APBRmetrics

[replayhoops]

I was wondering if anyone had methods to estimating certain statistics (such as turnovers and offensive rebounds) for those years before such stats were kept by the NBA?

Thanks,

Dave

[Mike G]

Here's my estimated turnover formula:

eTO = .08*Pts + .07*Reb + .16*Ast + .05*Stl + .10*Blk - .005*Min

I don't have real theories behind the correlations; I just tinkered with the factors until listing guys' TO/eTO ratio, I seemed to have all sorts of players (PG,PF, etc) in all parts of the list.

Of course, this formula doesn't help you before 1974; in that era, you further have to estimate steals and blocks. Since these are so variable, I haven't concentrated on anything very precise. But here they are:

eStl = sqrt(Ast) - .4

eBlk = sqrt(Reb) - 1.6

Some guys will come up with negative numbers, so do whatever you think. (SQRT is Excellese for square root.)

In 1974, players were turning it over much more than today. There's a theory that a faster game pace might naturally produce more TO. But I don't know. You still have to take care of the ball for some 24 minutes. Shooting quickly is one way to avoid turnovers.

[kjb]

Check appendix 4 in "Basketball On Paper" for Dean Oliver's method.

[Mike G]

This topic reminds me I haven't checked TO/eTO lately. It turns out, of 350 players with at least 215 minutes, there are 15 guys who turn it over at least 50% more than they should (according to the aforementioned formula):

TO/e player pos tm TO
1.97 Araujo,Rafael C Tor 2.4
1.82 Telfair,Sebastia PG Por 3.1
1.76 Livingston,Shaun PG LAC 3.1
1.70 Martin,Kevin SG Sac 1.8
1.69 Norris,Moochie PG NY 2.1
1.66 Rogers,Rodney SF NO 2.7
1.63 Diaw,Boris SF Atl 2.3
1.63 Barbosa,Leandro PG Phe 2.6
1.62 Williams,Aaron PF Tor 1.6
1.59 Brown,Kwame PF Was 2.4
1.56 Gill,Eddie PG Ind 1.9
1.56 Perkins,Kendrick PF Bos 2.4
1.55 Ivey,Royal SG Atl 2.2
1.50 Murray,Ronald SG Sea 2.3
1.50 Collier,Jason C Atl 2.1


Several rookies head the list; only 2 play over 20 mpg (Livingston, 22; and Rogers, 30). The number after the team name is normalized TO/36.

Now here are the best at taking care of the ball, relative to their production:

.28 Hoiberg,Fred SG Min .5
.35 Thomas,Billy SG NJ .4
.37 Varejao,Anderson SF Cle .7
.43 Marshall,Donyell PF Tor .9
.43 Laettner,Christi PF Mia .7
.47 Cook,Brian PF LAL .8
.48 Lafrentz,Raef C Bos 1.1
.50 Bowen,Bruce SF SA .7
.50 Daniels,Antonio PG Sea 1.2
.51 Doleac,Michael C Mia .7
.51 Battier,Shane SF Mem .9
.52 Bonner,Matt PF Tor .8
.54 Griffin,Eddie PF Min 1.1
.54 Marion,Shawn PF Phe 1.4
.54 Booth,Calvin C Dal .7
.55 Jones,Jumaine SF LAL .8
.55 Finley,Michael SG Dal 1.1
.55 Padgett,Scott PF Hou .9
.56 Miller,Brad C Sac 1.5
.57 Duncan,Tim PF SA 2.1

Until Duncan, all are very-low TO players, per-minute. And only 1 player listed as PG (Daniels, who is really just a "guard"). Suggesting that the high-risk Assist category may tend to have built-in turnovers. System turnovers?

[HoopStudies]

[replayhoops]

Thanks for the replies, guys. I just bought Dean's book and will take a look!

Dave