APBRmetrics

knicksfan · Joined: 26 Sep 2007 Posts: 4

Hello Everyone,

I really enjoy this board and its pursuit of statistical diversion from the basketball norms. I have three questions regarding the above topics.

Regarding the Pace factor and expected wins, I know the formulas, but I'm not sure of the results. Here are a couple of examples using data from a couple of leagues that I'm in.

1) Detroit Pistons (71-72) 27-47

Pace Factor = (Team Poss + Opp Poss X 48) / Team Minutes X 2

Pace Factor = ((8552+8537) X 48) /17794 X 2

Pace Factor = 820272 / 35588

Pace Factor = 23.4

**23.4 points IS NOT my team's pace for that particular season. What am I doing wrong?

2) Expected Wins = 82 X (pts^16.5) / (pts^16.5 + pts All^16.5)

TABA 06-07:

Altoona = 82 X (10228^16.5) / (10228^16.5 + 7858^16.5)
Altoona = 82 X (1.45^16.5) / (1.45 X 10^66 + 1.87 X 10^64)
Altoona = 82 X (145 / 145 + 18.7)
Altoona = 82 X (145/163.7)
Altoona = 82 X .885
Altoona = 72.57
Altoona = 73 Wins

Please let me know if this is correct, or, where did I go wrong?

3) PER-- Does anyone have an entry formula for Hollinger's PER in Excel format? I thought that I'd ask before I struggle through the task of constructing one.

Thanks,

Miguel
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LOOK OUT BELOW!!! WITH NO REGARD FOR HUMAN LIFE!!

Kevin Harlan-TNT

davis21wylie2121 · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 529 Location: Atlanta, GA

1. "Team Minutes" needs to be divided by 5 to account for the 5 players on the court at any given time.

2. Expected winning % is just found by: (points scored^16.5)/((points scored^16.5)+(points allowed^16.5)). So if I'm calculating it for the 2008 Celtics, who scored 8245 pts and allowed 7404, I would plug in: (8245^16.5)/((8245^16.5)+(7404^16.5)) = .855. Multiply .855 by 82, and you get 70 expected wins. 14 is a better exponent than 16.5, though.

3. I just posted a PER excel worksheet to the APBRmetrics files Yahoo group. It's from 2006 (the last year I actually bothered to calculate PER), but you can apply it to any season you want.

knicksfan · Joined: 26 Sep 2007 Posts: 4

Thanks for the response and helpful information, Davis.

I've already downloaded the Excel file, as I perused through some old threads and found out about it's location. Thanks so much though.

When I divide team minutes by five, where do I do so? Or does that even matter?

I appreciate the example for expected wins.

Miguel
_________________
LOOK OUT BELOW!!! WITH NO REGARD FOR HUMAN LIFE!!

Kevin Harlan-TNT

94by50 · Joined: 01 Jan 2006 Posts: 458 Location: Phoenix

dudeimstoked · Joined: 15 Oct 2007 Posts: 8

knicksfan · Joined: 26 Sep 2007 Posts: 4

Hey dudeimstoked,

In following with John Hollinger's most recent book, "Pro Basketball Forecast, 2005-06," he adjusted his Expected Wins formula by raising the power from 14 to 16.5.

I was simply doing it from that perspective. It's become painfully obvious, though, that 16.5 is simply too big a number to work with. Too much reduction involved. Fourteen is basically a more even value that returns closer to round results. It also seems to be a more universally accepted standard.

Another proof of this is when you put the formulas in Excel.

BTW, thanks for the explanation wylie of the division by 5 in Pace. Now that I've conquered that hurdle, now it's on to League VOP.

Thanks guys, for the input. feel free to share more.

Miguel
_________________
LOOK OUT BELOW!!! WITH NO REGARD FOR HUMAN LIFE!!

Kevin Harlan-TNT

davis21wylie2121 · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 529 Location: Atlanta, GA