APBRmetrics

[AtlBo]

Without interrupting the flow of information here, I would like to gather some opinions on a simple statistical breakdown and player production model I have developed for a points based NBA Fantasy league I have been running. In no way does this have anything to do with metrics, but I have found that it has helped me keep up with the game so much better.

First, here are the stat modifiers for calculating points:

Stat Modifiers: MIN (1), FGM (2), FTM (1), 3PTM (2), PTS (1), OREB (2), DREB (1), AST (1), ST (1), BLK (1), TO (-1)

Here is a sample of the data as it appears in my spreadsheets:

1 PB Rank Player O-Rank Rank GP MIN FGM FTM 3PTM PTS OREB DREB AST ST BLK TO PBP PBPPM SUPERPOWER PTS
52 51 Mehmet Okur (Uta - PF C) 45 36 72 2411 431 273 90 1225 124 433 120 54 53 132 5727 2.37536292 13603.70344
53 52 Eric Gordon (LAC - SG SF) 198 48 78 2677 411 299 131 1252 45 156 215 78 35 164 5722 2.137467314 12230.58797
54 53 Nene Hilario (Den - PF C) 97 22 77 2512 428 266 1 1123 183 415 108 95 101 147 5697 2.267914013 12920.30613
55 54 Rajon Rondo (Bos - PG) 89 50 80 2644 383 172 15 953 100 316 659 149 11 209 5691 2.152420575 12249.42549
56 55 Steve Nash (Pho - PG) 18 29 74 2484 428 196 108 1160 19 204 717 55 10 248 5688 2.289855072 13024.69565

This sample is for the 51-55 ranked players. Typically I leave the spreadsheets sorted on the SUPERPOWER PTS column, although the rankings are based on POWERBALL Points (annual aggregate). This sample is sorted by POWERBALL Points (annual aggregate). SUPERPOWER POINTS are a player's annual POWERBALL Points times his POWERBALL Points Per Minute (PBPPM) for the year.

There are some milestones in the Fantasy game that make it a very interesting way to keep up with the game. 100,000 annual points for a POWERBALL Team Manager in a year is sort of the ultimate prize. Also, 1000 team points in a day is a great feat. No NBA player has reached 10,000 POWERBALL points in a year, but 9,000 has been reached a few times since I've been keeping the data (2006-07).

If you're looking for a fun way to keep up with the NBA, please feel free to give this points format a go at Yahoo! or anywhere where points based leagues can be started. If you start one at Yahoo!, please use a name other than POWERBALL, as the POWERBALL league is going into its 4th year this year by that name. Here are the other league specs in case anyone is interested:

Draft Type: Live Draft
Draft Time:
Max Teams: 20
Scoring Type: Points Only
Max Moves: No maximum
Max Trades: No maximum
Trade Reject Time: 3
Trade End Date: March 8, 2007
Waiver Time: 2 days
Can't Cut List Provider: Yahoo! Sports
Trade Review: Commissioner
Post Draft Players: Follow Waiver Rules
Max Games Played: No maximum
Weekly Deadline: Daily - Tomorrow
Start Scoring on: Monday, Nov 27
Roster Positions: PG, PG, SG, G, SF, SF, PF, F, C, Util, Util, BN, BN, BN,BN, BN
Stat Categories: MIN, FGM, FTM, 3PTM, PTS, OREB, DREB, AST, ST, BLK, TO

Interested to hear any thoughts on this type of breakdown...thanks

[Qscience]

There is someone in this forum that has a section of a website on fantasy basketball.

[Crow]

Most of the values are reasonable though I am puzzled why 3 pointers made are valued at 2, same as "FGM". I assume they aren't counted both places? If they were I could maybe see the 3 point bonus, in line with what statistical +/- shows. As for minutes I can see giving some credit for them but at the same rates as points? I'd personally weight them at .1 - .2.

[AtlBo]

Actually all the stats modifiers are applied exactly as listed. In other words a made three point shot is 7 POWERBALL points, 3PM (2 PBP) + FG (2 PBP) + PTS (3 PBP). A standard basket is 4 points FG (2 PBP) + PTS (2 PBP). It's a Gunslinger mentality of basketball that would seem to favor the 3 points shooters, but it actually does not fully do so.

According to the POWERBALL rankings, 7 of the top 25 made 10 or fewer 3 pointers (%28) last year, 9 of the top 50 (%18), 20/100 (%20), 78/250 (%31.2), 215/442 (%48.64) . The final number is the total from the data for all players and so is not influenced by the POWERBALL rankings.

Upping the maximum number of 3 pointers to 25, changes the numbers significantly. 9/25 (%36) 13/50 (%26) 29/100 (%29) 100/250 (%40) 268/442 (%61).

* Note: The total percentage of center eligibles in the sample is %35, and this would include some players who are also eligible as power forwards or as power forwards and small forwards.

The numbers might still seem to be skewed until one factors in that the total number of Offensive Rebounds last year was 26,870, each valued at 2 points, while the number of 3 point shots made was 16,102 each also valued at 2 points. Each 3 point shot is, of course, counted again as points and as a made field goal, but I view these as natural categories to reward. Why do we go for rebounds? So we can have a chance to score.

Rather than to say that POWERBALL is weighted or biased to the three point shooters, I prefer to say that POWERBALL is weighted heavily to offense and heavily to scoring, which is my belief about how basketball players should be rewarded. The team that scores the most points wins, so the primary value should be on points. Why do the Lakers win so many championships? Because they score alot of points. Defense is a factor, but there is a minimum number of points scored number to look for on the typical championship team. I don't know the average PPG of champions, but I am guessing it's somewhere near 100 or so.

I admit that POWERBALL numbers favor the 3 point shooters some, but I have been amazed at how well the big men (Center eligibles) do in the POWERBALL game. 3 of the top 10 were center eligible last year, including Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, and Pau Gasol. 7 of the top 22 were center eligible. If I factor in the off years of Al Jefferson and Amare Stoudemire, this number would have been higher.

If there is a reflection of a bias toward guards or smaller forwards (3 point shooters) in the POWERBALL numbers, I believe it is most readily reflected in the following fact: center eligibles played %37.75 of the minutes in 2008-09 although comprising only %30.5 of the players, yet were represented in the top 100 only 26 times. I fnd this argument irrelevant from my experience with basketball. Coaches prefer to bring in bigger players as much as possible to use the size advantage gained to wear down opponents and for their defensive abilities. This does not mean that they are particularly productive necessarily, and POWERBALL rewards them for their minutes with a point per minute, anyway. I suppose this fact could actually be used in reverse to show how POWERBALL numbers do reflect accurately NBA productivity across positions, although I find no merit in that argument in my experience with the numbers.

Again, I do believe POWERBALL numbers SLIGHTLY favor the 3 point shooters, primarily guards. However, I do not believe that the SUPERPOWER PTS index is an unfair measure of a player's production as compared to the other players. In short, if I were inclined to believe that the big men carry more of the weight of basketball than is reflected in the POWERBALL numbers, I WOULD make sure that there was not buried somewhere in by belief system the notion that big men aren't producting as they should, right now.

That's my take on POWERBALL

[AtlBo]