 |
APBRmetrics
The statistical revolution will not be televised.
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 274
|
 Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: team strength after (my) adjustments |
 |
|
my method:
whenever a team misses a key player, someone who averaged more than 30 minutes per game this season, i create a new team for that game. I end up with alot of different teams. For everyone of those teams i do my own adjustments for strength of schedule (homecourt advantage+strength of opponent) and i end up with some kind of adjusted differential.
Here's the final list.
TEAM(MISSING PLAYERS) DIFFERENTIAL GAMES
BOS 10.53 65
DET 7.81 65
DAL,Harris 7.4 23
LAL,Gasol 6.82 50
LAL 6.71 27
UTA 6.56 63
SAS 6.22 57
NOH 5.98 66
HOU,Yao 5.88 19
HOU,McGrady 5.49 15
SAS,Parker 5.37 12
HOU 4.61 37
ORL 4.22 81
DAL,Kidd 4.18 37
TOR 4 67
DEN 3.74 64
PHX,Marion 3.34 29
WAS,Arenas 2.38 38
CLE,Wallace 1.83 41
SAC 1.66 14
PHX 1.56 31
SAC,Bibby 1.36 22
GSW 1.27 72
PHI -0.26 82
CHA,Wallace -0.71 20
ATL -1.29 32
CHI,Gooden,Wallace -1.45 13
ATL,Bibby -2.04 46
CHI,Wallace -2.08 17
POR -2.12 68
DAL,Harris,Kidd -2.46 12
IND,Tinsley -2.62 41
SAC,Bibby,Martin -2.71 10
LAC,Brand -2.73 35
IND -2.82 39
MEM -3.63 37
NYK,Marbury -3.73 47
MIN,Telfair -4.12 21
WAS -4.16 11
TOR,Bosh -4.2 15
WAS,Arenas,Butler -4.41 18
NJN,Kidd -5.19 24
MIL -5.51 52
CHI,Gooden -5.55 29
NJN,Harris -5.56 46
DEN,Martin -5.76 10
CHA -5.9 59
MIN -6.16 18
MIA,Marion -6.64 35
SEA -8.26 80
MIN,Foye -8.33 42
MEM,Gasol -9.05 32
NYK -9.57 21
LAC,Thomas,Brand -10.02 13
MEM,Gasol,Miller -10.04 11
MIL,Redd -10.98 10
MIL,Williams -11.54 16
LAC,Kaman,Brand -14.76 13
MIA,Marion,Haslem,Wade -15.03 19
remarks:
-I excluded teams with less than 10 games.
-Bynum and Shaq didn't make the 30 minutes cut
stuff i found interesting:
-Dallas with Kidd is better than i thought
-Houston seems to be best if either McGrady or Yao are injured
-Ben Wallace makes Cleveland (and Chicago) quite bad
-Charlotte without G. Wallace is pretty good
-Marbury makes the Knicks very bad
-Bosh is very important for Toronto
-K.Martin is very important for Denver(!)
I need suggestions for what minutes/game i could use as cutoff instead of 30. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 1527
|
| Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 6:20 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Interesting.
I think 7 0f the top 8 in regular season and playoffs made top 9 on differential despite significant injury so that speaks favorably to their team level strength, coaching, systems and proper depth.
30 minutes is a decent first cut choice. If you want to do something different maybe use min/g * your choice of player rating as the cutoff level to get quality into the equation. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 274
|
| Posted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 2:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
AAAaaaand the same shit done for 06-07.
This time grouped by team.
TEAM(MISSING PLAYERS) DIFFERENTIAL GAMES
ATL -2.35 18
ATL,J. Johnson -5.46 11
ATL,M. Williams,Childress -0.73 10
BOS -6.19 25
BOS,Pierce -6.8 19
CHA -3.4 45
CHA,Okafor -7.41 13
CHA,Wallace -7.94 8
CHI 2.82 63
CLE 2.57 51
CLE,Hughes 2.63 12
DAL 7.56 62
DAL,Howard 5.16 9
DEN,Boykins,A. Miller,K. Martin 3.57 29
DEN,Iverson,K. Martin 2.73 16
DET 4.41 50
DET,Billups -1.55 10
GSW,Jackson,A. Harrington -2.07 11
GSW,Jackson,J. Richardson,A. Harrington -4.82 11
GSW,M. Dunleavy 5.05 15
HOU 6.94 37
HOU,Ming 6.72 25
IND,Jackson,A. Harrington -3.19 23
IND,M. Dunleavy 0.24 26
LAC -0.06 56
LAL -1.22 34
LAL,Odom 1.58 17
LAL,Walton -2.04 14
MEM -5.57 42
MEM,Gasol -2.11 22
MEM,Miller -4.8 9
MIA 2.56 26
MIA,J. Williams -3.08 18
MIA,Wade 0.42 23
MIL,Boykins 0.52 37
MIL,Redd -16.21 9
MIL,Redd,Williams -10.76 8
MIN -3.97 64
NJN -4.19 17
NJN,Krstic -1.32 29
NJN,Krstic,R. Jefferson -0.96 16
NOK,Stojakovic -1.52 28
NOK,Stojakovic,D. West -8.48 12
NYK -1 38
NYK,Q. Richardson -3.94 13
NYK,Q. Richardson,Crawford -3.69 12
ORL -1.55 51
ORL,Hill 4.64 14
PHI,A. Miller -0.6 11
PHI,A. Miller,Iverson -8.01 8
PHI,Iverson -5.44 41
PHX 7.22 52
POR -7.5 36
POR,Roy -6.08 16
SAC -2.28 61
SAC,Artest -0.64 11
SAS 8.48 63
SEA -1.94 28
SEA,R. Allen -5.31 24
SEA,R. Lewis -6.61 20
TOR 2.18 52
TOR,Bosh -7.82 9
UTA 2.01 61
WAS 0.8 46
WAS 0.8 46
WAS,C. Butler -0.64 8
WAS,Jamison -8.83 9
stuff i found interesting:
-At that time it seemed like the Iverson-Miller trade was good for Denver, bad for Philly
-Houston doesn't show a big dropoff without Yao Ming (similar to '0
-Indiana got robbed on their deal with Golden State
-Earl Boykins was horrible for Milwaukee
-Hill was bad for Orlando
-Toronto and Washington would be at the bottom of the league if it weren't for Bosh and Jamison |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 274
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 9:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
i'm finished doing this for all the seasons i could have done it for (big thanks to basketballvalue.com!) and here are *all* the results. Besides the standard regular season i also tried treating the 06-07+07-08 season as one, same for 05-06+06-07.
First line is year,cutoff for minutes, cutoff for games
2005-2006,25,8
ATL -4.54 45
BOS,Banks,Blount,Davis -1.49 24
BOS,Szczerbiak -3.98 12
BOS,Szczerbiak,Banks -1.12 18
CHA -8.87 9
CHA,Bogans,Okafor -3.79 12
CHA,Okafor -8.64 10
CHI 2.86 46
CLE,L.Hughes.,Murray 0.15 17
CLE,L.Hughes 0.49 14
CLE,Murray 6.68 21
DAL,Christie 6.84 21
DAL,Christie,Daniels 7.11 11
DAL,Howard,Christie 2.49 15
DEN,Patterson -5.46 14
DEN,Patterson,Camby 4.99 12
DEN,Patterson,K.Martin 4.38 10
DET 8.68 62
GSW 0.27 39
GSW,B.Davis -3.54 14
HOU,Bogans,Alston 3.95 8
HOU,Bogans,Ming 5.2 9
HOU,McGrady,Wesley -12.5 9
IND,Artest,O'Neal,Tinsley 6.36 11
LAC 1.92 12
LAC,Livingston,Radmanovic 8.06 11
LAC,Maggette,Radmanovic 4.62 20
LAL 4 35
LAL,Brown -0.12 8
LAL,Mihm 2.06 15
MEM 10.99 11
MEM,Stoudamire 4.87 29
MIA 7.11 27
MIA,J.Williams 6.74 8
MIA,S.ONEAL 2.93 10
MIL -1.57 33
MIL,Williams 2.34 12
MIN,Banks,Blount,Davis 0.07 30
MIN,Szczerbiak -2.71 20
NJN 3.85 44
NJN,Collins 3.35 8
NOK -1.78 39
NOK -1.78 39
NYK,Francis,Rose -5.77 17
ORL 1.36 8
ORL,G.,Nelson -2.19 9
ORL,G.Hill -0.45 13
ORL,G.Hill,Francis 1.97 19
PHI -1.63 37
PHI,Dalembert -3.31 11
PHI,Iverson -1.96 8
PHX 4.18 21
PHX,Barbosa 8.77 15
PHX,Thomas 5.22 17
POR,D.Miles -6.51 23
POR,Patterson -7.45 12
SAC,Artest -2.36 13
SAC,Stojakovic 6.31 15
SAC,Stojakovic,Wells 4.7 10
SAS 6.49 43
SAS,Ginobili 1.75 13
SEA -6.41 23
SEA,Murray,Radmanovic 4.31 17
TOR -5.42 37
TOR,Rose 1.23 14
UTA,Boozer -0.98 18
UTA,Giricek -0.7 22
WAS 3.16 49
WAS 3.16 49
2005/06-2006/07,30,10
ATL -5.31 61
ATL,A.Harrington -2.52 30
ATL,Childress,A.Harrington -3.01 15
ATL,Johnson,A.Harrington -8.52 12
BOS,Davis -0.44 47
BOS,Pierce,Davis -7.09 11
BOS,Szczerbiak -1.49 39
BOS,Szczerbiak,Davis -3.31 26
CHA -2.82 43
CHA,Knight -5.42 24
CHA,Okafor -6.26 38
CHA,Wallace -4.7 10
CHA,Wallace,Okafor -11.29 11
CHI,B.Wallace 0.84 70
CHI,Chandler 1.77 69
CLE,L.Hughes 1.12 51
DAL 6.65 111
DAL,Howard 4.22 29
DEN,Camby,Iverson 1.52 24
DEN,Iverson 0 71
DEN,Miller 3.61 30
DET,B.Wallace 6.19 27
DET,B.Wallace,Webber 2.65 21
DET,Webber 6.82 74
GSW,Murphy,Dunleavy 3.88 14
GSW,S.Jackson,A.Harrington -0.61 49
GSW,S.Jackson,B.Davis,A.Harrington -2.65 24
GSW,S.Jackson,Richardson,A.Harrington -5.6 12
HOU 7.66 35
HOU,Battier -1.85 22
HOU,McGrady,Battier -3.54 22
HOU,Ming 6.92 25
HOU,Ming,Battier 1.45 11
IND,Artest,Murphy,Dunleavy,A.Harrington 1.66 10
IND,Artest,Stojakovic,A.,S.Jackson -3.59 28
IND,Artest,Stojakovic,Murphy,Dunleavy 0.72 26
IND,Artest,Stojakovic,Murphy,Dunleavy,A.Harrington -0.21 22
IND,O'Neal,Artest,Murphy,Dunleavy,A.Harrington 1.39 23
IND,Stojakovic,Murphy,Dunleavy,A.Harrington 10.05 14
LAC 2.5 77
LAC,Maggette -1.91 45
LAL 1.7 121
LAL,Odom -2.28 22
MEM 3.71 61
MEM,Battier -4.3 44
MEM,Gasol,Battier -1.95 23
MIA 2.82 82
MIA,J.Williams -2 36
MIA,Wade -1.33 25
MIL -1.74 42
MIL,T.Ford,Redd,Simmons -10.51 12
MIL,T.Ford,Simmons 0.42 42
MIL,Williams -0.76 14
MIN,Davis,M.James 0.43 38
MIN,Szczerbiak -4.14 62
MIN,Szczerbiak,M.James -2.22 30
NJN 0.56 83
NJN,Krstic -1.36 26
NJN,Krstic,R.Jefferson -1.89 18
NOK,Stojakovic -0.43 27
NOK,Stojakovic,Chandler -2.13 58
NOK,Stojakovic,Mason,Chandler -1.43 14
NOK,Stojakovic,West -6.73 12
NYK -3.19 39
NYK,Francis -3.01 58
NYK,Francis,Curry -4.89 11
NYK,Francis,Marbury -9.81 12
ORL,Francis,Stevenson -0.42 52
ORL,G.Hill -3.5 33
ORL,G.Hill,Francis 1.85 24
ORL,G.Hill,Francis,Stevenson 2.23 15
PHI,Miller -1.25 75
PHI,Miller,Iverson -7.31 12
PHI,Webber,Iverson -4.29 35
PHX 5.75 52
PHX,Barbosa,Stoudemire 5.73 27
PHX,Stoudemire 3.92 51
POR,D.Miles -3.34 40
POR,D.Miles,Roy -7.42 52
POR,Roy -9.52 38
SAC,Artest -2.99 28
SAC,B.Miller,Stojakovic -0.38 20
SAC,Stojakovic 0.91 75
SAC,Stojakovic,Artest 1.22 20
SAS 5.96 152
SEA,Allen -5.97 21
SEA,R.Lewis -6.26 22
TOR,M.James 2.67 41
TOR,T.Ford,Bosh,Parker -7.48 11
TOR,T.Ford,Parker -2.89 64
UTA 2.35 84
UTA,Boozer -2.11 42
UTA,Kirilenko,Boozer -6.98 10
WAS 1.01 46
WAS,Jamison -9.74 10
WAS,Stevenson 2.37 69
Indiana with a rating/differential of 10.05(!) before all the trades
2006-2007,30,8
ATL -2.35 18
ATL,J. Johnson -5.46 11
ATL,M. Williams,Childress -0.73 10
BOS -6.19 25
BOS,Pierce -6.8 19
CHA -3.4 45
CHA,Okafor -7.41 13
CHA,Wallace -7.94 8
CHI 2.82 63
CLE 2.57 51
CLE,Hughes 2.63 12
DAL 7.56 62
DAL,Howard 5.16 9
DEN,Boykins,A. Miller,K. Martin 3.57 29
DEN,Iverson,K. Martin 2.73 16
DET 4.41 50
DET,Billups -1.55 10
GSW,Jackson,A. Harrington -2.07 11
GSW,Jackson,J. Richardson,A. Harrington -4.82 11
GSW,M. Dunleavy 5.05 15
HOU 6.94 37
HOU,Ming 6.72 25
IND,Jackson,A. Harrington -3.19 23
IND,M. Dunleavy 0.24 26
LAC -0.06 56
LAL -1.22 34
LAL,Odom 1.58 17
LAL,Walton -2.04 14
MEM -5.57 42
MEM,Gasol -2.11 22
MEM,Miller -4.8 9
MIA 2.56 26
MIA,J. Williams -3.08 18
MIA,Wade 0.42 23
MIL,Boykins 0.52 37
MIL,Redd -16.21 9
MIL,Redd,Williams -10.76 8
MIN -3.97 64
NJN -4.19 17
NJN,Krstic -1.32 29
NJN,Krstic,R. Jefferson -0.96 16
NOK,Stojakovic -1.52 28
NOK,Stojakovic,D. West -8.48 12
NYK -1 38
NYK,Q. Richardson -3.94 13
NYK,Q. Richardson,Crawford -3.69 12
ORL -1.55 51
ORL,Hill 4.64 14
PHI,A. Miller -0.6 11
PHI,A. Miller,Iverson -8.01 8
PHI,Iverson -5.44 41
PHX 7.22 52
POR -7.5 36
POR,Roy -6.08 16
SAC -2.28 61
SAC,Artest -0.64 11
SAS 8.48 63
SEA -1.94 28
SEA,R. Allen -5.31 24
SEA,R. Lewis -6.61 20
TOR 2.18 52
TOR,Bosh -7.82 9
UTA 2.01 61
WAS 0.8 46
WAS 0.8 46
WAS,C. Butler -0.64 8
WAS,Jamison -8.83 9
2006/07-2007/08,30,8
ATL 0.14 29
ATL,Bibby -2.34 37
ATL,Horford,Bibby -1.28 22
ATL,Horford,Bibby,Childress,M. Williams -0.73 10
ATL,Horford,Bibby,J. Johnson -7.48 12
ATL,Horford,Bibby,J. Johnson,Childress -8.7 8
BOS,Garnett,Gomes,Jefferson 6.44 8
BOS,Garnett,W. Allen -5.63 27
BOS,Garnett,W. Allen,Gomes 1.95 9
BOS,Garnett,W. Allen,Pierce -7.3 24
BOS,Gomes,Jefferson 10.02 63
CHA -5.53 52
CHA,G. Wallace -0.48 17
CHA,J. Richardson -3.88 49
CHA,J. Richardson,G. Wallace -7.5 8
CHA,J. Richardson,Okafor -6.99 13
CHI,B. Wallace -4.13 24
CHI,L. Hughes 1.5 96
CHI,L. Hughes,B. Wallace 12.63 9
CHI,L. Hughes,Deng -3.12 9
CLE,B. Wallace 1.77 91
CLE,L. Hughes -0.46 20
CLE,L. Hughes,B. Wallace 0.26 28
DAL 5.61 25
DAL,Jo. Howard,Kidd 6.64 14
DAL,Kidd 6.19 109
DEN,A. Miller 5.59 56
DEN,Martin,A. Miller 1.82 39
DEN,Martin,Anthony,A. Miller -5.81 8
DEN,Martin,Iverson 4.6 19
DET 6.17 110
DET,Billups 1.93 14
DET,Hamilton 3.56 14
DET,R. Wallace 1 9
GSW,Dunleavy 6.04 18
GSW,J. Richardson,Dunleavy 2.55 72
GSW,Jackson 1.46 14
GSW,Jackson,J. Richardson -4.44 13
GSW,Jackson,J. Richardson,Dunleavy -5.43 10
HOU 7.27 73
HOU,McGrady 5.06 21
HOU,Yao 4.48 44
IND,Dunleavy 0.56 29
IND,J. O'Neal,Jackson -2.55 17
IND,J. O'Neal,Jackson,Tinsley -4.11 28
IND,Jackson -2.55 50
IND,Jackson,Tinsley -1.79 21
LAC 1.33 60
LAC,Brand -4.25 52
LAC,Kaman,Brand -3.92 14
LAL 8.68 23
LAL,Gasol 2.85 98
LAL,Odom,Gasol 0.9 29
MEM -4.86 82
MEM,Gasol -3.1 49
MEM,Gasol,M. Miller -10.34 11
MEM,M. Miller -5.51 8
MIA,Marion -6.3 33
MIA,Marion,Haslem,Wade -12.49 22
MIA,Marion,R. Davis 0.11 45
MIA,Marion,Wade -1.12 11
MIA,Marion,Wade,R. Davis -0.72 27
MIL -3.16 42
MIL,M. Williams -11.39 12
MIL,Mason -0.92 54
MIL,Redd,M. Williams,Mason -10.4 9
MIL,Redd,Mason -12.85 17
MIN,Garnett,R. Davis -5.22 81
MIN,Gomes,Jefferson -4.02 69
NJN -3.36 97
NJN,Jefferson -0.53 23
NJN,Kidd -2.54 33
NOK,Stojakovic -0.33 29
NOK,Stojakovic,D. West -10.06 13
NYK -10.96 21
NYK,Curry,Marbury -3.92 8
NYK,Curry,Richardson,Marbury -8.18 8
NYK,Marbury -1.04 26
NYK,Richardson,Crawford,Z. Randolph -5.27 12
NYK,Richardson,Z. Randolph -3.6 13
NYK,Z. Randolph -0.72 41
ORL,Hill 4.81 74
ORL,Hill,R. Lewis 4.82 17
ORL,R. Lewis -0.99 52
ORL,R. Lewis,Turkoglu -3.24 8
PHI,A. Miller -1.81 13
PHI,A. Miller,Iverson -8.33 9
PHI,Iverson -1.91 124
PHX 4.1 27
PHX,Hill 6.32 63
PHX,Marion 4.37 27
POR -5.73 38
POR,Roy -3.3 17
POR,Z. Randolph 0.88 72
POR,Z. Randolph,Roy -4.97 12
SAC -1.38 58
SAC,Artest -0.91 9
SAC,Artest,Bibby -6.82 9
SAC,Artest,Bibby,Martin -3.48 8
SAC,B. Miller -2.59 18
SAC,Bibby 2.24 25
SAC,Bibby,Martin -0.48 11
SAS 7.19 131
SAS,Parker 12.76 14
SEA,Durant -0.25 29
SEA,R. Lewis,Durant -6.4 21
SEA,W. Allen,Durant -5.21 26
SEA,W. Allen,R. Lewis -6.6 55
SEA,W. Allen,R. Lewis,Wilcox -8.09 16
TOR 4.06 117
TOR,Bosh -5.17 25
UTA 4.28 112
UTA,Kirilenko 4.73 16
UTA,Okur 7.79 8
WAS 0.11 59
WAS,Arenas 2.96 44
WAS,J. Butler 1.47 9
WAS,J. Butler,Arenas -5.85 28
WAS,Jamison -8.97 10
Boston: All the lineups where Gomes was missing were positive, even those without Garnett and Allen
Dallas: Kidd, here, looks like a bad fit. That is because Dallas was a much better team in 06-07 than in 07-08, before Kidd came. The '08 numbers say he actually made them better
Gasol with a bad impact for both teams he played for, except when Mike Miller was also injured in 07
Grant Hill likewise
2008,25,8
ATL -0.92 22
ATL,Bibby -1.46 33
BOS 9.59 48
CHA -7.32 31
CHA,McInnis 0.77 8
CHI,B. Wallace -1.02 12
CHI,Gooden,L. Hughes -4.94 25
CLE,B. Wallace,D. West 3.79 18
CLE,L. Hughes,B. Wallace,D. West,Varejao -2.86 8
DAL,D. Harris 7.3 21
DAL,D. Harris,Kidd -2.77 10
DAL,Kidd 5.4 31
DEN 4.99 41
DEN,Carter 1.62 10
DEN,Martin -1.58 8
DET 8.46 48
GSW 4.33 50
HOU 4.97 28
HOU,McGrady 6.93 13
HOU,Yao 6.66 14
IND -2.53 16
IND,J. O'Neal -3.94 9
IND,J. O'Neal,Tinsley -1.39 15
IND,Tinsley 2.2 13
LAC,Brand -1.62 27
LAC,Brand,Thomas -7.66 9
LAL,A. Bynum 7.54 17
LAL,A. Bynum,Gasol 8.39 17
LAL,Gasol 8.23 25
MEM 2.25 14
MEM,Conley -5.35 18
MEM,Gasol -7.66 16
MEM,Gasol,M. Miller -8.97 8
MIA,Marion,Powell -9.21 12
MIL,Mason,Sessions -6.07 10
MIL,Sessions -2.62 29
MIN,Foye -4.29 30
MIN,Telfair -3.62 16
NJN,D. Harris -3.61 32
NJN,Kidd -3.71 14
NOH 5.7 51
NYK -13.44 10
NYK,Marbury -2.31 18
ORL 5.18 47
ORL,Nelson 0.54 10
PHI 0.69 53
PHX,Marion 7.04 20
PHX,S. O'Neal 5.7 19
POR -0.85 47
SAC 1.81 9
SAC,Bibby 3.39 16
SAC,Bibby,Martin -0.46 9
SAS 7.68 47
SAS,Parker 9.58 8
SEA -3.89 19
SEA,D. West -6.31 21
SEA,D. West,Wilcox -4.2 9
TOR 3.36 47
TOR,Bosh -4.81 12
UTA 6.9 46
WAS,Arenas 2.55 27
WAS,J. Butler,Arenas -2.27 15 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 1527
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Most of sample sizes are real small. So it is interesting data that could be quite topical if the absence occurs again for whatever reason but they are generally not statistically significant. Still I like the idea of looking at a team completely without a player to judge impact and really the chain of impacts of moving someone into their minutes & role and down the line.
Perhaps adjusted +/- could be a field and not just a single method.
If the time & curiosity were there it might be interesting to compare the estimated +/- impact of removing a player and substituting for him on paper from standard adjusted +/- with these real world results. Over the entire group do the adjusted +/- estimates of net impact come close on average to the results or not? Substitution assumptions are of course key and sometimes debatable. I don't know how much you, I or anyone would read into any result but I wonder if on average the real game experience of player absence is more, less or about the same as projected. Then you could look at subsets by player type or position or quality level or whatever else. Maybe some further understanding of that universe and the impacts of player change would come from that time spent. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 274
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 07, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I put some more work into this:
- i combined all available seasons
- i added coaches
A while ago I realized "my" rating system is SRS, which basketball-reference also uses. (adjusted for pace, no cutoffs)
A small explanation of what was done here:
If a player, who averages more than 30 minutes a game, misses a game, a "new team" is created. Miami without Wade becomes "MIA-Wade".
All resulting teams are then rated by SRS http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=37
Format: Teamname {Missing players} Coach Rating Games
| Code: |
ATL -A.Harrington-#Woodson# -2.00582126648 32
ATL -Childress-A.Harrington-J.Smith-#Woodson# -0.367599398954 10
ATL -Horford, Al-J.Johnson-M.Bibby-A.Harrington-#Woodson# -6.65558249212 12
ATL -Horford, Al-J.Johnson-M.Bibby-Childress-A.Harrington-#Woodson# -12.2133238352 10
ATL -Horford, Al-M.Bibby-#Woodson# -5.96836118443 66
ATL -Horford, Al-M.Bibby-A.Harrington-#Woodson# -4.57001892354 32
ATL -Horford, Al-M.Bibby-Childress-A.Harrington-M.Williams-#Woodson# -2.56993071221 10
ATL -M.Bibby-A.Harrington-#Woodson# -2.05906625019 41
BOS -A.Jefferson-D.West-R.Davis-#Rivers# 10.195725244 85
BOS -A.Jefferson-R.Davis-R.Allen-Garnett-#Rivers# 1.26883096143 25
BOS -R.Allen-Garnett-#Rivers# -2.01401976682 39
BOS -R.Davis-R.Allen-Garnett-#Rivers# -3.09605503683 51
BOS -R.Davis-R.Allen-Garnett-Pierce-#Rivers# -5.85347875328 23
CHA -#Brown# 1.90130359262 12
CHA -#Vincent# -3.73550252235 59
CHA -G.Wallace-#Vincent# -3.01946802949 20
CHA -J.Richardson-#Bickerstaff# -3.60101145545 73
CHA -J.Richardson-G.Wallace-#Bickerstaff# -3.25956110801 17
CHA -J.Richardson-Okafor-#Bickerstaff# -4.89079824161 50
CHA -J.Richardson-Okafor-G.Wallace-#Bickerstaff# -7.33769629662 18
CHI -Rose, Derrick-B.Wallace-Chandler-#Boylan# -3.66289293863 27
CHI -Rose, Derrick-L.Hughes-B.Wallace-#Skiles# 0.443481785885 72
CHI -Rose, Derrick-L.Hughes-B.Wallace-Chandler-#Skiles# 15.3796201297 10
CHI -Rose, Derrick-L.Hughes-Chandler-#Skiles# 1.79572170671 96
CLE -L.Hughes-#Brown# 13.158881227 19
CLE -M.Williams-B.Wallace-D.West-#Brown# 2.45390573105 138
CLE -M.Williams-L.Hughes-#Brown# 1.22930716668 20
CLE -M.Williams-L.Hughes-B.Wallace-D.West-#Brown# 0.566696917421 68
DAL -#Johnson# 8.34685008218 23
DAL -J.Howard-Kidd-#Johnson# 5.34290752424 36
DAL -Kidd-#Johnson# 6.5561571249 173
DEN -A.Miller-Billups-#Karl# 2.90981342897 106
DEN -Anthony-A.Miller-Billups-#Karl# -0.643421308706 15
DEN -Iverson-A.Miller-Camby-#Karl# 8.31934234155 16
DEN -Iverson-Billups-#Karl# 0.290064736204 77
DEN -Iverson-Billups-Camby-#Karl# 2.1643541295 25
DET -Iverson-B.Wallace-#Saunders# 6.81935750607 34
DET -Iverson-Webber-#Saunders# 7.35155380181 78
DET -Iverson-Webber-B.Wallace-#Saunders# 6.30911616484 89
DET -Iverson-Webber-Billups-B.Wallace-#Saunders# 1.74591052338 11
DET -Iverson-Webber-R.Hamilton-B.Wallace-#Saunders# 2.61214085881 13
DET -Webber-Billups-B.Wallace-#Curry# -0.636108702046 14
GSW -Crawford-Webber-Murphy-Maggette-J.Richardson-M.Dunleavy-#Nelson# 2.6163581652 71
GSW -Crawford-Webber-Murphy-Maggette-M.Dunleavy-#Nelson# 7.25167804457 20
GSW -S.Jackson-Crawford-Webber-Maggette-A.Harrington-#Montgomery# -3.56722532229 15
GSW -S.Jackson-Crawford-Webber-Maggette-A.Harrington-B.Davis-#Montgomery# -2.29871964714 21
GSW -S.Jackson-Crawford-Webber-Maggette-J.Richardson-A.Harrington-#Nelson# -8.25625429268 10
GSW -S.Jackson-Ellis-Crawford-Webber-Maggette-A.Harrington-#Montgomery# 0.0235064519051 32
HOU -S.Francis-Artest-#Adelman# 6.40292129212 31
HOU -S.Francis-Artest-#JeffVGandy# 8.1720813096 41
HOU -S.Francis-Artest-Battier-#JeffVGandy# 1.49490589134 22
HOU -S.Francis-Artest-Battier-McGrady-#JeffVGandy# -4.05782155306 21
HOU -S.Francis-Artest-Battier-Ming-#JeffVGandy# 2.4780911474 11
HOU -S.Francis-Artest-McGrady-#Adelman# 5.24296117416 14
HOU -S.Francis-Artest-Ming-#Adelman# 4.70775835895 19
HOU -S.Francis-Artest-Ming-#JeffVGandy# 4.21875605546 30
HOU -S.Francis-Battier-#Adelman# 7.08730025136 11
IND -Artest-J.O'Neal-T.Ford-Tinsley-Murphy-M.Dunleavy-A.Harrington-#Carlisle# 5.45737539379 15
IND -Artest-T.Ford-Murphy-P.Stojakovic-M.Dunleavy-#Carlisle# 0.1793299814 32
IND -Artest-T.Ford-Murphy-P.Stojakovic-M.Dunleavy-A.Harrington-#Carlisle# -4.87407857532 11
IND -S.Jackson-Artest-J.O'Neal-T.Ford-P.Stojakovic-A.Harrington-#OBrien# 2.27654449323 11
IND -S.Jackson-Artest-J.O'Neal-T.Ford-Tinsley-P.Stojakovic-A.Harrington-#OBrien# -3.33214233634 24
IND -S.Jackson-Artest-J.O'Neal-Tinsley-P.Stojakovic-M.Dunleavy-A.Harrington-#OBrien# 2.43829376119 18
IND -S.Jackson-Artest-T.Ford-P.Stojakovic-A.Harrington-#Carlisle# -3.76169637383 26
IND -S.Jackson-Artest-T.Ford-P.Stojakovic-A.Harrington-#OBrien# -2.65341594615 22
IND -S.Jackson-Artest-T.Ford-Tinsley-P.Stojakovic-A.Harrington-#OBrien# -0.7457246424 16
IND -T.Ford-Murphy-P.Stojakovic-M.Dunleavy-A.Harrington-#Carlisle# 6.14415766259 10
LAC -Camby-Maggette-Z.Randolph-R.Davis-S.Parker-B.Davis-#Dunleavy# -0.557726919313 50
LAC -Camby-Z.Randolph-R.Davis-S.Parker-B.Davis-#Dunleavy# 1.96939880604 93
LAC -Camby-Z.Randolph-R.Davis-S.Parker-Brand-B.Davis-#Dunleavy# -4.46467554165 47
LAL -Gasol-#Jackson# 1.77748893338 130
LAL -Gasol-Odom-#Jackson# -2.08055716365 27
LAL -Gasol-S.Parker-#Jackson# 5.45969056271 50
LAL -S.Parker-#Jackson# 10.8879800377 45
MEM -M.Miller-Gasol-Battier-#Iavaroni# -3.38427662591 19
MEM -M.Miller-Mayo, O.J.-Gasol-Battier-#Iavaroni# -12.6333577047 11
MEM -Mayo, O.J.-Battier-#Barone# -5.71268397028 39
MEM -Mayo, O.J.-Battier-#Iavaroni# -2.7492220657 37
MEM -Mayo, O.J.-Gasol-Battier-#Fratello# -1.93876176856 22
MEM -Mayo, O.J.-Gasol-Battier-#Iavaroni# -5.73471951524 32
MEM -Mayo, O.J.-Gay, Rudy-#Fratello# 4.00908274929 71
MIA -Chalmers, Mario-J.Williams-Marion-R.Davis-S.Parker-#Riley# -1.50271314952 25
MIA -Chalmers, Mario-Marion-R.Davis-S.Parker-#Riley# 3.48826547086 54
MIA -Chalmers, Mario-Marion-R.Davis-S.Parker-#Rothstein# -0.62360559479 14
MIA -Chalmers, Mario-Marion-R.Davis-S.Parker-#StanVGandy# 2.909576012 17
MIA -Chalmers, Mario-Marion-S.Parker-#Rothstein# -7.39518107649 25
MIA -Haslem-Wade-Chalmers, Mario-Marion-S.Parker-#Rothstein# -11.0848517596 11
MIA -J.Williams-R.Davis-S.Parker-#Spoelstra# 5.9026388299 16
MIA -Wade-Chalmers, Mario-Marion-R.Davis-S.Parker-#Rothstein# 1.37912973236 25
MIL -M.Williams-Mason-R.Jefferson-#Scotts# -2.64020360922 21
MIL -M.Williams-T.Ford-R.Jefferson-#Krystkowiak# -9.45065109006 12
MIL -M.Williams-T.Ford-Redd-Mason-#Skiles# 3.66795566789 12
MIL -Mason-R.Jefferson-#Scotts# -2.48442925724 49
MIL -T.Ford-Mason-R.Jefferson-#Krystkowiak# -3.73501475091 14
MIL -T.Ford-Mason-R.Jefferson-#Scotts# 0.573829123487 51
MIL -T.Ford-R.Jefferson-#Krystkowiak# -4.13227779981 40
MIL -T.Ford-Redd-Mason-R.Jefferson-#Scotts# -8.88878870155 11
MIN -Garnett-R.Davis-#Wittman# -2.10265820316 17
MIN -M.Miller-A.Jefferson-#Casey# -1.4723858282 75
MIN -M.Miller-A.Jefferson-#Wittman# -5.83171192677 37
MIN -M.Miller-A.Jefferson-R.Davis-#Casey# 0.287520001688 40
MIN -M.Miller-Garnett-R.Davis-#Wittman# -6.95023285437 83
NJN -#Frank# -0.516552725031 176
NJN -Kidd-#Frank# -4.79595898633 30
NJN -Kidd-R.Jefferson-#Frank# -2.44315644363 21
NJN -R.Jefferson-#Frank# -2.29865934443 28
NOH -D.West-P.Stojakovic-#Scott# -8.95271554612 13
NOH -D.West-P.Stojakovic-Paul-#Scott# -7.41946455456 10
NOH -Mason-#Scott# 5.82648182557 78
NOH -P.Stojakovic-#Scott# -0.261051832771 31
NOH -P.Stojakovic-Chandler-#Scott# -2.6919581736 61
NOH -P.Stojakovic-Chandler-Mason-#Scott# 1.58485478235 16
NYK -A.Harrington-Z.Randolph-#Brown# -7.7107540523 17
NYK -A.Harrington-Z.Randolph-#Thomas# -2.64092350434 26
NYK -Crawford-A.Harrington-Z.Randolph-#Thomas# -3.55859163468 12
NYK -S.Francis-A.Harrington-#Thomas# -11.0656365392 21
NYK -S.Francis-A.Harrington-Z.Randolph-#Brown# -7.04105493251 41
NYK -S.Francis-A.Harrington-Z.Randolph-#Thomas# -1.11492146148 34
NYK -S.Francis-Marbury-A.Harrington-#DAntoni# 1.25377319398 10
NYK -S.Francis-Marbury-A.Harrington-#Thomas# -3.35053639222 47
NYK -S.Francis-Marbury-A.Harrington-Z.Randolph-#Brown# -7.67884392714 14
NYK -S.Francis-Marbury-A.Harrington-Z.Randolph-#Thomas# -9.60299635869 10
OKC -Durant, Kevin-D.West-Mason-#Hill# -0.639933363798 78
OKC -Durant, Kevin-D.West-Mason-#Weiss# -4.35386128665 30
OKC -Durant, Kevin-D.West-Mason-R.Lewis-#Hill# -5.18897977107 25
OKC -R.Allen-D.West-Mason-R.Lewis-#Carlesimo# -8.21451761697 50
OKC -R.Allen-Durant, Kevin-D.West-Mason-#Hill# -5.93083382703 30
OKC -R.Allen-Mason-R.Lewis-#Carlesimo# -6.76587667272 33
ORL -G.Hill-R.Lewis-#Hill# -3.4661355121 32
ORL -R.Lewis-#Hill# -2.18620536127 14
ORL -S.Francis-G.Hill-R.Lewis-#Hill# 0.562214792947 26
ORL -S.Francis-Stevenson-G.Hill-#StanVGandy# 5.63645449752 100
ORL -S.Francis-Stevenson-G.Hill-R.Lewis-#Hill# 4.85431773914 16
ORL -S.Francis-Stevenson-R.Lewis-#Hill# -0.689445917313 57
PHI -Brand-A.Miller-#Cheeks# -2.78037766719 63
PHI -Dalembert-Brand-A.Miller-#Cheeks# -1.01718738828 15
PHI -Iverson-Brand-A.Miller-#Cheeks# -8.36725929621 12
PHI -Iverson-Webber-#Cheeks# 1.06897920609 19
PHI -Iverson-Webber-Brand-#Cheeks# -1.26211862034 131
PHX -#DAntoni# 4.14665225507 31
PHX -G.Hill-#DAntoni# 6.98796342717 75
PHX -Marion-#DAntoni# 4.07771789478 29
PHX -Marion-#Porter# 3.60605263114 17
PHX -Stoudemire-G.Hill-#DAntoni# 5.98364155098 73
POR -D.Miles-#McMillan# -4.58154012389 48
POR -Roy, Brandon-#McMillan# -11.0435234487 37
POR -Roy, Brandon-D.Miles-#McMillan# -6.48060573426 57
POR -Roy, Brandon-Z.Randolph-D.Miles-#McMillan# -6.88103589622 18
POR -Z.Randolph-D.Miles-#McMillan# 1.02734343562 103
SAC -Artest-#Adelman# -3.46694764268 26
SAC -Artest-P.Stojakovic-#Adelman# 0.740218906656 11
SAC -Artest-P.Stojakovic-#Musselman# -0.434334884822 10
SAC -B.Miller-P.Stojakovic-#Musselman# -0.415736167406 17
SAC -M.Bibby-Artest-B.Miller-P.Stojakovic-#Theus# -5.48560391933 10
SAC -M.Bibby-Artest-P.Stojakovic-#Theus# -5.21746280447 13
SAC -M.Bibby-K.Martin-Artest-P.Stojakovic-#Theus# -5.28850940873 20
SAC -M.Bibby-K.Martin-P.Stojakovic-#Theus# -2.00919226194 10
SAC -M.Bibby-P.Stojakovic-#Theus# 2.03990172744 30
SAC -P.Stojakovic-#Adelman# 5.91732033633 32
SAC -P.Stojakovic-#Musselman# -2.29347941342 51
SAC -P.Stojakovic-#Theus# 1.8899605509 14
SAS -#Popovich# 6.83524213026 229
SAS -T.Parker-#Popovich# 9.86087060251 25
TOR -Bosh-J.O'Neal-#Mitchell# -4.7197294795 25
TOR -J.O'Neal-#Mitchell# 3.01047068209 92
TOR -T.Ford-#Mitchell# 1.92870051168 14
TOR -T.Ford-Bosh-J.O'Neal-Parker, Anthony-#Mitchell# -8.62846521553 12
TOR -T.Ford-J.O'Neal-#Mitchell# 4.20055239279 38
TOR -T.Ford-J.O'Neal-Parker, Anthony-#Mitchell# -2.59475644579 70
UTA -#Sloan# 3.56957398987 153
UTA -Boozer-#Sloan# -1.18566034238 47
UTA -Kirilenko-#Sloan# 2.92745861004 23
UTA -Kirilenko-Boozer-#Sloan# -8.13201137989 12
UTA -Okur-#Sloan# 6.35128058332 11
WAS -#Jordan# 0.211798725653 65
WAS -Arenas-#Jordan# 0.665270018632 56
WAS -Arenas-C.Butler-#Jordan# -5.76884884869 30
WAS -Jamison-#Jordan# -8.4802986057 10
WAS -Stevenson-#Jordan# 1.42705668541 73
|
coming up:
-Some important players, like Ginobili, didn't make the 30min cutoff, i'm probably going to add a number of selected players
If you have special requests for certain players, different minute cutoffs or single seasons, feel free to ask |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 274
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 28, 2008 5:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
Here's an update with stuff from this season that i found interesting.
The player-and-coach configuration which these teams currently play with are marked with (*)
| Code: |
TOR -T.Ford-M.James-#Mitchell# 2.06 12
TOR -T.Ford-M.James-#Triano# -0.86 11 *
|
SRS doesn't like Toronto's coaching change much
| Code: |
OKC -R.Allen-R.Lewis-#Brooks# -3.56 15 *
|
So far this OKC team under Brooks looks like the best OKC team after they lost both Allen and Lewis
| Code: |
NOH -M.James-#Scott# 5.32 65
NOH -P.Stojakovic-M.James-#Scott# 0.19 40 *
|
Stojakovic seems to be very important for them, probably because they don't go very deep at SG/SF. Their last two heavy losses were without him, too
| Code: |
MIL -Salmons-Simmons-M.Williams-T.Ford-#Skiles# 9.92 13 *
MIL -Salmons-Simmons-M.Williams-T.Ford-Redd-#Skiles# 3.08 12
|
Best Bucks teams by a huge margin. 9.92 is Celtics territory!
| Code: |
MIA -S.O'Neal-#Spoelstra# 3.58 24 *
|
MIA's overall SRS for this season gets badly hurt by blowout losses to the Blazers and Grizzlies. The first one was without Marion, the latter without Haslem. Depth is a huge problem.
| Code: |
LAL -#Jackson# 11.26 28 *
CLE -L.Hughes-#Brown# 14.76 26 *
BOS -A.Jefferson-#Rivers# 10.13 87 *
|
Cleveland looks best of the three, this is no real news though
| Code: |
LAC -C.Wilcox-Maggette-Kaman-Brand-#Dunleavy# 4.03 12 *
|
The Clippers with Randolph appear to be respectable
| Code: |
DET -Billups-B.Wallace-McDyess-#Curry# 0.26 15 *
|
..worst Pistons team in my dataset
| Code: |
ATL -Childress-A.Harrington-#Woodson# 8.99 14 *
ATL -Childress-A.Harrington-J.Smith-#Woodson# 0.06 10
|
Smith has missed some games this year. They seem really strong when everybody is healthy
| Code: |
ORL -#StanVGandy# 9.67625845968 15 *
|
Orlando also looks really strong
edited due to some errors
Last edited by back2newbelf on Thu Jan 01, 2009 1:25 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 274
|
| Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2009 1:24 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Due to some errors on my part there was a weird effect in SRS which made teams from this season stronger in comparison to teams from past seasons.
Due to this, i have to take some of the statements back:
- the Spurs, Suns, even when healthy, are not as good as in prior seasons.
- Philly with Brand looks worse compared to last year without
- This years Denver team is not the best in my dataset, but close
Sorry for that.
This season:
| Code: | CLE 11.51 -R.Murray-L.Hughes-Snow-Gooden-#Brown#
BOS 11.43 -Szczerbiak-A.Jefferson-Gomes-D.West-R.Davis-M.Blount-#Rivers#
ORL 8.2 -S.Francis-Battie-Stevenson-G.Hill-#StanVGandy#
LAL 7.5 -Walton-S.Parker-K.Brown-#Jackson#
ATL 7.03 -A.Johnson-Pachulia-Childress-A.Harrington-#Woodson#
DEN 4.81 -Camby-Iverson-A.Miller-Boykins-Blake-R.Patterson-#Karl#
UTA 3.75 -Boozer-Fisher-Harpring-#Sloan#
DAL 3.26 -D.Harris-M.Daniels-J.Howard-Stackhouse-#Carlisle#
DAL 3 -D.Harris-M.Daniels-Stackhouse-#Carlisle#
SAS 2.81 -#Popovich#
POR 2.18 -Webster-Udoka-Jack-Z.Randolph-D.Miles-#McMillan#
MIL 1.9 -Simmons-M.Williams-T.Ford-Redd-Magloire-Boykins-R.Patterson-Mason-#Skiles#
IND 1.53 -S.Jackson-Artest-J.O'Neal-Tinsley-P.Stojakovic-M.Dunleavy-A.Harrington-F.Jones-#OBrien#
CHI 0.92 -B.Wallace-Hinrich-Duhon-#DNegro#
MIA 0.76 -S.O'Neal-E.Jones-Payton-J.Williams-R.Davis-Powell,Kasib-Posey-#Spoelstra#
PHX 0.73 -Marion-J.Richardson-#Porter#
LAC 0.5 -Hart-V.Radmanovic-Maggette-T.Thomas-Kaman-Cassell-Brand-Livingston-Mobley-#Dunleavy#
NOH -0.19 -D.Brown-Claxton-P.Brown-Mason-#Scott#
TOR -0.69 -M.James-Garbajosa,Jorge-T.Ford-Peterson-Villanueva-#Mitchell#
PHI -0.9 -Iverson-Korver-Webber-#Cheeks#
ATL -0.93 -A.Johnson-Pachulia-Childress-A.Harrington-J.Smith-#Woodson#
DET -2.48 -Webber-Billups-B.Wallace-McDyess-#Curry#
NJN -2.77 -Kidd-R.Jefferson-Krstic-#Frank#
CHA -2.77 -Diaw-R.Bell-Morrison,Adam-Brezec-Knight-J.Jones-#Brown#
NYK -3.19 -S.Francis-A.Harrington-J.Rose-Marbury-Curry-#DAntoni#
MIN -4.21 -Hassell-Telfair-Szczerbiak-R.Davis-Banks-M.Blount-Garnett-Jaric-#Wittman#
OKC -6.06 -R.Allen-Ridnour-R.Lewis-#Brooks#
MEM -6.19 -E.Jones-Stoudamire-Battier-M.Miller-Gasol-C.Atkins-#Iavaroni#
TOR -8.22 -M.James-Garbajosa,Jorge-T.Ford-Peterson-Villanueva-#Triano#
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
