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APBRmetrics
The statistical revolution will not be televised.
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RocketsFan
Joined: 23 Oct 2005
Posts: 404
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 Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 12:43 pm Post subject: Voting: 2004 |
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http://basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2004_final.html
Malone
Pippen
Grant
Voting:
Karl Malone: 7 (7), RocketsFan, Analyze This, gabefarkas, Mike G, Philosopher, davis21wylie2121, hpanic7342
Scottie Pippen: 7 (7), RocketsFan, Analyze This, gabefarkas, Mike G, Philosopher, davis21wylie2121, hpanic7342
Horace Grant: 3 (7), RocketsFan, Mike G, hpanic7342
Mark Jackson: 3 (7), Analyze This, gabefarkas, Mike G
Glen Rice: 1 (7), gabefarkas
Malone and Pippen are elected unanimously. Grant, Jackson, and Rice go to the VC.
Last edited by RocketsFan on Tue Mar 27, 2007 1:54 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Analyze This
Joined: 17 May 2005
Posts: 364
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| Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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Mark Jackson
Scottie Pippen
Karl Malone
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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Karl Malone should be a shoe-in. I think Mark Jackson and Glen Rice are also deserving.
I'm on the fence about Horace Grant and Charles Oakley.
And, as much as I tried and tried to convince myself and find every reason not to, I can't help but vote for (one of my least favorite players of all time) Scottie Pippen.
I still think he was vastly overrated though.
Last edited by gabefarkas on Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:42 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Philosopher
Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 76
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| Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 3:31 am Post subject: |
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Karl Malone
Scottie Pippen
Anyone who doesn't vote for Pippen is focused too much on PER and offensive stats. Pippen was probably the best defender I've ever seen. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3606
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 8:21 am Post subject: |
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5 Karl Malone
16 Scottie Pippen
67 Horace Grant
81 Mark Jackson
108 Charles Oakley
189 Glen Rice
197 Jamal Mashburn
236 Avery Johnson
Oakley played in 1426 games (15th alltime) and is 12th in eReb. Rodman is 13th (also 1 spot behind Oak in regular-season 'raw' rebounds).
Mark Jackson is 2nd in alltime assists, 23rd in steals, 77th in 3-pointers. Among guards, he's 14th in RS rebounds. Nobody has more Ast and Reb.
Horace was the Bulls' PF between Oak and the Worm; IMO, the best of the bunch; he did a little of everything. In their careers, who has more Pts, Reb, Ast, Stl, AND Blk, than Horace? -- Kareem, Hakeem, Karl, Garnett, and Erving, in raw regular-season totals. If you include playoffs and standardize to pace (and ABA), the list shortens to just Kareem and Hakeem. (And we might assume, Wilt and Russ).
Pippen's career stacks up pretty close to Oscar Robertson's. Karl Malone has more points AND more rebounds than any other forward. In standardized ePts, he's #1; in eReb #4.
Oh yeah, Horace Grant's TO totals/rates are a fraction of those other great players'.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3606
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 9:07 am Post subject: |
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From b-r.com's latest search engine (regular season only, since 1978):
The only players with more points and fewer turnovers than Horace Grant are Mike Mitchell and Dirk Nowitzki.
Players with more Reb and fewer TO: none
More Ast and fewer TO: 21 guys, all guards
More Stl and fewer TO: Dan Majerle and TR Dunn
More Blk and fewer TO: 15 guys; 9 who are listed as primarily centers, plus Ben Wallace, Ratliff, Dale Davis, Bo Outlaw, Hot Rod Williams, and Terry Tyler.
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 11:15 am Post subject: |
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The Mailman.
Pip. |
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hpanic7342
Joined: 16 Feb 2005
Posts: 201
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| Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2007 11:35 pm Post subject: |
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Mailman
Pippen
Grant |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 7:27 am Post subject: |
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| Philosopher wrote: | | Anyone who doesn't vote for Pippen is focused too much on PER and offensive stats. Pippen was probably the best defender I've ever seen. |
In the words of Neil Peart, show me don't tell me. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3606
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 9:31 am Post subject: |
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I've got Scottie #16 alltime just based on his stats; no consideration of awards or reputation. He wasn't as good as Oscar, but he played 260 more games.
Maybe his playoff exploits could be written off as 'coattail' effects. If I replace his 16.5% of minutes in playoffs with a more typical 8% (and 1 title instead of 6), he drops to #25; just behind John Havlicek.
Pippen's career is huge, and his playoff career ranks even higher (#12 alltime). His playoff rates were typically as good as his season rates.
Those Bulls teams never had a good center or an actual PG. Yet Pip was the perfect complement to the greatest player ever. Before Pippen, Jordan could not sit without the team losing points. With Pip in charge, they were at least average.
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2007 11:36 pm Post subject: |
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In his prime, Pippen averaged around 20 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 6 apg, 2 spg, 1 bpg, 3 TOpg, on .487 FG%, 0.345 on 3P%, and 0.703 FT%. I'm designating his "prime" as the '91 season (his second year getting decent starter's minutes, and with decent jumps in P/R/A from the year before), to '97, where he played 82 games (playing only 44 in an injury-riddled '98).
Crudely measured AsR over this period is 22, TOrate of 11, and UsgR of about 25, with a PER of 21. For your reference:
| Code: |
Season G MP FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
90-91 82 36.8 7.3 14.1 0.3 0.8 2.9 4.1 2 5.3 7.3 6.2 2.4 1.1 2.8 3.3 17.8
91-92 82 38.6 8.4 16.6 0.2 1 4 5.3 2.3 5.4 7.7 7 1.9 1.1 3.1 3 21
92-93 81 38.6 7.8 16.4 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.3 2.5 5.2 7.7 6.3 2.1 0.9 3 2.7 18.6
93-94 72 38.3 8.7 17.8 0.9 2.7 3.8 5.7 2.4 6.3 8.7 5.6 2.9 0.8 3.2 3.2 22
94-95 79 38.2 8 16.7 1.4 4 4 5.6 2.2 5.9 8.1 5.2 2.9 1.1 3.4 3 21.4
95-96 77 36.7 7.3 15.8 1.9 5.2 2.9 4.2 2 4.5 6.4 5.9 1.7 0.7 2.7 2.6 19.4
96-97 82 37.7 7.9 16.7 1.9 5.2 2.5 3.5 2 4.5 6.5 5.7 1.9 0.5 2.6 2.6 20.2
AVG 79 37.84 7.91 16.30 0.99 2.86 3.29 4.67 2.2 5.30 7.49 5.99 2.26 0.89 2.97 2.91 20.1
Season FG% 3P% FT% eFG% TS% AsR ToR Usg RbR PER ORtg DRtg
1990-91 0.52 0.309 0.706 0.529 0.561 25 11.3 23.2 11.6 20.6 114 102
1991-92 0.506 0.2 0.76 0.511 0.555 24.1 10.7 25.8 11.5 21.5 114 102
1992-93 0.473 0.237 0.663 0.482 0.51 22.7 11 25.4 11.5 19.2 108 104
1993-94 0.491 0.32 0.66 0.515 0.544 19.3 11.1 27.4 13.3 23.2 109 97
1994-95 0.48 0.345 0.716 0.522 0.559 18.6 12.4 25.8 12.5 22.6 110 98
1995-96 0.463 0.374 0.679 0.525 0.551 22.4 10.3 24.4 10.2 21 116 101
1996-97 0.474 0.368 0.701 0.531 0.554 21.5 9.8 24.1 9.7 21.3 115 101
AVERAGE 0.49 0.31 0.70 0.52 0.55 22.00 10.94 25.12 11.44 21.31 112.33 100.79
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To be honest, I would say these numbers are "really very very nice" and "worthy of RoH consideration" but not exceptional/superstar level. Mike, I was looking for your excel file with the player stats pythagorean comparison, but I can't find it. Can you take his averages over these years and do a similarity comparison?
Looking at his awards though, in the '91 to '97 seasons, he was named to 6 ASGs, garnered one ASG MVP, 3 All-NBA 1st teams, 2 2nd teams and one 3rd team. He was also All-D for all seven years (one 2nd team, six 1st teams).
His statistical accomplishments during that time, compared to his peers: twice in the top 10 in minutes played, twice in the top 10 in FGM, once ranked 10th in total assists, 5 times in the top 10 in steals (including leading the league in '95), and expectedly 5 times in the top 10 in steals/game, twice in the top 10 in points and once in PPG, only one year in the top 10 in UsgR, twice in PER, but three times in the top 10 in TOs.
Frankly, my subjective opinion is that his statistical accomplishments didn't merit his awards. In other words, there must be much about the superlative nature of his game that are not explained by these statistics. Or, he was overhyped. Or maybe a combination of the two.
It makes me wonder how someone like (just off the top of my head) Sidney Moncrief, Kevin Garnett, Lamar Odom, Clyde Drexler, Grant Hill, Jamal Mashburn, Barkley, Chris Mullin, Reggie Theus, or Sprewell would have played had they been paired with a singular talent like MJ. Would their stats have been enhanced by playing with Michael? He made the game so much easier for those around him. Was Scottie really the perfect compliment to Michael, or did Scottie learn to fit in around what Michael did, just as a few other skilled players could have?
As an example, here are the stats from another player who received a decent but not extraordinary amount of praise during his peak years:
| Code: |
Season G MP FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
84-85 80 36 6 11.6 0.1 0.3 4 5.2 1.9 3.5 5.4 6.8 1.6 0.7 3.1 3.2 16.1
85-86 80 33.8 5.1 10.5 0.1 0.6 4 4.9 1.6 3.4 5 7.8 2.1 0.9 3 3.1 14.3
86-87 61 33.7 4.8 10.1 0.3 0.9 4 5.4 1.6 3.2 4.9 7.2 1.8 0.8 3 3.5 13.9
87-88 75 33.1 4.6 9.4 0.1 0.5 3.8 4.8 1.7 3.3 5 7 1.5 0.5 2.6 3.1 13.1
88-89 67 32.4 4.6 9.7 0.2 0.8 2.8 3.6 1.1 2.8 3.9 6.6 1.8 0.7 2.7 3.3 12.1
AVG 72 33.8 5.02 10.26 0.16 0.62 3.72 4.78 1.58 3.24 4.84 7.08 1.76 0.72 2.88 3.24 13.9
Season G FG% 3P% FT% eFG% TS% AsR ToR Usg RbR PER ORtg DRtg
1984-85 80 0.517 0.35 0.758 0.521 0.577 28.6 13 21.9 8.3 17.6 114 104
1985-86 80 0.488 0.182 0.806 0.492 0.564 33.2 12.8 21.6 8.2 18.6 114 101
1986-87 61 0.477 0.291 0.738 0.49 0.556 31.8 13.4 21.3 8 16.7 110 105
1987-88 75 0.491 0.205 0.798 0.497 0.572 33.1 12.5 20.2 8.5 17 114 108
1988-89 67 0.474 0.218 0.776 0.483 0.539 31.9 13.4 20.4 7 15 107 106
0.49 0.25 0.78 0.50 0.56 31.69 12.99 21.10 8.03 17.07 112.04 104.70 |
Fewer PPG, RPG and APG were concomitant but slightly lower. Superior AstR, but with higher TOr and lower UsgR. Shooting percentages were nearly identical.
Player X's acclaim during this time? Two All-D 1st team and one All-D second team.
Granted, his "peak" was not nearly as high or as long as Pippen's. However, I would speculate that had he arrived on the scene a few years later and were drafted by Chicago, he would have been just as good, if not better, than Pippen was at being MJ's sidekick.
I guess what I'm driving at is questioning how much Scottie added in VORP (Value Over Replacement Pippen)? |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3606
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:43 am Post subject: |
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| gabefarkas wrote: | ... Can you take his averages over these years and do a similarity comparison?
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Of course; but I can only compare them to others' career averages, without further parameters.
| Code: | dif per 36 minutes Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
.00 91-97 pippen 20.8 7.8 5.8 2.8 2.2 2.9 .9
.28 Clyde Drexler 20.4 6.7 5.5 3.2 2.1 2.9 .7
.33 Grant Hill 21.9 7.9 5.9 2.5 1.5 3.1 .6
.37 Scottie Pippen 17.9 7.3 5.5 3.0 2.0 2.9 .9
.44 Larry Bird 22.8 9.9 5.7 2.5 1.7 3.0 .8
.61 Julius Erving 22.5 7.8 4.0 2.9 1.9 3.4 1.7
.63 Dwyane Wade 24.7 5.9 5.8 3.0 1.6 3.4 .8
.63 Rick Barry 22.1 5.5 4.5 3.0 2.1 2.8 .5
.63 Tracy McGrady 24.5 6.9 4.9 2.1 1.4 2.4 1.1
.63 Chris Webber 20.8 9.9 4.3 3.3 1.4 2.9 1.5
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His defensive numbers are closer to Drexler's, while his Reb/Ast mirror Hill's. He resembles himself, natch; beyond Bird, they're only passing resemblances.
Those primo Pippen rates aren't completely beyond what he did for his whole career; his scoring was less outside his peak.
The "Jordan made him better" supposition kind of melts when you see that his best years were '94 and '95. He got sharply more productive when Jordan retired; sharply curtailed when MJ returned.
A Euclidean similarity for his best (1994) year turns up some good comps:
| Code: | dif year per-36 rates Sco Reb Ast
.00 1994 Scottie Pippen 23.2 9.2 5.7
.37 1989 Clyde Drexler 24.0 7.5 4.9
.45 1984 Larry Bird 23.2 10.2 5.9
.46 2002 Karl Malone 23.1 9.8 4.4
.51 1996 Chris Webber 25.6 8.2 4.9
.54 1975 Julius Erving 23.8 9.0 5.0
.60 1981 Marques Johnson 22.7 7.5 4.5
.61 1963 Oscar Robertson 23.2 6.9 7.7
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This is prime Oscar, J, Drexler, CWebb; not quite peak Bird and past-prime Mailman. It might be argued that with 8 such years 'without Jordan', he's an alltime top 10.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3606
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:06 am Post subject: |
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| gabefarkas wrote: | ...
I guess what I'm driving at is questioning how much Scottie added in VORP (Value Over Replacement Pippen)? |
eWins is just such a VORP concept. In the 7 years, 1991-97, I give Pip 83.0 eW; just about 12 per year.
For their best run of 7 seasons, I find these comparative eW averages:
11.9 Pippen '91-97
11.2 Drexler '86-92
11.7 Hill (w. '99 pro-rated, his first 6 years averaged)
11.3 Erving ('78-84, not precisely his prime)
14.4 Bird '82-88
18.4 Jordan '87-93
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Darn. I had just signed on to add Oakley to my vote. Is it too late to move him to the VC? |
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