APBRmetrics

[Nikos]

Does anyone have a specific system or basic efficiency equation in terms of scoring or Pts/Possesion can they post it?

The value of possesion changes in the playoffs no? Most players tend to do worse than their regular season production/efficiency -- but how can you tell how efficient or effective a player is at scoring or at scoring per possesion if you DO NOT KNOW the value of possesion to factor in with FREE THROWS?

Anyone have a method or system for calculating this?

Any ideas would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

[Nikos]

Would you consider someone who simply meets or exceeds their regular season #'s as Overacheiving or 'stepping up' in the playoffs? Isn't it hard to create a system that factors in not only the numbers, but their efficiencies in the playoffs relative to that teams opponnent from series to series.

Does anyone have a method for for determining how efficient someone is in the playoffs, considering the possesions are more valuable and scoring/efficiency usually goes down a bit in the playoffs?

[Yyzlin]

[Nikos]

Thats just the thing though, it seems that possesions mean more in the playoffs -- but again the whole idea of the playoffs is teams play each other more often and have time to adjust etc... Therefore its imperative to compare how players do against the opposition and as a team. You can't really factor FTs that will happen in the future on a team/players efficiency of a team that lost. For some reason for the playoffs its seems less logical than an 82 game regular season. Probably because playoff series are more controlled because one team plays against the other for an extended period of time.

Perhaps rates or efficiencies should be calculated for each series, and weighted differently as the playoff rounds progress? Perhaps an equation can be derived based on (perhaps) Mike Goodman's type of Trates where players are weighted against the opposition and are only considered in the context of that ONE SERIES.

[gabefarkas]

most players' playoff stats are less than their regular season stats. i think the figure i've seen is like 96% or so.

[Mike G]

Since my hat has been thrown into the ring, I guess I'll go fetch it.

Effective shooting % definitely takes a beating in postseason, along with every other team and individual rate. Rebounders are fighting above-average rebounders, the best players on both teams play more minutes, etc. Fatigue affects shooting probably more than any other stat.

The 96% figure quoted is close to the norm for the "average minute" of playoff basketball. As with our other discussions of 'average', this doesn't account for marginal players that virtually disappear (either in effectiveness or actual court appearance).

A given playoff series may or not have reduced rates. 2 high-scoring teams may produce inflated boxscore stats. And the "value of a possession" thus does not have straight "playoff conversion".

In general, further rounds of the playoffs should have higher levels of competition. I don't have individual series totals before the last couple of years. But for the Finals, players' rates tend to be around .92 of what they are in the regular seasons.

Maybe for the 4 rounds of playoffs, conversion rates of .98, .96, .94, and .92 could be applied, respectively. This doesn't really cover the situation of a 1 seed meeting an 8 seed, but 4 vs. 5 ?

[CrazyFromTheHeat]

Going back to Nikos'original post I can throw in my system from the other thread, which might be interesting to look at through the playoffs:

Shooting Efficiency = Total Points divided by [FGA + ((FTA - BFTA) divided by two)]

where BFTA is bonus free throw attempts, or attempts taken after a made basket

but none of that answers where the thread is now. Are we just trying to analyze points per possession, or are we trying to equate the playoff numbers to the regular season numbers, or are we trying to analyze the effect of playing the same opponent for many conscutive games? The last question might be the most interesting. Wouldn't it be something to see Shaq's point per possession for each game series number? So then you could compare Shaq's - or every player's - career game 1 performances vs his game 4 performances. I'd love to see that.
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[Nikos]

MikeG is there a website where you have an archive of past years and players in the playoffs per series/season etc....? I remember on Hopsanaylst you had some for the finals vs players reg season numbers. Do you have that for the past few seasons for all players and series?

Thanks