I recall that in BoP, Dean suggests a way to adjust a player's ORtg based on his Poss%. The idea being that a low usage player puts more stress on his teammates to score, thus indirectly reducing their efficiency, etc.
Can anyone recall off hand what this adjustment was? I think it would be interesting to see how the WARP changes with it.
Also, I wonder how much impact it would make if on court team defensive efficiency numbers (say, from basketballvalue) were subbed in for DRtg.
As it is right now, I feel that low usage / high efficiency players, particularly those who play on good defensive teams, might be overrated a bit.
Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 463 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 7:29 pm Post subject:
I am accounting for usage in WARP. Basically, I place the player on a team where everyone else is completely average (20%poss, lg. avg. ORtg/DRtg). If he uses >20% of possessions, his on-court "teammates" are rewarded 0.6 pts/100 poss for every 1 %Poss they don't have to use. If he uses <20%, they have to take on that extra usage, and their ORtgs go down 0.6 for every extra 1 %Poss.
Player Tm Pos G Min P/36 2P% 3P% FT% TS%
barry,brent san SG 14 249 16.1 56.0 52.1 100.0 71.6
barea,jose_juan dal PG 13 139 21.2 59.0 53.3 100.0 68.5
nash,steve pho PG 16 550 19.2 56.0 50.0 98.2 67.9
gibson,daniel cle SG 17 566 13.7 46.3 52.6 83.3 66.8
posey,james bos SF 12 249 12.4 46.2 51.6 80.0 66.0
williams,sean njn C 12 234 15.6 62.5 0.0 66.7 66.0
ginobili,manu san SG 17 493 25.7 50.8 46.1 83.7 64.8
perkins,k. bos C 15 388 11.1 62.3 0.0 64.0 64.8
childress,josh atl SF 15 481 14.2 59.3 35.7 92.5 64.5
Assist Ratio Leaders (Min 95 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min AsR
kidd,jason njn PG 15 553 53.3
paul,chris nor PG 15 537 50.2
calderon,jose tor PG 16 402 49.8
ford,t.j. tor PG 12 326 49.6
nash,steve pho PG 16 550 48.5
james,lebron cle SF 16 637 41.6
tinsley,jamaal ind PG 17 591 38.6
billups,c. det PG 12 404 36.9
williams,deron uta PG 17 632 36.8
Turnover Ratio Leaders (Min 95 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min ToR
evans,maurice lal SG 7 95 0.0
butler,rasual nor SF 17 313 4.1
jones,dwayne cle C 14 124 5.0
finley,michael san SG 17 417 5.2
oberto,fabricio san C 17 357 6.2
peterson,morris nor SG 17 446 6.9
herrmann,walter cha SF 12 132 6.9
stojakovic,peja nor SF 17 550 7.8
francis,steve hou PG 5 107 7.9
Free Throw Rate Leaders (Min 95 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min FTr
collins,jarron uta C 17 194 95.2
lowry,kyle mem SG 15 383 87.3
howard,dwight orl C 18 688 83.7
allen,tony bos PG 12 148 83.3
hilario,nene den PF 5 97 81.8
williams,sean njn C 12 234 80.4
williams,sheld. atl PF 14 150 80.0
jones,dwayne cle C 14 124 78.6
mourning,alonzo mia C 15 235 77.4
3-Point Tendency Leaders (Min 95 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min 3Ptd
jones,eddie dal SG 5 96 78.9
bogans,keith orl SG 18 565 75.2
jones,damon cle PG 17 345 72.9
barry,brent san SG 14 249 65.8
jacobsen,casey mem SG 15 217 65.1
armstrong,d. njn PG 8 113 65.0
battier,shane hou SF 17 579 65.0
mason,roger was PG 14 134 64.4
house,eddie bos SG 14 279 64.0
Offensive Reb % Leaders (Min 95 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min OR%
dampier,erick dal C 10 157 17.4
dudley,jared cha SF 14 188 16.8
mihm,chris lal C 14 163 16.7
mohammed,nazr det C 14 176 16.1
noah,joakim chi C 9 106 16.1
foyle,adonal orl C 18 175 16.0
haywood,brendan was C 15 407 15.9
hollins,ryan cha C 12 172 15.7
boone,josh njn PF 11 100 15.2
Defensive Reb % Leaders (Min 95 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min DR%
thomas,kurt sea C 8 180 39.7
camby,marcus den C 17 574 34.5
bynum,andrew lal C 16 414 32.0
howard,dwight orl C 18 688 31.0
przybilla,joel por C 16 310 30.5
garnett,kevin bos PF 15 558 30.3
kaman,chris lac C 14 528 29.3
magloire,jamaal njn C 10 135 29.2
okafor,emeka cha PF 14 475 27.9
Block % Leaders (Min 95 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min Blk%
williams,sean njn C 12 234 9.1
ratliff,theo min C 6 160 8.9
mourning,alonzo mia C 15 235 8.3
blatche,andray was PF 16 322 8.0
smith,josh atl PF 14 506 7.7
harrison,david ind C 17 248 7.2
camby,marcus den C 17 574 7.1
skinner,brian pho PF 16 190 6.7
diop,desagana dal C 16 383 6.6
Steal % Leaders (Min 95 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min Stl%
brewer,ronnie uta SG 17 514 4.3
paul,chris nor PG 15 537 4.3
carter,anthony den PG 5 146 3.6
wade,dwyane mia SG 8 279 3.5
martin,kenyon den PF 15 335 3.4
francis,steve hou PG 5 107 3.4
ginobili,manu san SG 17 493 3.4
ivey,royal mil PG 12 125 3.4
hardaway,penny mia SG 14 301 3.4
Question about stop %: Is it a pretty good indicator of defensive ability for different sets of players? Does it produce a bias for certain positions, or for shot blockers, or for strong on-the-ball defenders, etc.? I'm thinking about adding it to the Defensive Composite Score stat I've been working on.
Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 463 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 9:26 am Post subject:
JNichols42887 wrote:
Question about stop %: Is it a pretty good indicator of defensive ability for different sets of players? Does it produce a bias for certain positions, or for shot blockers, or for strong on-the-ball defenders, etc.? I'm thinking about adding it to the Defensive Composite Score stat I've been working on.
-Jon Nichols
As I recall, doesn't DCS already use boxscore DRtg? If so, there's really no need to incorporate Stop% as well, since they're basically the same thing (DRtg is Stop% with team points per scoring possession factored into the mix). Here are the 2007-08 leaders in Stop % (min. 137 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min DRtg Stops Stop%
camby,marcus den C 22 753 92.1 231.8 0.730
garnett,kevin bos PF 21 746 88.6 199.5 0.710
howard,dwight orl C 24 927 93.8 259.0 0.699
smith,josh atl PF 21 759 96.8 194.0 0.689
marion,shawn pho PF 23 858 99.4 232.9 0.662
kaman,chris lac C 22 852 97.9 217.6 0.649
martin,kenyon den PF 20 502 95.9 135.9 0.642
williams,sean njn C 18 339 100.8 81.1 0.640
skinner,brian pho PF 23 289 100.5 75.4 0.636
bynum,andrew lal C 21 555 99.9 142.2 0.632
And the DRtg leaders:
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min DRtg Stops Stop%
garnett,kevin bos PF 21 746 88.6 199.5 0.710
camby,marcus den C 22 753 92.1 231.8 0.730
davis,glen bos SF 16 212 93.1 48.2 0.604
howard,dwight orl C 24 927 93.8 259.0 0.699
perkins,k. bos C 20 486 94.1 106.5 0.582
allen,tony bos PG 18 263 94.5 56.6 0.572
posey,james bos SF 18 386 94.9 81.6 0.562
pierce,paul bos SF 21 797 95.6 163.7 0.546
martin,kenyon den PF 20 502 95.9 135.9 0.642
rondo,rajon bos PG 21 674 95.9 136.9 0.540
It's the same idea, except now you see players from the best defensive teams showing up at the top. So I guess the choice between using Stop% and DRtg would be whether you wanted something that is largely individual but uses less information (Stop%), or something that uses more info but is, out of necessity, heavily team-dependent (DRtg).
Question about stop %: Is it a pretty good indicator of defensive ability for different sets of players? Does it produce a bias for certain positions, or for shot blockers, or for strong on-the-ball defenders, etc.? I'm thinking about adding it to the Defensive Composite Score stat I've been working on.
-Jon Nichols
As I recall, doesn't DCS already use boxscore DRtg? If so, there's really no need to incorporate Stop% as well, since they're basically the same thing (DRtg is Stop% with team points per scoring possession factored into the mix). Here are the 2007-08 leaders in Stop % (min. 137 MP):
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min DRtg Stops Stop%
camby,marcus den C 22 753 92.1 231.8 0.730
garnett,kevin bos PF 21 746 88.6 199.5 0.710
howard,dwight orl C 24 927 93.8 259.0 0.699
smith,josh atl PF 21 759 96.8 194.0 0.689
marion,shawn pho PF 23 858 99.4 232.9 0.662
kaman,chris lac C 22 852 97.9 217.6 0.649
martin,kenyon den PF 20 502 95.9 135.9 0.642
williams,sean njn C 18 339 100.8 81.1 0.640
skinner,brian pho PF 23 289 100.5 75.4 0.636
bynum,andrew lal C 21 555 99.9 142.2 0.632
And the DRtg leaders:
Code:
Player Tm Pos G Min DRtg Stops Stop%
garnett,kevin bos PF 21 746 88.6 199.5 0.710
camby,marcus den C 22 753 92.1 231.8 0.730
davis,glen bos SF 16 212 93.1 48.2 0.604
howard,dwight orl C 24 927 93.8 259.0 0.699
perkins,k. bos C 20 486 94.1 106.5 0.582
allen,tony bos PG 18 263 94.5 56.6 0.572
posey,james bos SF 18 386 94.9 81.6 0.562
pierce,paul bos SF 21 797 95.6 163.7 0.546
martin,kenyon den PF 20 502 95.9 135.9 0.642
rondo,rajon bos PG 21 674 95.9 136.9 0.540
It's the same idea, except now you see players from the best defensive teams showing up at the top. So I guess the choice between using Stop% and DRtg would be whether you wanted something that is largely individual but uses less information (Stop%), or something that uses more info but is, out of necessity, heavily team-dependent (DRtg).
Thanks for the clarification. I need to go back and read BoP again...
Personally, I might prefer replacing defensive rating with stop %, simply because DCS right now seems way too team-dependent.
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