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APBRmetrics
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| Who's gonna win? |
| Bos 4-0 |
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0% |
[ 0 ] |
| Bos 4-1 |
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10% |
[ 2 ] |
| Bos 4-2 |
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30% |
[ 6 ] |
| Bos 4-3 |
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10% |
[ 2 ] |
| LA 4-3 |
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25% |
[ 5 ] |
| LA 4-2 |
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25% |
[ 5 ] |
| LA 4-1 |
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0% |
[ 0 ] |
| LA 4-0 |
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0% |
[ 0 ] |
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| Total Votes : 20 |
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| Author |
Message |
Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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 Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:18 am Post subject: 2010 Finals : Celtics vs Lakers |
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The series features 10 players from each team who have known playoff histories of at least 213 minutes coming into this season. I haven't used this year's minutes in their career playoff / regular-season productivity (T) ratio : po/rs.
Playoff overachievers and underachievers tend to carry that particular trait throughout their career. Individual playoff series may vary widely, as do whole postseasons. But it's still better to know a player's po/rs history than to not know it.
So I've grabbed that vital statistic, along with this year's T rate and eWins/480 rate; projected minutes per game for each player; regressed to the mean their po/rs, according to career playoff minutes; further diminished their expectations due to the competition (summing to 1.00 eW per game).
I've also given the Lakers a boost relative to the Celtics, due to their season's stats being accrued in a tougher environment (the West).
| Code: | Celtics poMin po/rs adjP/R T e480 T2 e2 mpg eW/G
Rasheed Wallace 5407 .92 .91 24.7 1.06 22.4 .79 20 .033
Michael Finley 3751 .88 .88 19.8 .61 17.4 .27 3 .002
Paul Pierce 3096 .95 .93 29.8 1.53 27.6 1.30 38 .103
Ray Allen 3045 .93 .91 24.5 1.04 22.2 .78 38 .062
Kevin Garnett 2990 .90 .89 33.0 1.84 29.5 1.47 34 .104
Rajon Rondo 1403 1.04 .98 28.5 1.42 28.1 1.37 38 .108
Kendrick Perkins 1165 .99 .95 27.3 1.31 26.0 1.16 28 .067
Glen Davis 640 1.16 1.07 21.0 .72 22.5 .91 24 .045
Marquis Daniels 571 .88 .88 16.8 .32 14.8 -.16 3 -.001
Tony Allen 213 .58 .72 23.3 .93 16.7 .15 14 .004
totals 240 .527
Lakers poMin po/rs adjP/R T e480 T2 e2 mpg eW/G
Kobe Bryant 6823 .94 .93 34.4 1.96 31.8 1.70 40 .141
Derek Fisher 4716 .99 .96 16.3 .27 15.6 .06 36 .004
Lamar Odom 2512 1.01 .98 27.1 1.28 26.5 1.22 32 .081
Pau Gasol 2180 .91 .91 34.3 1.96 31.3 1.65 40 .137
Ron Artest 1683 .95 .94 19.6 .59 18.4 .42 34 .030
Luke Walton 1172 .98 .95 17.1 .36 16.3 .19 2 .001
Sasha Vujacic 867 .73 .80 18.4 .48 14.7 -.11 2 .000
Jordan Farmar 724 .90 .90 19.8 .61 17.9 .34 14 .010
Andrew Bynum 443 .80 .85 31.5 1.69 26.6 1.18 20 .049
Shannon Brown 261 .97 .95 20.0 .63 19.0 .49 20 .020
totals 240 .473
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An eWin differential of .527-.473 is equivalent to a pythagorean of .554-.446.
This first pass therefore favors Boston by 1.6 PPG; but the Lakes have a home court advantage.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 8:14 am Post subject: |
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As seen in other threads, series by series performances by the Finalists --
Celtics:
| Code: | Allen,Ray
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .140 35 .678 26.9 3.0 3.6 1.0 1.9 .0 1.92 19 31.9
Cle .056 39 .537 15.2 3.6 2.0 .9 1.3 .3 .70 12 19.7
Orl .084 41 .570 15.7 4.6 2.9 .9 1.0 .1 .99 13 23.5
Allen,Tony
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .021 17 .525 14.1 3.1 .8 3.1 1.6 1.2 .61 0 20.0
Cle .045 20 .610 16.3 6.0 1.5 2.2 1.9 1.1 1.08 0 23.1
Orl -.007 14 .529 8.0 3.5 2.3 .8 2.8 .8 -.23 0 10.9
Davis,Glen
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .058 22 .557 15.9 8.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 .0 1.26 0 25.9
Cle .010 16 .500 13.1 6.7 .6 1.0 2.4 .7 .31 0 16.3
Orl .042 22 .588 13.4 8.3 .2 1.0 1.0 1.0 .90 0 22.5
Garnett,Kevin
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .117 28 .600 20.2 10.2 2.6 1.8 2.1 .5 2.01 0 32.7
Cle .143 34 .551 21.2 9.7 2.1 .5 1.4 .9 2.00 0 31.4
Orl .075 33 .405 10.5 9.9 2.5 1.1 .8 .8 1.11 0 24.6
Perkins,Kendrick
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .008 28 .468 8.0 11.1 1.6 .3 4.1 2.9 .14 0 15.8
Cle .050 26 .606 10.3 11.0 .8 .2 1.4 3.2 .92 0 21.7
Orl .011 23 .450 7.3 8.2 1.5 1.6 3.5 1.9 .23 0 15.7
Pierce,Paul
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .129 39 .576 22.5 6.0 3.1 .6 2.5 .8 1.61 11 29.1
Cle .044 35 .433 13.1 5.6 3.5 1.2 2.6 .2 .61 8 19.0
Orl .203 42 .652 27.0 8.0 3.2 1.3 2.6 .4 2.33 13 37.1
Rondo,Rajon
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .155 42 .493 14.3 6.1 9.0 2.1 2.6 .2 1.78 3 30.7
Cle .208 42 .579 20.9 6.3 9.4 1.6 3.2 .0 2.39 3 34.8
Orl .093 40 .455 13.3 3.5 6.9 1.8 2.4 .0 1.10 1 24.5
Wallace,Rasheed
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .001 13 .487 9.6 5.4 1.0 .5 .5 .5 .05 0 15.0
Cle .013 17 .597 12.2 5.1 .3 1.3 .6 1.0 .37 5 16.8
Orl .039 16 .574 19.3 5.7 .0 .7 1.0 1.7 1.14 9 24.9
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Lakers: | Code: | Artest,Ron
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl -.003 37 .395 6.2 3.0 2.4 1.6 .7 .8 -.04 6 14.0
Uta .033 35 .490 11.3 3.6 2.5 1.3 .8 .3 .46 6 18.7
Phx .045 38 .544 12.2 5.0 1.6 1.6 1.1 .3 .56 11 19.9
Brown,Shannon
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .014 15 .514 14.2 2.9 2.3 1.4 1.8 .4 .43 3 18.3
Uta .010 19 .439 10.8 3.7 1.1 1.8 1.8 .9 .27 3 16.6
Phx .006 13 .413 9.5 3.5 2.4 .9 1.8 1.3 .22 3 15.9
Bryant,Kobe
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .138 37 .498 25.6 4.1 3.9 1.3 3.5 .3 1.81 12 30.7
Uta .187 41 .598 32.1 3.5 4.4 .7 3.6 .7 2.19 3 37.4
Phx .220 42 .631 30.0 7.0 5.6 .7 2.2 1.0 2.53 19 43.3
Bynum,Andrew
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .105 30 .576 15.8 11.3 1.1 .4 1.4 2.7 1.70 0 29.7
Uta .074 25 .564 10.8 13.4 1.6 .7 .7 2.6 1.44 0 29.3
Phx .043 18 .614 14.1 13.1 .3 .3 2.0 2.4 1.14 0 26.8
Farmar,Jordan
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .017 14 .559 14.3 4.3 2.8 .8 1.9 .0 .59 5 19.7
Uta -.004 10 .471 9.8 .8 1.3 .8 .8 .0 -.18 4 11.8
Phx .025 15 .700 14.9 3.1 4.8 2.3 2.3 .0 .81 9 22.9
Fisher,Derek
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .021 32 .570 13.2 2.7 3.5 1.1 2.7 .2 .32 14 17.3
Uta .025 37 .577 11.2 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.5 .0 .32 5 17.2
Phx .025 34 .592 12.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.3 .0 .35 6 17.4
Gasol,Pau
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .183 36 .571 20.8 12.5 3.4 .2 1.9 1.4 2.43 0 36.3
Uta .216 40 .662 25.1 13.9 2.2 .5 2.5 2.5 2.61 0 42.1
Phx .102 41 .596 17.0 7.2 2.5 .1 1.3 1.6 1.20 0 27.5
Odom,Lamar
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .043 26 .456 9.4 9.1 2.2 .9 1.3 1.7 .79 4 21.5
Uta .070 28 .603 11.6 12.6 1.8 .0 .9 1.8 1.20 3 26.7
Phx .096 34 .503 12.8 13.7 2.5 1.2 1.5 .5 1.34 2 29.2
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Rates are per-36, adjusted for opponent scoring and rebounding, for % of minutes played vs starters, for % of points unassisted, % of teammates' FG assisted, etc.
Eff% = Pts/(FGA*2 + FTA)
At this moment, there are 5 poll votes for Bos, 4 for LA.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 8:46 am Post subject: |
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LA 1 , Bos 0
102 - 89 : Pyth .86 - .14 , eWins .68 - .32
| Code: | eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.25 Bryant,Kobe LA 39 .556 33.7 8.7 5.6 3.8 .9 3.8 .9 3.09
.24 Gasol,Pau LA 47 .605 21.3 14.3 2.3 3.1 .8 2.3 2.3 2.43
.15 Pierce,Paul Bos 46 .615 20.1 7.7 3.0 3.9 .0 2.4 1.6 1.54
.10 Artest,Ron LA 33 .682 18.3 5.9 1.1 4.5 2.2 .0 1.1 1.52
.07 Rondo,Rajon Bos 40 .406 10.5 5.9 7.0 1.8 .0 1.8 .0 .87
.07 Garnett,Kevin Bos 35 .471 14.9 4.6 1.0 3.2 2.1 1.1 1.1 .93
.06 Fisher,Derek LA 28 .474 12.4 5.2 3.9 4.0 1.3 .0 .0 .99
.05 Bynum,Andrew LA 28 .625 14.9 10.5 .0 4.0 .0 1.3 .0 .85
.04 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .900 19.1 8.0 .0 5.5 .0 1.8 1.8 1.16
.04 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 24 .889 15.1 5.0 1.5 4.6 1.5 1.5 .0 .71
.02 Farmar,Jordan LA 13 .500 11.3 6.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 .0 .68
.01 Robinson,Nate Bos 13 .000 .0 5.4 9.7 5.0 .0 .0 .0 .34
.00 Vujacic,Sasha LA 8 .000 .0 5.3 7.9 4.0 .0 .0 .0 .13
.00 Odom,Lamar LA 21 .357 7.7 8.5 1.6 8.0 .0 3.2 1.6 .03
-.01 Davis,Glen Bos 19 .375 4.5 5.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 .0 -.13
-.02 Allen,Ray Bos 27 .545 16.2 .0 .0 6.9 .0 2.7 .0 -.30
-.03 Allen,Tony Bos 17 .400 7.0 .0 .0 7.8 2.0 3.9 2.0 -.80
-.04 Brown,Shannon LA 17 .600 .0 2.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -1.01
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LA owned the boards, 42-31.
Poll reads LA 7 , Bos 6
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:12 am Post subject: |
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The Beta SPM evaluation of this game:
| Code: | Boston Celtics Adjust 0.13
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Paul Pierce -1.09 1.11 0.23 -2.21 0.61 2.76 1.70 3.24 95.1% 3.08
Rajon Rondo 1.56 -0.77 3.77 -2.21 -0.80 -4.41 1.01 -1.72 82.3% -1.41
Kevin Garnett 0.42 -0.67 -1.30 3.32 0.12 -0.80 0.47 1.69 72.5% 1.22
Ray Allen -1.09 -1.41 -2.26 -2.21 -0.80 -0.58 -0.37 -8.59 56.9% -4.89
Kendrick Perkins -0.01 -0.37 -1.21 1.76 -0.80 4.36 -0.70 3.16 50.9% 1.61
Reserves
Glen Davis 0.32 -0.04 -0.94 2.97 -0.80 -4.52 -1.36 -4.24 38.8% -1.64
Rasheed Wallace -1.09 1.39 -2.26 -2.21 0.96 7.14 -1.40 2.67 37.9% 1.01
Tony Allen -1.09 -1.41 -2.26 3.66 1.13 -7.91 -1.59 -9.33 34.5% -3.22
Nate Robinson -1.09 0.56 4.59 -2.21 -0.80 -9.86 -1.99 -10.67 27.1% -2.89
Michael Finley -1.09 -1.41 -2.26 -2.21 -0.80 -0.76 -3.24 -11.63 4.0% -0.47
LA Lakers Adjust -0.13
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Pau Gasol 3.41 0.24 -0.25 -0.14 1.27 2.04 1.81 8.23 97.0% 7.99
Kobe Bryant -0.41 0.57 3.75 0.21 0.03 1.18 0.92 6.13 80.7% 4.95
Ron Artest -0.30 -0.24 -1.36 3.66 0.17 6.73 0.26 8.78 68.5% 6.01
Andrew Bynum -1.09 1.31 -2.26 -2.21 -0.80 2.21 -0.28 -3.24 58.6% -1.90
Derek Fisher -1.09 -0.05 0.62 1.25 -0.80 0.56 -0.28 0.08 58.6% 0.04
Reserves
Lamar Odom 0.13 0.39 -1.02 -2.21 0.69 -7.79 -1.05 -10.99 44.3% -4.87
Shannon Brown -1.09 -0.67 -2.26 -2.21 -0.80 3.42 -1.49 -5.22 36.4% -1.90
Jordan Farmar 0.88 -0.45 -0.03 5.04 -0.80 -3.28 -1.96 -0.73 27.7% -0.20
Sasha Vujacic -1.09 0.14 3.12 -2.21 -0.80 -5.58 -2.53 -9.08 17.2% -1.56
Luke Walton -1.09 -1.41 2.00 -2.21 5.31 -8.35 -2.87 -8.74 10.9% -0.95 |
It is interesting to compare the differences between eWins and the beta SPM. Particularly the Scoring/Turnover portion. Ron Artest and Rasheed Wallace got the most credit in this beta SPM for their scoring because they were very efficient and didn't turn the ball over much. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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It would be more interesting if you were posting cumulative numbers. Single games are kind of momentary. Maybe it's personal preference, but I can hardly wait until players like Ray Allen are out of the negative. It's inconceivable that his contributions are actually less than nothing.
His -.30 eWins/480 Min suggest he was 130% less effective than the average player. This is hard for me to get my head around. Players don't have to be a negative version of themselves to lose by 13 points. Being 80-90% of normal will do that.
After 2 games, about half as many guys will be negative. For a whole series, it's pretty rare to net minus eWins. Orlando (vs Bos) only had Ryan Anderson (11 minutes) below zero.
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | It would be more interesting if you were posting cumulative numbers. Single games are kind of momentary. Maybe it's personal preference, but I can hardly wait until players like Ray Allen are out of the negative. It's inconceivable that his contributions are actually less than nothing.
His -.30 eWins/480 Min suggest he was 130% less effective than the average player. This is hard for me to get my head around. Players don't have to be a negative version of themselves to lose by 13 points. Being 80-90% of normal will do that.
After 2 games, about half as many guys will be negative. For a whole series, it's pretty rare to net minus eWins. Orlando (vs Bos) only had Ryan Anderson (11 minutes) below zero. |
On SPM, by definition at the end of a series the sum will be 0 (as it is for each game). The winning team's total SPM will equal half of the efficiency margin, the lowing team's total SPM will equal minus half of the efficiency margin. Each player is measured against the other players in the game, with the average player in the game/series/league equaling 0. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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So it is. Average is zero, in Plusminusland.
And what is the frame of reference of a player that's, say, half as good as average? As good as 2 avg players? To answer this, we would have a SPM value equivalent to the 'replacement player', no?
Of 9 Celts playing over 2 minutes, 3 were <0 eW; and 3 were < -4.24 SPM -- these 3 were also < -8.5 , so maybe the RP SPM is in that range?
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | So it is. Average is zero, in Plusminusland.
And what is the frame of reference of a player that's, say, half as good as average? As good as 2 avg players? To answer this, we would have a SPM value equivalent to the 'replacement player', no?
Of 9 Celts playing over 2 minutes, 3 were <0 eW; and 3 were < -4.24 SPM -- these 3 were also < -8.5 , so maybe the RP SPM is in that range? |
I generally see replacement level as -3, though in one game (as you noted) the spread is obviously wider. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2010 7:37 am Post subject: |
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Better late than never, the playoff rates for these Finalists (thru round 3) -- | Code: | per36 rates
eW eW/G LAKERS mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
2.90 .181 Bryant,Kobe 40 .581 29.0 5.1 4.7 .9 3.0 .7 2.19
2.57 .161 Gasol,Pau 39 .608 20.4 10.8 2.7 .2 1.8 1.8 1.99
1.19 .074 Bynum,Andrew 24 .584 14.0 12.3 1.0 .5 1.4 2.6 1.47
1.12 .070 Odom,Lamar 30 .514 11.4 11.9 2.2 .8 1.3 1.2 1.13
.38 .024 Artest,Ron 37 .398 9.7 3.9 2.1 1.6 .9 .5 .31
.37 .023 Fisher,Derek 34 .580 12.3 2.7 2.9 1.5 1.8 .1 .33
.24 .015 Farmar,Jordan 13 .611 13.7 3.1 3.3 1.4 1.9 .0 .53
.16 .010 Brown,Shannon 15 .467 11.7 3.3 2.0 1.4 1.8 .8 .32
-.01 -.001 Walton,Luke 6 .427 6.6 3.3 4.4 .5 1.1 .0 -.09
-.01 -.002 Vujacic,Sasha 4 .714 14.1 1.6 .0 .0 2.8 .0 -.24
per36 rates
eW eW/G CELTICS mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
2.58 .152 Rondo,Rajon 41 .522 16.3 5.3 8.4 1.8 2.8 .1 1.76
2.13 .125 Pierce,Paul 38 .585 21.2 6.6 3.2 1.1 2.6 .4 1.56
1.90 .112 Garnett,Kevin 32 .534 17.1 9.9 2.4 1.1 1.3 .7 1.68
1.54 .090 Allen,Ray 38 .603 18.5 3.8 2.8 1.0 1.3 .2 1.14
.60 .035 Davis,Glen 20 .554 14.1 7.8 .7 1.3 1.5 .6 .85
.41 .024 Perkins,Kendrick 26 .523 8.6 10.2 1.3 .7 2.9 2.7 .45
.33 .020 Allen,Tony 17 .569 13.2 4.4 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.0 .55
.32 .019 Wallace,Rasheed 16 .567 14.2 5.4 .4 .9 .7 1.1 .57
.12 .020 Robinson,Nate 5 .475 22.3 3.8 3.3 2.3 .0 1.1 1.97
-.06 -.003 Finley,Michael 6 .514 4.5 3.7 1.1 1.2 .0 .0 -.27
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MPG and eW/G are a bit inconsistent for lesser players who did not appear in certain series.
Eff% are 'reconstituted' from the Eff% of 3 series, not from total pts/attempts. They could be off a bit.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 8:21 am Post subject: |
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LA 1 , Bos 1
98.0 - 96.0 (LA) : Pyth 1.14 - .86 , eWins 1.07 - .93
| Code: | eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.40 Gasol,Pau LA 45 .676 23.7 10.2 2.4 2.8 .8 1.6 3.7 2.18
.33 Bryant,Kobe LA 37 .526 27.4 6.9 5.9 4.5 2.5 4.5 .5 2.18
.25 Rondo,Rajon Bos 41 .438 13.2 8.9 7.7 1.8 .9 2.2 .4 1.46
.17 Bynum,Andrew LA 34 .646 19.5 7.5 .0 4.4 .0 1.6 3.8 1.23
.16 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .688 26.4 1.7 1.0 4.1 .0 2.1 .0 1.07
.15 Pierce,Paul Bos 43 .507 14.4 6.1 3.2 3.4 .4 2.1 1.3 .85
.12 Garnett,Kevin Bos 30 .478 13.1 5.6 4.2 5.0 1.2 .6 .6 1.00
.10 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .800 19.3 11.7 .9 6.7 .0 1.9 1.0 1.37
.10 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 28 .690 16.0 6.6 2.5 4.6 .7 2.0 .0 .86
.07 Fisher,Derek LA 32 .405 7.6 6.7 4.0 3.5 .6 .6 .0 .51
.05 Davis,Glen Bos 19 .314 7.6 10.4 1.8 4.7 1.9 1.9 .9 .63
.04 Robinson,Nate Bos 10 .583 13.7 4.0 6.9 3.6 .0 .0 .0 1.10
.04 Artest,Ron LA 37 .420 9.1 5.1 1.0 4.9 2.0 1.5 .5 .24
.03 Farmar,Jordan LA 13 .500 14.9 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.9 .0 .51
.02 Vujacic,Sasha LA 8 .750 8.6 5.1 6.7 2.2 .0 .0 .0 .77
.01 Odom,Lamar LA 18 .381 6.5 9.8 1.9 9.6 .0 2.9 1.0 .10
.00 Brown,Shannon LA 16 .500 7.9 3.7 1.1 1.1 .0 .0 1.1 .07
-.02 Allen,Tony Bos 15 .375 5.9 .0 1.1 7.1 3.5 2.4 1.2 -.32
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Lakers shooting .536 to Celts' .527, also leading by 3 Reb/G.
Poll reads LA 10, Bos 8. (It was 8-7 starting last night's game.)
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 9:18 am Post subject: |
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SPM evaluation of game 2:
| Code: | Boston Celtics Adjust 1.28
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Ray Allen -0.60 -0.86 -0.91 -2.65 -1.52 9.84 1.23 5.81 90.6% 5.27
Rajon Rondo 1.12 0.71 3.58 1.67 -0.51 -2.36 1.06 6.55 87.4% 5.73
Paul Pierce -0.53 -0.54 -0.22 -0.40 -0.47 -4.33 0.84 -4.39 83.4% -3.66
Kendrick Perkins -0.39 0.35 -0.12 -2.65 -1.52 1.01 -0.09 -2.14 66.2% -1.41
Kevin Garnett -1.14 0.47 2.96 -2.65 -1.52 1.31 -1.01 -0.29 49.4% -0.14
Reserves
Glen Davis 5.39 -0.16 -0.75 2.36 0.85 -10.81 -1.63 -3.47 37.8% -1.31
Rasheed Wallace 0.17 2.25 -0.88 -2.65 -1.52 2.62 -1.64 -0.38 37.7% -0.14
Tony Allen -1.14 -1.36 -0.71 11.85 -1.52 -1.79 -2.28 4.33 26.0% 1.13
Nate Robinson -1.14 -1.36 -2.15 -2.65 -1.52 29.42 -3.01 18.87 12.6% 2.37
Shelden Williams -1.14 1.23 -2.15 -2.65 -1.52 -25.02 -3.21 -33.18 8.8% -2.92
LA Lakers Adjust -1.28
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Pau Gasol 0.56 -0.07 -0.49 -0.40 4.63 9.15 1.06 13.16 87.4% 11.51
Ron Artest 0.02 -0.55 -1.69 1.84 -1.52 -8.91 0.89 -11.20 84.4% -9.45
Andrew Bynum 0.69 -0.52 -2.15 -2.65 6.22 4.85 0.72 5.88 81.3% 4.78
Derek Fisher -0.45 0.53 0.10 -2.65 -1.52 -3.44 0.23 -8.48 72.2% -6.13
Kobe Bryant -1.14 0.23 2.41 7.88 -1.52 -4.62 0.19 2.16 71.5% 1.54
Reserves
Shannon Brown -1.14 0.08 -0.96 -2.65 1.34 -1.51 -1.98 -8.10 31.4% -2.54
Lamar Odom -1.14 2.36 -0.80 -2.65 -1.52 -3.38 -2.03 -10.44 30.5% -3.18
Jordan Farmar -1.14 -1.36 -0.13 4.43 -1.52 -5.10 -2.23 -8.33 26.8% -2.23
Sasha Vujacic 2.26 -1.36 1.03 -2.65 -1.52 11.95 -2.90 5.53 14.5% 0.81 |
Gasol and Bynum dominated, but Artest and Fisher were awful. For Boston, Allen and Rondo did very well (though in different ways). |
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Manchvegasbob
Joined: 03 Aug 2008
Posts: 52
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| Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | LA 1 , Bos 1
98.0 - 96.0 (LA) : Pyth 1.14 - .86 , eWins 1.07 - .93
| Code: | eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.40 Gasol,Pau LA 45 .676 23.7 10.2 2.4 2.8 .8 1.6 3.7 2.18
.33 Bryant,Kobe LA 37 .526 27.4 6.9 5.9 4.5 2.5 4.5 .5 2.18
.25 Rondo,Rajon Bos 41 .438 13.2 8.9 7.7 1.8 .9 2.2 .4 1.46
.17 Bynum,Andrew LA 34 .646 19.5 7.5 .0 4.4 .0 1.6 3.8 1.23
.16 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .688 26.4 1.7 1.0 4.1 .0 2.1 .0 1.07
.15 Pierce,Paul Bos 43 .507 14.4 6.1 3.2 3.4 .4 2.1 1.3 .85
.12 Garnett,Kevin Bos 30 .478 13.1 5.6 4.2 5.0 1.2 .6 .6 1.00
.10 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .800 19.3 11.7 .9 6.7 .0 1.9 1.0 1.37
.10 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 28 .690 16.0 6.6 2.5 4.6 .7 2.0 .0 .86
.07 Fisher,Derek LA 32 .405 7.6 6.7 4.0 3.5 .6 .6 .0 .51
.05 Davis,Glen Bos 19 .314 7.6 10.4 1.8 4.7 1.9 1.9 .9 .63
.04 Robinson,Nate Bos 10 .583 13.7 4.0 6.9 3.6 .0 .0 .0 1.10
.04 Artest,Ron LA 37 .420 9.1 5.1 1.0 4.9 2.0 1.5 .5 .24
.03 Farmar,Jordan LA 13 .500 14.9 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.9 .0 .51
.02 Vujacic,Sasha LA 8 .750 8.6 5.1 6.7 2.2 .0 .0 .0 .77
.01 Odom,Lamar LA 18 .381 6.5 9.8 1.9 9.6 .0 2.9 1.0 .10
.00 Brown,Shannon LA 16 .500 7.9 3.7 1.1 1.1 .0 .0 1.1 .07
-.02 Allen,Tony Bos 15 .375 5.9 .0 1.1 7.1 3.5 2.4 1.2 -.32
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Lakers shooting .536 to Celts' .527, also leading by 3 Reb/G.
Poll reads LA 10, Bos 8. (It was 8-7 starting last night's game.) |
Do you think that the presence 8 Celtics in the top 12 has neutralized the dominance of Gasol and Bryant who are at the top of the eWin heap?
Clearly the Celtics bench has been outplaying the Lakers . . . |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:07 pm Post subject: |
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Not quite. Top 2 Celts, Rondo and Ray, are barely = Gasol.
Their next 4, Pierce, KG, Sheed, and Perk (total .47) are not quite = Kobe + Bynum (.50) .
Pierce and Garnett are clearly due to check in. Who for the Lakers is overdue? -- Odom, of course.
Pretty sure Artest will not do anything splendid.
_________________
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36% of all statistics are wrong |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3613
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:55 am Post subject: |
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LA 2 , Bos 1
95.7 - 92.0 : Pyth 1.88 - 1.12 , eWins 1.69 - 1.31
| Code: | eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.59 Bryant,Kobe LA 39 .491 26.8 6.8 5.0 3.4 2.2 3.1 1.2 2.43
.57 Gasol,Pau LA 43 .616 20.2 10.5 2.8 2.5 .6 1.4 3.1 2.13
.36 Rondo,Rajon Bos 41 .443 12.2 6.8 7.2 2.3 1.2 1.5 .3 1.38
.31 Garnett,Kevin Bos 30 .573 20.8 6.2 3.8 5.2 .8 1.6 .8 1.61
.25 Bynum,Andrew LA 32 .580 16.6 9.7 .0 3.8 .0 1.5 3.1 1.26
.22 Pierce,Paul Bos 40 .521 15.3 5.0 2.9 3.9 .3 1.5 .9 .87
.15 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 26 .610 13.5 10.4 2.2 4.3 .5 2.4 .0 .92
.13 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .600 12.1 10.4 2.4 6.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.14
.10 Fisher,Derek LA 35 .477 10.8 5.3 2.8 3.9 .4 1.1 .0 .45
.08 Davis,Glen Bos 20 .460 12.9 8.1 1.1 4.5 1.1 2.8 .6 .60
.07 Odom,Lamar LA 21 .625 12.5 8.8 1.6 7.6 .0 2.2 .5 .55
.07 Robinson,Nate Bos 8 .600 17.9 3.0 5.2 4.1 .0 .0 .0 1.27
.05 Farmar,Jordan LA 11 .500 14.9 4.8 3.1 2.1 2.1 4.1 .0 .66
.04 Vujacic,Sasha LA 5 .833 14.4 4.9 6.3 2.1 .0 .0 .0 1.30
.04 Allen,Ray Bos 38 .500 14.4 2.5 1.2 3.2 .0 1.9 .0 .16
.02 Artest,Ron LA 32 .397 7.8 5.2 1.1 4.5 1.5 1.5 .8 .11
.00 Allen,Tony Bos 16 .500 9.2 1.5 1.3 4.9 2.1 1.4 .7 .02
.00 Walton,Luke LA 6 1.00 5.7 4.4 3.8 5.7 .0 1.9 1.9 .00
-.00 Brown,Shannon LA 16 .545 7.9 3.3 .7 1.4 .0 .0 .7 -.03
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_________________
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36% of all statistics are wrong |
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DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
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| Posted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:20 am Post subject: |
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Beta SPM single game analysis:
| Code: | Boston Celtics Adjust -0.31
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Rajon Rondo -0.99 -0.62 2.79 3.40 -0.65 0.51 1.20 5.34 88.5% 4.73
Ray Allen -0.40 -0.61 -0.86 -1.26 -0.65 -13.42 1.16 -16.35 87.8% -14.36
Paul Pierce -0.99 -0.76 -0.30 -1.26 -0.65 4.27 0.24 0.24 70.7% 0.17
Kevin Garnett 0.59 0.04 2.15 -1.26 0.45 7.41 -0.01 9.06 66.1% 5.99
Kendrick Perkins 4.74 1.81 -0.82 -1.26 -0.65 -5.40 -1.15 -3.05 45.2% -1.38
Reserves
Glen Davis -0.99 0.05 -1.82 -1.26 -0.65 2.23 -0.92 -3.67 49.4% -1.81
Tony Allen -0.99 -0.26 -0.51 -1.26 -0.65 6.09 -1.35 0.75 41.5% 0.31
Rasheed Wallace -0.99 1.08 1.70 9.61 1.20 -6.13 -1.49 4.67 38.9% 1.82
Nate Robinson -0.99 -1.44 -1.82 -1.26 -0.65 11.81 -2.96 2.39 11.9% 0.28
LA Lakers Adjust 0.31
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Kobe Bryant 0.16 -0.10 0.98 3.40 1.73 -1.01 1.36 6.81 91.4% 6.22
Derek Fisher -0.99 -0.58 -1.19 -1.26 -0.65 1.27 1.01 -2.07 85.0% -1.76
Pau Gasol 0.30 0.97 0.75 -1.26 1.11 -0.44 0.80 2.54 81.2% 2.06
Andrew Bynum 3.29 0.57 -1.82 -1.26 0.54 -2.20 -0.30 -0.89 60.8% -0.54
Ron Artest 0.07 -0.44 -0.89 -1.26 0.85 -5.32 -0.96 -7.65 48.6% -3.72
Reserves
Lamar Odom -0.09 0.24 -0.82 -1.26 -0.65 9.04 -0.45 6.31 58.0% 3.66
Shannon Brown -0.99 -0.69 -1.82 -1.26 -0.65 3.84 -1.85 -3.11 32.3% -1.00
Luke Walton -0.99 0.35 -0.08 -1.26 -0.65 3.71 -2.12 -0.73 27.3% -0.20
Jordan Farmar -0.99 1.90 1.82 -1.26 -0.65 -6.74 -2.81 -8.41 14.7% -1.23
Sasha Vujacic -0.99 -1.44 -1.82 -1.26 -0.65 125.43 -3.57 116.01 0.7% 0.77 |
Kobe was good, Ray Allen was very bad. That about sums up this game! Odom played well, also. KG and Rondo did well, but couldn't make up for Ray. |
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