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hoopseng
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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Location: Basketball Research
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 Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Mountain wrote: |
If you wanted to carry the work even further I guess it might be possible to adjust for strength of schedule and home & away.
I know there are strength of schedule and home & away adjusted power rankings but has anyone presented strength of schedule and home & away adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies? Are you interested in blazing that trail? That would help put the different 5 game experiences of the teams on a similar basis and help try to isolate "improvement" over the impact of the schedule. It would of course still be worth seeing the raw data but having both available would lead to sounder impressions about improvement and less false signals arising from the variable degee of difficulty of schedule.
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Good point as always. Help me isolate the strength of schedule from the last 5 numbers. If we can put up a methodology here, the results will be reflected to my site. I can provide the raw data you want.
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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I don't follow college basketball except in the draft context. This probably explains why I failed to note initially that Ken Pom produces adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies at the college level. I assume his method is described in more detail on his blog or maybe someone else can give a link or explanation but there is a brief explanation here
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/ratings_explanation/
I think the strength of schedule adjustment is pretty straightforward. I pulled together some links on it recently but I forget where. This was one of them- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system
It is the underlying approach of part of the Sagarin ranking method.
Maybe I can find more later.
Last edited by Mountain on Fri Jan 25, 2008 7:26 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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hoopseng
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| Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for the sources. I will work on it ASAP.
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Mountain
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| Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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Here is another one using football but it lays out a basic strength of schedule process:
http://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/BCS/strength_of_schedule_explain.htm
I believe you can just substitute offensive or defensive efficiency for record in the formula.
Other possible sources of guidance could be found by a google search for strength of schedule formula. |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
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Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: |
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| magicmerl wrote: | Nice analysis, Serhat.
Just a thought, do you think you could do the same analysis on last years playoffs? Noone denies that Phoneix and Dallas are two great offensive teams, and they are also great at racking up the regular season wins.
But does defense become more correlated with winning in the playoffs? |
Who is "Serhat"? |
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Mountain
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Serhat = owner of NBAstuffer.com = hoopseng here. |
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hoopseng
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 5:46 pm Post subject: |
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Very interesting. I like that it's a quick-hitter, cutting right to the chase. Can you tell me how you went about determining there were no statistically significant differences between night and matinee games? What method did you employ? |
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hoopseng
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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Location: Basketball Research
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| Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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I'm glad you'd liked it. I used likelihood ratio distance measure for the two times series.
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Dream-
Joined: 26 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Mountain wrote: |
I know there are strength of schedule and home & away adjusted power rankings but has anyone presented strength of schedule and home & away adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies? |
Interestingly enough this is similar to what I am proposing in this thread:
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1633
But I don't think strength of schedule tells the whole story, I believe the efficiencies should be adjusted on a per game, per team basis. |
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hoopseng
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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Efficiency Charts with rest days splits are available.
Team charts are in progress and will be up after the all-star break.
Looking forward to hearing your opinions...
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hoopseng
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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You've quickly made your site perhaps the premier source for detailed information specifically about efficiency change (going beyond what I would sometimes piece together thru review of team NBA efficiency game to game at hoopsstats.com).
Power rankings (especially John Hollinger's with the visible details) get at this too but it good to see the offensive / defensive breakout and the other detail of spefically when (under various conditions) teams are doing well or poorly. There is a lot of information can be gleaned by careful review of the charts, especially over time. Thanks for sharing your thorough efforts and look forward to any future additions or new directions.
If you are after more article ideas - and viewers of them - perhaps you could do a comprehensive look at / presentation of all or the most interesting of the individual team efficiency trends thru the season to date team by team or maybe by division?
Folks can poke around on their own and glean insight to teams but if you went from sharing the graphs to sharing a summary of what they say over time and might mean I think there are fans who would be interested in reading that. Perhaps you could even offer a copy of the article to fan blogs and thru exposure to the article generate more traffic back to your site? Just a thought for your consideration.
Or 2 other variations. If a download of all the charts over time (and included new ones like performance against teams of high/medium and low pace or offensive and defensive efficiency, strong 3 pt, post and fast break play, etc.) were available to writers / bloggers maybe some of them might write analytics rich articles complemented by other in depth team knowledge. That way you wouldn't to do the detective work and writing, you'd just be the data source.
Or perhaps teams might pay for a well-conceived and laid out efficiency detail and change thru time download service? Any team consultants have a view on that idea? |
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hoopseng
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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Location: Basketball Research
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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Mountain, thanks for your support and nice tips. This season is being an experimental one for me. After 2.5 months, NBAstuffer.com reached its traffic goal by getting 150-200 unique visitors per day. Besides the efficiency data, the most desired data is quarters and halves scores, they'll be up at the end of this week.
A big to do list waiting for me this summer...
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hoopseng
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Mountain wrote: |
Or 2 other variations. If a download of all the charts over time (and included new ones like performance against teams of high/medium and low pace or offensive and defensive efficiency, strong 3 pt, post and fast break play, etc.) were available to writers / bloggers maybe some of them might write analytics rich articles complemented by other in depth team knowledge. That way you wouldn't to do the detective work and writing, you'd just be the data source.
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I'd rather prefer to execute data mining jobs than writing. There's is big room for me to improve my article writing skills.
| Mountain wrote: |
Or perhaps teams might pay for a well-conceived and laid out efficiency detail and change thru time download service? Any team consultants have a view on that idea?
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I'm assisting NBA Teams' statistical consultants? Sounds really cool. This would be great. Hopefully, this becomes true one day...
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