Joined: 31 Dec 2004 Posts: 881 Location: Durham, NC
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 6:56 am Post subject:
Dan Rosenbaum wrote:
gabefarkas wrote:
how do you guys handle FTA's where the team retains possession after the FT's? like technicals or flagrants and such?
is it two possessions, or one?
I think the consensus is that technicals count as zero possessions. In general, the possession of the ball does not change from one team to the other during a technical, flagrant, etc. Counting them as zero possessions is one of the reasons why free throw attempts count, on average, only 0.44 possessions.
so even if a team scores a point on a FTM, it's rolled into the next possession.
My argument from here is that the unallocated free throws should be allocated to two pointers and three pointers by their proportions of overall shots. If two pointers are 75% of field goal attempts, then 75% of the unallocated free throws should be allocated to two pointers and 25% should be allocated to three pointers.
Instead of the 75/25 split, wouldn't it be more accurate to split it along the lines of 21,155/319, or 98.5/1.5, the split between free throws from twos and threes? One thing we do know is that a very small percentage of free throws are associated with threes, so giving them 25 % of unallocated free throws seems very generous. _________________ The Best Miami Heat Coverage
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Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 497 Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:26 am Post subject:
CrazyFromTheHeat wrote:
Dan Rosenbaum wrote:
My argument from here is that the unallocated free throws should be allocated to two pointers and three pointers by their proportions of overall shots. If two pointers are 75% of field goal attempts, then 75% of the unallocated free throws should be allocated to two pointers and 25% should be allocated to three pointers.
Instead of the 75/25 split, wouldn't it be more accurate to split it along the lines of 21,155/319, or 98.5/1.5, the split between free throws from twos and threes? One thing we do know is that a very small percentage of free throws are associated with threes, so giving them 25 % of unallocated free throws seems very generous.
I am only allocating the free throws that cannot be allocated to either two pointers or three pointers - mostly the non-shooting fouls. I am not allocating all free throws.
I guess I don't understand the point that a foul in the backcourt that leads to free throws or a technical free throw should almost always be allocated to two pointers. Many of those possessions end up in three point attempts. To me it makes more sense it just makes sense to allocate them in the proportion in which field goal attempts end up being two pointers or three pointers. Otherwise, I think we bias ourselves into thinking that two pointers are more efficient than they really are. My allocation method, in essence, does not allow these unallocated free throws to have an effect on the relative efficiency of two pointers vs. three pointers. That seems more reasonable to me.
Dan - I'd add a very minor quibble: Shouldn't we add in the already allocated two-point FTA and three-point FTA along with two-point FGA and 3PA? The 75/25 would seem to very slightly underrate the number of possessions which end up inside the three-point line.
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 497 Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:24 am Post subject:
admin wrote:
Dan - I'd add a very minor quibble: Shouldn't we add in the already allocated two-point FTA and three-point FTA along with two-point FGA and 3PA? The 75/25 would seem to very slightly underrate the number of possessions which end up inside the three-point line.
Good point. I agree. We should add in the possessions attributed to each. Now I really don't have the data to do that, since I don't have field goal attempt data (two pointers vs. three pointers) as of the data that this free throw data is collected. But it would shift the allocation slightly more towards two pointers.
Dan - If the goal of your figures is to compute true shooting percentage separately for two point attempts and three point attempts, to isolate the two separate skills, then maybe the unallocated free throws should just be left out. I suppose that wouldn't chamge the result much, but seeing that you already have the info, and that the unallocated free throws by their definition have not come from a two-point or three-point play, it seems like there's no need to use them. _________________ The Best Miami Heat Coverage
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Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 497 Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:16 am Post subject:
CrazyFromTheHeat wrote:
Dan - If the goal of your figures is to compute true shooting percentage separately for two point attempts and three point attempts, to isolate the two separate skills, then maybe the unallocated free throws should just be left out. I suppose that wouldn't chamge the result much, but seeing that you already have the info, and that the unallocated free throws by their definition have not come from a two-point or three-point play, it seems like there's no need to use them.
We have the free throw info for the whole league in this one case. But when I am wanting to compute two-point and three-point true shooting percentages for all 30 teams on a daily basis, we don't have the info (in an easily usable form) to do that.
Dan - If the goal of your figures is to compute true shooting percentage separately for two point attempts and three point attempts, to isolate the two separate skills, then maybe the unallocated free throws should just be left out. I suppose that wouldn't chamge the result much, but seeing that you already have the info, and that the unallocated free throws by their definition have not come from a two-point or three-point play, it seems like there's no need to use them.
We have the free throw info for the whole league in this one case. But when I am wanting to compute two-point and three-point true shooting percentages for all 30 teams on a daily basis, we don't have the info (in an easily usable form) to do that.
Silly me! The way some of us come up with pages of stats around here (most notably you and Ed), I just assume that if I asked for Shaq's free throw percentage based on pre-game nap lengths, someone would trace it all the way back to LSU. _________________ The Best Miami Heat Coverage
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