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APBRmetrics
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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 Posted: Tue May 12, 2009 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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| jkubatko wrote: | | Mike G wrote: | | Unless the guy is physically incapable of playing serious minutes, there is no obvious reason he shouldn't be a major rebounder, serious shotblocker, and capable scorer. Has anyone found a player who excelled thru 120 minutes and then flopped? I found a whole bunch who didn't. |
Yep, he looks like a legend in the making. |
Why even put a lower limit on minutes played, when it's even more illustrative without one? |
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SGreenwell
Joined: 12 Feb 2005
Posts: 76
Location: Rhode Island
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| Posted: Tue May 12, 2009 1:42 pm Post subject: |
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| gabefarkas wrote: | | jkubatko wrote: | | Mike G wrote: | | Unless the guy is physically incapable of playing serious minutes, there is no obvious reason he shouldn't be a major rebounder, serious shotblocker, and capable scorer. Has anyone found a player who excelled thru 120 minutes and then flopped? I found a whole bunch who didn't. |
Yep, he looks like a legend in the making. |
Why even put a lower limit on minutes played, when it's even more illustrative without one? |
Even these sample sizes seem a bit flukey, though. Only 18 players fit these qualifications in more than 35 years worth of data? It seems the inverse of the lists in baseball that try to prove that Mark Grace was an incredible hitter, because he just happens to have the most hits of any player in the 1990s.
From that list, Jeff Foster turned out pretty decent. Not a star or anything, but a useful rotation guy. Baston has put up OK numbers as well. While the majority of that list is busts or never-was'es, I don't think there are enough players in the sample to say that a player can't be a superstar if he excels in limited minutes his rookie year.
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jkubatko
Joined: 05 Jan 2005
Posts: 702
Location: Columbus, OH
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| Posted: Tue May 12, 2009 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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Because I wanted players with similar production in similar minutes.
| SGreenwell wrote: | Even these sample sizes seem a bit flukey, though. Only 18 players fit these qualifications in more than 35 years worth of data? It seems the inverse of the lists in baseball that try to prove that Mark Grace was an incredible hitter, because he just happens to have the most hits of any player in the 1990s.
From that list, Jeff Foster turned out pretty decent. Not a star or anything, but a useful rotation guy. Baston has put up OK numbers as well. While the majority of that list is busts or never-was'es, I don't think there are enough players in the sample to say that a player can't be a superstar if he excels in limited minutes his rookie year. |
I wouldn't necessarily draw any conclusions from that list. I was just responding to this statement:
| Mike G wrote: | | Has anyone found a player who excelled thru 120 minutes and then flopped? I found a whole bunch who didn't. |
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Justin Kubatko
Basketball-Reference.com |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3621
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Tue May 12, 2009 6:13 pm Post subject: |
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Apparently, a player's first 100-odd minutes predict his future not badly, if they all occur in his first 3-4 games. If that's his whole first season, then we might surmise that his coaches know he isn't ready for prime time, even if he's highly productive in those very limited minutes.
A guy who scores 100 pts in a 120-minute season may be playing exclusively garbage time. He may be a ballhog, or his teammates may be feeding him the ball a lot. In real, competitive minutes, he may prove to be a bust.
A big man, however, who collects plenteous rebounds and blocks, is pretty much getting them on his own. These may be less 'volatile' statistics. As others have noted, there may be some good reason a guy can never go many minutes, that the stats don't indicate.
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Sat May 16, 2009 5:15 pm Post subject: |
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Mike,
While working on something else, I happened to take a closer look at DJ White's 2009 season, and it reminded me of Haddadi, in way. Similar total minutes played, similar age, both rookies, basically identical PER, similar TS%, very similar Usage rate.
White played triple the MPG in a little under half the number of games, while attempting more shots and scoring at a higher rate. Haddadi got to the line much more frequently, rebounded more, blocked more, but also fouled and turned it over at an appreciably higher rate.
So, I'm curious if whatever initially made Haddadi stand out to you as a player of interest also stands out with White? If not, why not, and does anything else jump out at you? |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Sat May 16, 2009 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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Also, I checked to make sure he wasn't only playing garbage time minutes when he put up these numbers, and it looks like he wasn't.
On the other hand, I count maybe 5-6 games that don't look like exclusive garbage time, out of the 19 in which Haddadi appeared. Granted, it's based on looking at those charts for about 30 seconds... |
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CareyScurry
Joined: 29 Jul 2005
Posts: 8
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