3.9 Michael Jordan 1990 CHI 16 674 31.4 6.1 5.8 3.2 31.6
2.8 3.8 Magic Johnson 1987 LAL 18 666 21.2 7.5 11.8 2.1 26.2
2.7 3.8 Shaquille O'Neal 2001 LAL 16 676 25.9 13.2 2.7 2.4 28.7
2.7 3.9 Kobe Bryant 2001 LAL 16 694 24.4 6.0 5.0 1.9 25.0
2.7 3.0 Magic Johnson 1986 LAL 14 541 20.1 6.7 14.0 1.9 25.6
2.7 3.4 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1980 LAL 15 618 27.9 10.5 2.7 4.4 27.9
2.7 5.4 Dirk Nowitzki 2006 DAL 23 982 22.7 9.8 2.5 1.4 26.8
2.7 4.3 Michael Jordan 1993 CHI 19 783 30.6 5.9 5.2 2.6 30.1
2.6 4.2 Larry Bird 1986 BOS 18 770 21.8 7.9 6.9 2.2 23.9
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Duncan's 2003 is the alltime high WS by a wide margin. Going back to 1974, that is. He had the 'benefit' of needing 6 games per series; but LeBron could catch him without losing a game.
In the b-r.com Game Log page, the last column is Hollinger's 'Game Score', in which "10 is an average performance". LeBron's season average was 25.1; in the playoffs:
35.9, 26.5, 26.5, 32.2
31.7, 27.1, 43.8
In Duncan's '03, he had 1 game >40, 5 >30, 16 >20, 2 <15.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Sun May 10, 2009 11:09 am Post subject: |
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In the above list, note that LeBron has exactly half of Magic's 1986 minutes and equal WS; if he went another 7 games with zero WS, they'd be equivalent.
Best PER in playoff minutes:
| Code: | player playoffs Min. PER
Rip Hamilton 2005 1079 13.7
Pat Ewing 1994 1032 20.3
Charles Barkley 1993 1026 24.9
Tim Duncan 2003 1021 28.4
Shaquille O'Neal 2000 1000 30.5
Michael Jordan 1991 689 32.0
Julius Erving 1976 551 32.0
Kar Abdul-Jabbar 1977 467 32.4
George Mikan 1954 424 33.6
Hakeem Olajuwon 1988 162 39.0
Franklin Edwards 1982 32 41.1
etc.
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http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=RYI4R
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antcole
Joined: 12 Dec 2005
Posts: 74
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| Posted: Sun May 10, 2009 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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I've been paying attention to Jordan's....um I mean Lebron's historic playoff performance and it is just amazing. Right now he has a PER of 44.8! That number is off of the charts. His is averaging 33.7 points per game, with a true shooting percentage of 66.2 percent, and most impressively he has done this while only averaging turning the ball over on 4 percent of his possessions (1.4 turnovers per game). Add into his defensive performance and you have a performance of the ages. If they continue like this he might carry his team to only one loss while winning the crown. If he wins the title and keeps up this scoring average he would surpass The Dream for 3rd highest for any player on the winning championship team in a single playoff season and he would be doing this in far less games, with a True Shooting percentage ten percent higher and an even more microscopic turnover ratio. He would surpass any Jordan, O'Neal, Duncan, Olajuwon, and Magic postseason run if he keeps this up. You would not only make a case that he is arguably having the greatest overall season of all-time. He would blowout the field. We truly might be watching the greatest basketball player who has ever lived.
edit: I just looked at his performance again last night, 47 points, 8 assists, while having only 1 turnover. Not even the NBA 2K basketball games can you have a stat line like that. |
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jmethven
Joined: 16 May 2005
Posts: 51
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| Posted: Sun May 10, 2009 1:20 pm Post subject: |
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| How common is it for a player to have a 7-game stretch of this magnitude, postseason or regular season? Is this a signal that he has reached a new level of play, where his PER will be above 35 in coming years, and he will be hailed as undeniably greater than Jordan? Or is it a small sample size-driven 'fluke' and his true talent level is still closer to the 31.7 PER he posted during the regular season? |
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DJE09
Joined: 05 May 2009
Posts: 148
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| Posted: Mon May 11, 2009 5:23 am Post subject: |
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| jmethven wrote: | | How common is it for a player to have a 7-game stretch of this magnitude, postseason or regular season? Is this a signal that he has reached a new level of play, where his PER will be above 35 in coming years, and he will be hailed as undeniably greater than Jordan? Or is it a small sample size-driven 'fluke' and his true talent level is still closer to the 31.7 PER he posted during the regular season? |
I am going to go out on a limb and say LeBron's True PER is closer to 31.7 than 44 ... ;D The First two rounds of the playoffs are certainly an exercise in small sample size (Especially since he has played to teams that seem unable to do anything to stop him - I used to think Prince was a good defender but his numbers this year just don't stack up).
The scariest thing is how ugly some of LeBron's shot selection has been, esp. in game 3, I know he can make his fadeaway jumper, but it just looks so off balance... I am not sure if trying to rush him / pressure him on the dribble in the back court will work, but it seems to me you want to be trying to take the ball out of his hands as much as possible, make him win by getting 20 assists and 20 FTs ...
That's my question. What strategy do you think will be most effective in slowing him down / stoppping him?
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Mon May 11, 2009 6:23 am Post subject: |
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Of course LeBron isn't going to go thru several years of being twice as good as Magic Johnson (in his prime). But I'll put money on no player having 7 consecutive playoff games at this level.
In the 1988 playoffs, Olajuwon's Rockets were out in 4, but he had 1.3 WS in 162 minutes. That's 3.9 WS/484, and the standard to date, tho in a short postseason. PER was 39.0, fully 10.5 higher than any of his others.
Wilt's highest playoff PER was 31.2, in 12 G, 1964.
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DJE09
Joined: 05 May 2009
Posts: 148
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| Posted: Mon May 11, 2009 9:28 am Post subject: |
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Of course we have to give LeBron an incomplete on this, since he hasn't finished the playoffs, not that I am suggesting that his performance is going to drop.
Since I have no idea how to calculate VOP and what the league average is for a given season, I have no idea how I go about calculating PER for any given 7 games over the last 20 years, but would like to put forward MJ's 7 game stretch at the end of the 1990/91 playoffs for consideration (since we are allowed to cherry pick ANY 7 game stretch we like)
From Basketball reference the Respective 7 game averages are (Lebron is for Games 1-7 of the 2009 Playoffs, MJ is for Games 10-16 of the 1991 Playoffs)
| Code: |
MP FGA FG% 3PA 3P% FTA FT% ORB DRB AST BLK TOV PF PTS GmSc
LeBron 38.71 19.43 55.49% 5.43 29.76% 13.71 75.24% 1.29 8.71 6.57 0.71 1.43 1.14 33.71 31.96
MJ 42.00 20.86 58.36% 1.14 58.33% 8.57 86.30% 1.43 5.29 9.86 1.71 2.57 3.57 31.86 30.37
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I suspect since MJ has played more minutes and Game Score bears some relation to PER (just not per minute) that LeBron is going to come out on top, although the adjustment for league average still has to be considered ... but looking at the raw numbers it is not immediately clear that LeBron's performance is better (we can clearly see the modern practise of taking 3s - although this makes LeBron's TS% worse...) over the 7 game stretch.
Further, given MJ lost one of those 7 games, the average margin of victory was 'only' 11 (cf 17.5 for CLE) and over the final 2 rounds of the playoffs you might make a case for his performace being more signifcant for the team.
If I was to go data mining for a similarly purple individual 7 game stretch I might consider Sections of MJ's 86/87 season, there are a few 7 game stretches with a games score of 35 on 38 mpg ... |
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jmethven
Joined: 16 May 2005
Posts: 51
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| Posted: Mon May 11, 2009 11:14 am Post subject: |
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Yeah I think LeBron's performance is still better statistically but MJ's is equal or better in context given that it was the last 2 rounds of the playoffs.
Still, I will be fascinated to see where LeBron's playoff PER winds up, assuming that he has 2 full rounds yet to go. Obviously, I don't think he's going to wind up with a PER of 44 at the end of the postseason but even something significantly lower (like a PER of 35) would be a singular accomplishment. That said, one bad game would make his playoff PER plummet, I'm guessing.
| DJE09 wrote: | Of course we have to give LeBron an incomplete on this, since he hasn't finished the playoffs, not that I am suggesting that his performance is going to drop.
Since I have no idea how to calculate VOP and what the league average is for a given season, I have no idea how I go about calculating PER for any given 7 games over the last 20 years, but would like to put forward MJ's 7 game stretch at the end of the 1990/91 playoffs for consideration (since we are allowed to cherry pick ANY 7 game stretch we like)
From Basketball reference the Respective 7 game averages are (Lebron is for Games 1-7 of the 2009 Playoffs, MJ is for Games 10-16 of the 1991 Playoffs)
| Code: |
MP FGA FG% 3PA 3P% FTA FT% ORB DRB AST BLK TOV PF PTS GmSc
LeBron 38.71 19.43 55.49% 5.43 29.76% 13.71 75.24% 1.29 8.71 6.57 0.71 1.43 1.14 33.71 31.96
MJ 42.00 20.86 58.36% 1.14 58.33% 8.57 86.30% 1.43 5.29 9.86 1.71 2.57 3.57 31.86 30.37
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I suspect since MJ has played more minutes and Game Score bears some relation to PER (just not per minute) that LeBron is going to come out on top, although the adjustment for league average still has to be considered ... but looking at the raw numbers it is not immediately clear that LeBron's performance is better (we can clearly see the modern practise of taking 3s - although this makes LeBron's TS% worse...) over the 7 game stretch.
Further, given MJ lost one of those 7 games, the average margin of victory was 'only' 11 (cf 17.5 for CLE) and over the final 2 rounds of the playoffs you might make a case for his performace being more signifcant for the team.
If I was to go data mining for a similarly purple individual 7 game stretch I might consider Sections of MJ's 86/87 season, there are a few 7 game stretches with a games score of 35 on 38 mpg ... |
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antcole
Joined: 12 Dec 2005
Posts: 74
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| Posted: Mon May 11, 2009 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | Of course LeBron isn't going to go thru several years of being twice as good as Magic Johnson (in his prime). But I'll put money on no player having 7 consecutive playoff games at this level.
In the 1988 playoffs, Olajuwon's Rockets were out in 4, but he had 1.3 WS in 162 minutes. That's 3.9 WS/484, and the standard to date, tho in a short postseason. PER was 39.0, fully 10.5 higher than any of his others.
Wilt's highest playoff PER was 31.2, in 12 G, 1964. |
And it shows how overmatched the Rockets truly were seeing that Olajuwon could put forth such a mega performance and they still lose in four. And no Lebron will not go through a string in which he is putting up PERs in the 40s (PERs in the 33 range, possibly) and part of me thinks that his first seven games is probably unsustainable. However, lets say he declines, he might still have a postseason PER of around 37-38 while leading the CAVS to the NBA title. It would still be hands down the greatest postseason performance in history, and would probably be ranked in my book as the greatest individual season of all-time.
Note: I put a big premium on playoff, that is why David Robinson's 1994 campaign ranks lower in my book than Seasons like Magic Johnson's 1987, Tim Duncan's 2003 or Olajuwon's 1994 campaign on a historical level. Seasons like Jordan's 1991 and Shaq's 2000 was as near perfect a season any player could have so it goes without saying that it ranks probably 1 and 2 among the best of the MODERN era. |
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bastillon
Joined: 04 Nov 2008
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Mon May 11, 2009 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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no disrespect to LeBron, because he's truly outstanding player who is the NBA MVP, but the numbers he's puttin' up in these playoffs are clearly overrated. of course his PER will be sky-high but is that a problem against self-destructed Pistons and the Atlanta Hospital ? I bet you 10 thousands he's gonna meet reality later in the playoffs.
too bad Yao is out for playoffs, because if Rockets could go on to NBA Finals, it would be very interesting how LeBron plays against real defense with a pair of pittbulls like Artest and Battier.
whoever advances to the ECF, they won't be able to stop Cavs but it might be a curse being able to play the real game that late. he might not get used to it so fast.
so I may be wrong but I don't see LeBron keeping his numbers near this sick average. no way.
BTW. can you name opponents of the other great playoff performers in particular seasons ? |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Tue May 12, 2009 5:14 am Post subject: |
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Hakeem put up his 37-13-3 avg against the Mavs (Tarpley, Donaldson, Perkins up front) in '88.
Kareem (35-18-4-4) in '77 went thru GS (Ray, Parish, GJohnson), then stopped by the Walton gang.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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After one so-so game, LeBron's PER for the playoffs is now 41.6; WS/484 = 5.1 .
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tHe_pEsTiLeNcE
Joined: 09 Aug 2006
Posts: 106
Location: where you aren't
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| Posted: Thu May 21, 2009 5:55 pm Post subject: |
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After 9 games:
PER: 43.4
Win Shares/484: 5.2
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tHe_pEsTiLeNcE
Joined: 09 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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Well, Lebron is still playing at an inhuman level, but he has been slightly less efficient lately. His Winshares per 484 are "just" 4.2, and his PER is "just" 39.0. His O-Rating is still 130, despite the inefficiency the last few games. Sure, he's still having probably the best statistical postseason in the history of the league, but at least the numbers look at least somewhat feasible. Unfortunately for him, he probably only has about a 25% chance of going to the finals. If he does get to the finals, he'll set all sorts of "totals" records, but, if he doesn't, he'll have to be content with setting "averages" records. He's, currently, easily having the best scoring performance in the history of the playoffs; not only scoring the most points/36 of any player in playoff history (minimum 500 minutes) but also doing it more efficiently than anybody else in the top 10. And he's doing this while getting 8 rebounds and 6.5 assists per 36 minutes. If he can come back and win the championship (a long shot, I know), one could argue that this could be considered the best overall season for an individual in NBA history. Think about it:
Regular season:
MVP, 19.6 winshares (4th most in NBA history), 31.7 PER (tied with Jordan for the best since blocks and steals began being recorded), 66-16 record, despite having probably the weakest supporting cast ever to win 60 games, let alone 66. Any number of impressive individual accomplishments could be added here as well.
Playoffs:
Highest PER of all time by a landslide, highest Winshares per 484 by a landslide, 36-9-7 topline averages, highest per-minute scoring average (minimum 500 minutes) in playoff history (while having a hyper-efficient 130 o-rtg), etc. On top of it all, the two first series double-digit sweeps, the soon-to-be-iconic game-winner, the only 47-12-8 game in playoff history, the only 49-8-6 game in playoff history, the only 37-14-12 game in playoff history, two of the three 44-12-7 games in playoff history, the 32 points in a row scored or assisted in game 5, etc. Presumably, he would be the only player in playoff history to average the tandem of as many points, rebounds, and assists as he will. On a more qualitative level, if he were to come back and win a ring, he would have one of the greatest comebacks in NBA history under his belt, and, by that point, would have racked up various other playoff records.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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So what?
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