APBRmetrics

[superbox]

Jason Collins must be a freak of nature..
Or at the very least a freak of statistics.

His stats for this year

23.3 min, 2.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 0.6 ast, FG 37.5%, FT 47.5%, 0.45 blk, 0.97 TO, 3.5 PF

So statistically he is not only below average,
but near the bottom of the league in every single statistic!
(adjusted for his playing time & position)

He can't shoot, score, rebound, pass or block.
He fouls frequently, and has a lot of turnovers compared to possesions.

He has the worst PER for a regular starter in 20 years!

Yet he has started every single game for the Nets except one,
and amazingly has an on/off point differential of +5.5 which is second highest
on his team, higher than (admittedly overrated) Vince Carter.

Some might think this is a fluke but he has had a high on/off +- for nearly
every year in the league. (according to 82games.com)

Okay, so supposedly he is good at some things.
He's known as a good man to man defender, (without getting any steals or blocks)
sets good screens, gets loose balls.. whatever.
But it's not like he's the best defender in the league like Bruce Bowen
Ben Wallace, Ron Artest or even close to that.
And it's not that other guys don't set screens or don't get any loose balls,
it doesn't really require a lot of skill.

So he must be amazingly good at these "things that don't show up on the box score"
to be a plus on the Nets, when his stats are historically low.

It could be that his backup was even worse than him making is on/off +- look good,
but I can't really imagine a guy significantly worse than Jason Collins playing
in the league.

So I guess he is the best NBA player ever at doing "the little things".

Do you guys have another explanation?

[Neil Paine]

It looks like Collins has just a ridiculous impact on NJ's defense. This year, he has shaved 9.2 points off of their DRtg while he's on the floor; last year, it was 5.6 points; in 2005, 13.2 (!!) points; in 2004, 6.0 points; and in 2003, 3.7 pts/48 off their defensive scoring average (on/off DRtg not available that year). Looking at the numbers, a typical year for the Ben Wallaces and Ron Artests of the world doesn't even come close to making as much of a defensive impact as a typical Collins season. He also does well throughout his career in Dean's boxscore DRtg. I don't know what he's doing out there, because like you said, he's not stealing or blocking shots that much, but whatever it is, it's making a big difference on the Nets' D.

[superbox]

Thanks for the insight.

So I guess he has an incredible Basketball IQ on defense..
that he somehow can't translate to offense,
because he's not athletic and can't shoot.

Yet his defensive rating is only slightly better than the
league average, so it seems it's really difficult to gauge his value.

[Neil Paine]

Sports Illustrated ran a piece on Dan Rosenbaum and Dean Oliver's methods in their 2005-06 NBA preview, and they highlighted Collins as one the "hidden gems" revealed by Dan's adjusted plus-minus system:

"According to Rosenbaum's calculations, Collins is not a stiff at all but one of the NBA's premier defensive centers... Over the last three seasons the Nets have been remarkably more effective at the defensive end with Collins in the lineup; they foul less, allow fewer free throws, rebound better, and allow fewer points. 'He's very consistent and consistently very good,' says Rosenbaum, 'meaning he's either the luckiest center alive and [opposing] teams just fall apart when he's on the court, or he's doing something.'"

[superbox]

Well.. he could be a great trash talker.

And it's funny that the team fouls less and rebounds better,
when Collins fouls a lot, and is a bad rebounder.

I guess that's the importance of boxing out.

And since he doesn't get many offensive rebounds,
I guess he gets back on defense real quick which helps the defense.

[Neil Paine]

[superbox]

I guess playing only 4 players on offense doesn't affect the game that much as teams starting Rodman & Wallace have won the title.
But at least these guys were excellent offensive rebounders.

Maybe if Collins could rebound, the Nets could have won a championship.
I really don't think you could win a championship starting Collins,
unless you can substitute an offensive player for Collins on
virtually every possesion.

[deepak]

I don't think you can take too much from Jason Collin's Defensive Rating. Clearly, the most important things he's doing on the defensive end isn't really evident in the box scores. Outside of that, I think his Defensive Rating just reflects New Jersey's overall defensive rating which has generally been pretty good over the years.

[TrueHoop]

I have heard NBA players say Collins is a little bit, umm, extra fierce. If that's true, and he's someone players fear might injure them, that could have a big effect on shot selection without showing up in any traditional statistics. It would be interesting to see opponents' shot charts when he is in vs. out of the game. Maybe he leads the league in opponent layups never attempted.
_________________
Henry Abbott
http://www.truehoop.com

[Jon Nichols]

He's definitely useful in certain situations. In the Nets' last two playoff series against the Heat, he played tremendous defense on Shaq.

[John Hollinger]

Collins is a vastly underrated defender -- he's an outstanding position defender and draws lots of offensive fouls especially against post players, and probably guards Shaq better than anyone in the league. But the "terrible backup effect" may also play a role -- Jersey hasn't had a backup C who could guard anyone since they let Mutombo go; the past couple years they've used a well-past-prime Cliffy and the waifish Krstic to replace him.