APBRmetrics

Crow · Joined: 20 Jan 2009 Posts: 816

Useful presentation and follow-up.

Throw in this season's current estimates and PG has a 40% advantage over SF for most cumulative eWins impact.

Is that because of

1) the weight given assists
2) the amount of positional turnover / opportunity to play
3) the handcheck rule making it easier to play this position effectively, earlier than before?
4) a tendency to code combo guards as PGs
5) other things?

If position coding is an issue perhaps SF is getting the benefit of doubt and SG is the victim? Or maybe not. Are tweener C/PFs tending to get coded PF? Not simple to interpret the "positional" totals.

'09 Centers contributing more than '04-07 combined. (with '09 being the end of the season date on Mike's chart in his previous post)

'09 Centers + Power Forwards quite high combined compared to the other 6 seasons.

'04-05 the wings were strong but they've been down since.

Every position as taken a turn as most productive during the timespan except SG with a second place finish. PG has 4 wins in 7 years though.

Center position has had least initial impact 4 times, SG twice, SF once. Never PG or PF.

I guess you could look closer and who made choices from the less productive columns in these years and think about whether they went with "need" over "best player available" and who they should have taken if they went BPA.

In knocking the top of this draft class in comparison to last draft class I probably didn't give last draft class as much credit as I should have. The depth of this draft class may end up better than average.

If the next draft class (summer 2010) is to explore the bottom the reference low is the class of 2006 (who played thru spring of 07 and are labeled as 07 on this chart).

It would be a different chart but how would the earlier draft classes look after say their year 3 on cumulative eWins?

Mike G · Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:25 pm Post subject:

Bigs take longer to develop, according to the CW.
Good idea to look at multi-year totals.

If memory serves, PG's tend to play more minutes, not just as rookies. So my particular source of designation (dougstats) may be a bit off. That's one reason I sometimes list names next to the position line. If anyone 'knows better', then good.
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36% of all statistics are wrong

Crow · Joined: 20 Jan 2009 Posts: 816

dougstats has a decent positional list. I wasn't so much mounting a major objection as suggesting an interpretation caution.

(I compiled a position list here
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2061&highlight=position
Overkill for this issue though.)

Mike G · Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:02 pm Post subject:

Despite Jennings' free-fall, rookies now projecting to 78 eWins -

DSMok1 · Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:58 pm Post subject:

Mike G · Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 5:22 pm Post subject:

Evans has played 36 min/G, and Harden just 20. The projection to the full season assumes they play the same minutes and the same fraction of games. Per minute, they're equal (T).

You can't create wins unless you are on the floor.

Minutes played would be nice to display in these posts. But I'd have to jettison something else, to fit a line on the screen. Since G and MPG are readily available elsewhere, I leave them out.
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36% of all statistics are wrong

Mike G · Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:15 pm Post subject:

Mike G · Posted: Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:12 pm Post subject:

Rookies' progress, through 1/4 of the season:

Crow · Joined: 20 Jan 2009 Posts: 816

So Hansbrough has, surprisingly given the FG%, crept up a bit to 6th best on T-rate. Hadn't heard a single word about him in the national media, til BP had an article today. Probably best for him to work things out further first.

I haven't heard much press for Thornton. Have heard a bit about Collison. Pretty good draft I guess, now that Bower is using them.

Curry near the bottom by T rate.

Mike G · Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:44 am Post subject:

Darren Collison has interesting splits, averaging 12 minutes off the bench and 31 mpg while (for 8 G) replacing Paul. Of all PG with as many minutes, he's 22nd in T Rate, 31st among all guards in PER.

So he may well be the best backup PG in the league; on perhaps half the teams he'd be a credible starter; and on some teams, he might be their best guard. But he's now back to 10-15 mpg.

Tyler Hansbrough missed the first 4 games, and only last night got more than 20 minutes in an appearance. He's a close 2nd to Granger in shot attempts per minute, and dead last in eFG% (Pacers.)
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36% of all statistics are wrong

Mike G · Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2009 5:55 pm Post subject:

With the season 31% complete, decidedly a 2-man race.

Mike G · Posted: Fri Dec 25, 2009 7:44 pm Post subject:

Mike G · Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2010 6:05 pm Post subject:

Mike G · Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 4:23 pm Post subject:

Ranked by equivalent wins added, when projected over the full season.

Mike G · Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2010 5:55 pm Post subject:

Not sure how to present this most clearly. Having eWins more-or-less consistently derived back to 2000-01, I've sorted players by their year of entry (back that far) and totaled their eW each season.