APBRmetrics

[B Purist]

CONSISTENTLY DEFEATING SUPERIOR OPPONENTS (CDSO)
Conquering NBA Goliaths

I previously submitted a post titled Basketballs Greatest Coaches - A Different Criteria. During evaluations of teams and coaches that overachieved, I came up with the concept and term consistently defeating “superior” opponents (CDSO).

The ability to CDSO rates with the greatest and most satisfying achievements in all of coaching, but Goliath doesn’t get chopped down very often. A large number of major upsets belong in the fluky category and on certain days, Goliath barely escapes. Luck and randomness are part of the equation that account for the “on any given Sunday” football reality, and the semi-frequent upsets in the NBA regular season.

The ability to consistently defeat “superior” opponents is one of the rarest occurrences in all of sports history. When it does happen, the most common cause is execution prevailing over talent. The cumulative success of international teams vs. Team USA in basketball since the 2002 World Championships is among the best examples. The talent gap that international teams face when playing Team USA is astronomically larger then the talent gap that the NBA’s worst teams must overcome when they take on the NBA’s better squads in regular season action.

Execution is the great equalizer. Lesser teams can win despite non-desirable rosters and severe weaknesses. Sound basics can turn a decent or good team into a great team, while flawed fundamentals can turn a talented upper echelon team into an also-ran. There are proponents that espouse defense winning championships and it has been said that rebounds equal rings. My sentiment is all-inclusive. The phrase “Fundamentals Win Championships” has appeared in the footer of Basketball Purist stationary since the company’s inception.

I have conducted extensive study of the history and evolution of play structure and design dating back to Dr. Naismith’s thirteen original rules. It is difficult to figure out, but there are reasons why the usual and customary approaches to coaching have not lent themselves to consistently defeating superior opponents in recent NBA eras.

To accomplish the lofty goal of CDSO requires redefining and restructuring the mousetrap. Technological innovation and breakthrough advancements have often played a key role in monumental change and the ruin of top dogs. Turning industries upside down and rising to the top in corporate America usually involves intellectual property, trade secrets, patents, copywrites and trademarks. The desire to gain competitive advantage and outperform the very best of competitors dates back to my first experiences in corporate America. Little guys and new entries into marketplaces in private business are at an extreme disadvantage. They would have a better chance on a level playing field but that is not how it is. The scales are tipped to favor established firms and the sharks can be ruthless. I bucked the system and made my bones by battling tooth and nail to succeed at tackling Goliaths.

I built a business from scratch that specialized in medical emergency logistics. The new entry into the field grew to become the largest and most successful company of its kind in the world. The company soared to the top in less than 12 months because of innovations that exploited competitor weaknesses. The company did the highest volume in the industry and was rated #1 in efficiency by entities that monitored and tracked industry performance. The nearest competitor was a distant second. I spearheaded several other start-up ventures that started at ground zero and had phenomenal success. The accomplishments always stemmed from my ability to formulate new and better methods. Armed with competitive advantages I was confident and fearlessly pursued every giant that there was. I retired in 1992 because of exit strategies, boredom and family circumstance. I was 35 years old.

In an earlier APBR writing, I suggested that great coaching can me measured by how often a coach’s team overachieves. The concept ended with an admission that I am obsessed with how to accomplish this coaching goal. In 1994, I started to think seriously about how my business experiences could be applied to kicking ass in basketball. I have been immersed in the pursuit of ways to consistently defeat superior opponents (CDSO) in the NBA for fifteen years: living and breathing it twenty-four hours a day.

While staying relatively quiet in the background of APBR and metrics for years, I have absorbed and kept abreast of everything that has gone on in the public domain. My filing cabinet contains hard copy printouts from Dean O’s, JoBS (Journal of Basketball Studies) web site that date back to 1995. The infancy of his site corresponded with the time when my basketball undertakings grew more intense. I could relate to his fascination with the game. Back then, everything of value was printed out and put away for safekeeping.

The cat is now out of the bag and this document is the tip of the iceberg. Components of my Research & Discovery (hehe) will be posted at APBR.org and APBRmetrics. With an eye toward protecting proprietary information, I will soon be cautiously divulging select particulars about basketball advancements and innovations and their origins. New and better methods have been fully developed to generate competitive advantages and CDSO. Feedback, commentary, input, and constructive criticism from the basketball research community will be invaluable to me.

John “Jack” D
The Basketball Purist Inc

The Basketball Purist moniker is exemplified by an obsession with sound fundamentals, proper technique and the dynamics of perfecting execution.

[Mountain]

Would you consider strong win %s against good teams on this type of page
http://www.82games.com/0607/0607SAS4.HTM
as an indicator of a team with a high CDSO rating? Does your approach then involve tape, 4 factor or individual stat breakdown of team play against these superior teams?

[B Purist]

The ability to CDSO should be contrasted with the rate at which “better” teams protect against being victims of an upset. What coaches and teams have a track record for success in this area?

Here is what is known from examining every NBA regular season game for a period of recent years.

A) Teams with the five worst records in the league defeat teams that are above .500 more than one third of the time.

B) Teams with the five best records in the league lose to teams with sub .500 records more than one third of the time.

A and B are not the same. Item B occurs slightly more often than A.

Mountain asks a great question and the answer is yes. The details require more than a hill of data and lengthy explanation..

[B Purist]

My research in this area has been geared toward determinations of HOW execution prevails over talent.

The focus on causes of upsets and evaluations of a multitude of strategic adjustments led to the identification of some high impact variables and difference makers that have been overlooked by coaches and statisticians.

[jkubatko]

Please stop cross-posting your messages to both the APBR board and this one. If you really want to get a dialogue going, you're better off focusing on one place. Thank you.
_________________
Regards,
Justin Kubatko
Basketball Stats!