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Estimating Totals?

 
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farbror



Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 15
Location: Sweden
PostPosted: Thu Mar 09, 2006 4:11 am    Post subject: Estimating Totals? Reply with quote
What are most promising models for estimating totals? Which distributions seem most promising for model totals?

What is the Golden Standard guesstimate of the probability for a game to land on an specific number? I have read that 0.02 (2%) is a standard estimate (for numbers really close to the Total being posted by the man in Vegas)
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Tmon



Joined: 09 Oct 2005
Posts: 9
Location: Boston
PostPosted: Thu Mar 09, 2006 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
You're not going to get much play on gambling questions here.

That said, I suggest checking out the Dolphinsim (http://www.dolphinsim.com/ratings/) work, with lots of math to slog through. You can get total and spread guesstimates, with all their critical, not-to-be-ignored caveats. At least check this out and understand, cause it's probably as complicated as anyone would like to get.

Also, Sagarin (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm) may be of interest for spreads. His formulas are not public, however.
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