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[mathom]

http://www.geocities.com/torch772/Gordon.htm

The first part of the article is an introduction to the second part of the article and just discusses the importance and meaning of some other stats, and is probably a bit dumbed down for the average reader here. However, I think some of you would at least find the second part of the article interesting in the facts and numbers I dug up. Feedback appreciated.

[Dan Rosenbaum]

This is a very interesting article and it makes some good observations about Gordon. His combination of a high true shooting percentage and high true shot attempts per minute played is remarkable.

I think the article takes that observation and really runs with it. Perhaps maybe a bit too quickly. For one thing the article makes the point that Gordon is only surpassed in these two categories by two players from last season. This season there are three players that surpass Gordon on both of these categories (I am also pace adjusting), and they are Shaquille O'Neal, Ray Allen, and LeBron James. Although to be fair we should probably throw in those players who are scoring more per 40 minutes than Ben Gordon and have a higher true shooting percentage. That would add Amare Stoudemire, Corey Maggette, Yao Ming, Gilbert Arenas, and Dwyane Wade to the list. But that is still just a list of eight players. Pretty select company.

The article then goes on to give a lot of credit for the Bulls' improvement. That is where I find the article the weakest. In 2003-04 the Bulls scored 94.9 points per 100 possessions, which was about 5.5 points less than the median team. This season they are scoring 97.9 points per 100 possessions, which is 5.1 points less than the median team. So the Bulls' offense has improved some, but taking into account the league-wide increase in offensive efficiency the improvement has been pretty negligible.

Thus, the extrapolation of how important Gordon has been to the team's success, I find to be less than fully convincing. The Bulls have improved due to a dramatic improvement in defense and better clutch play. If I was going to make a case for the value of Gordon, I would make it based upon his clutch play, which has been nothing short of remarkable. He is averaging 42.6 points per 48 minutes in clutch time with a true shooting percentage of 67 percent. And his assist and turnover rates are better than in non-clutch time.

Lots of folks have been critical of Skiles' handling of Gordon's minutes (relative to Duhon's), most famously John Hollinger. But the curious thing is that the plus/minus is not much different for Duhon and Gordon. And with Skiles' almost random substitution patterns, this plus/minus data is a more accurate gauge of value for the Bulls than it is for most teams.

Another factor that I think has been in the back of Skiles' mind is not to turn Gordon into the savior by burdening him with being the leading scorer for the Bulls. Let him do his thing in the 4th quarter, but don't load the expectations of the whole city on his back by making him the go-to guy all four quarters. By keeping him fresh for the 4th quarter and picking and choosing opportunities where Gordon can succeed, I think Skiles has done a great job of building his confidence. He is one guy who I think might see his production fall some if he played 30 to 35 minutes a night.

But overall this is a very nice article and welcome to the board.

[mathom]

Thanks for the reply Dan. I've been incredibly busy as of late with school and haven't had the time to reply properly, but I've been meaning to reply to this for awhile now. I wanted to run all the numbers first to make a complete reply but a quick, short reply will have to do.

I mentioned somewhere in my article that I hadn't yet run the numbers for this season, which granted will change things somewhat when making comparisons from this year based on last year's stats. Hopefully I can make a better supported reply once I've been able to take a look at the league numbers. That said, of the few things I did look at for this year, one was the offensive stats for this year's Bulls. I seem to have quite different offensive efficiency/offensive rating numbers than you for both seasons. Are you using the formula PPG/(FGA + FTA/2.5)? Also, the Bulls as you mentioned are 5.1ppg less than the median in scoring this year, and were 5.5ppg below the median last year. I entirely disagree with the conclusion you drew from that (and I generally don't put much stock in clutch statistics, I tend to believe in most cases they're just variance due to smaller sample sizes, but that's a post for a different time). What it fails to account for is the Bulls are using less possessions per game this year as well, if I remember right, about 1.5 possessions less. Even just using the numbers you're citing, it would appear that the Bulls have gained about 2 points per game on the median team, which is roughly 5-6 wins a season, which is substantially more than negligible IMO. Also, as I mentioned, my offensive efficiency numbers shows a much larger improvement than yours - I'm not sure if I made a mistake or you did, or if we're using different formulas or not. If I recall correctly, the Bulls were about average defensively last season, but far, far away the worst offensive team in the league (to the tune of something like 2 or 3 points per 100 possesions worse than the 2nd worst team). Anyhow, thanks for the reply, Id be curious to see what formula youre using for offensive efficiency/rating or if either of us made a mistake calculating/entering the numbers.

Also, just thought I'd mention, since the writing of the article Gordon has increased his seasonal averages even higher - to 1.11 OE and .561 OP/M. His line last night: 29 points on 21 shots in 25 minutes. Good god. He probably would have dropped 40 last night if he had gotten starter's minutes. How is it possible he's not starting still?