| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Jakedfw
Joined: 27 May 2006
Posts: 31
|
 Posted: Tue May 05, 2009 1:03 pm Post subject: Is Danny Crawford biased against the Mavs? |
 |
|
The Dallasbasketball.com site reveals some very interesting stats about Danny Crawford, and the games he has reffed where the Mavericks were participants. You can read the article here: http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=1615. The essence of the piece is that it is nearly impossible that Crawford isn't biased against the Mavs.
I was wondering if they were just making stuff up or if the statistics are just so out-of-whack to indicate that Crawford (consciously or unconsciously) is ruling against the Mavericks. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
biggles
Joined: 15 Apr 2009
Posts: 2
|
| Posted: Tue May 05, 2009 7:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Hey kids!
1. Testing a hypothesis on much the same data that led you to propose that hypothesis is not cool!
2. If you do use much the same data, treat it as a multiple testing problem!
3. If you choose to look only at a single team's results for a single ref, assuming a team's win probability is the same in every game is probably not accurate!
4. If you do assume a binomial distribution, have the decency to calculate the p-value correctly (especially when the online calculator you used tells you what it is)!
5. If you go ahead and write down an incorrect p-value, don't trust a medical research guy who says "To be considered non-random, most medical treatments need to show that there is less than a five-percent chance that the results of the studies were random" to interpret it!
6. If you think that medical research guy does know his stuff and just phrased that sentence badly, make sure he stops you from saying dumb stuff like "the probability that Danny Crawford “influenced’’ the results of these games is 99.999 percent"!
Referee effects surely exist, and for all I know Dan Crawford is genuinely a bad matchup for the Mavs, but this isn't exactly solid evidence. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
BobboFitos
Joined: 21 Feb 2009
Posts: 201
Location: Cambridge, MA
|
| Posted: Tue May 05, 2009 9:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
What are the odds, through pure random chance, that there would be at least 1 ref-team pairing with such a record? This is just post-hoc cherry-picking. But... If anyone wants to offer me a super-favorable Mavs line next time he refs, go ahead!
_________________
http://pointsperpossession.com/
@PPPBasketball |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
