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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 209
Location: Basketball Research
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 Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 10:05 am Post subject: Haralabos Voulgaris talks on us |
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Courtesy of True Hoop
He is talking on us:
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Do you ever talk shop with other basketball stat experts?
I don't really talk shop with other stat experts, to be honest I don't really know of any. There are a bunch of people who post on the Sonics Central APBR board whose opinion I respect. But I am kind of of the opinion that anyone devoting all this time to the study of basketball and not willing to really profit from it, is fooling themselves in some way.
I remember reading a post on the board where a poster stated that he could predict games with 60% accuracy against the vegas line, but he was not interested in doing so. If this guy could win even at a 56% clip over a significant sample, he could make a few million in a few years, and probably retire in five years. I tend to question the sanity or honesty of a person making such a claim.
As I mentioned, there are a few people who's work and opinion I respect, I have even reached out to a few of them with job offers, but I haven't really found anyone who I'd either be interested in hiring, or who'd be interested in working for me. I'd also add that anyone who feels that they can beat the sport from a predictive angle is also willing to come work for me and make a few million.
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I think this guy has mentioned me too. Again, I have no interest in betting on anything. I haven't calculated my prediction model's overall success rate against Vegas lines. One thing I know from one my reader's e-mail is my model has gone 63% in March, and 62.7% in April against the Vegas' point totals. I adviced my reader not to bet on NBA games by looking at my score predictions because I know betting is a foolish event even if you're using the world's greatest scientific prediction model ever.
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Ryan J. Parker
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 711
Location: Raleigh, NC
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I know betting is a foolish event even if you're using the world's greatest scientific prediction model ever |
This is an inaccurate statement. Voulgaris is correct in his statement. He is what the sports betting community would consider a sharp.
Unless you've ever tried to make money betting sports, then quite honestly you're not really in a position to make claims about the subject. There are a lot of misconceptions and misunderstandings about the subject that are probably better left to another forum.
Regardless, I would say that a majority of the quantitative analysis used in the sports community (or in any business) is a form of betting, although it would more likely be called investing instead. Buying stocks are a gamble, yet you always hear people talk about investing instead of gambling. There really is no distinction between the two.
Think of it like this: If you create a model to forecast how a player would perform on your team and then you determine it to be profitable to sign or make a deal for this player, then obviously you are betting on him (or should I say investing in him) to perform. This really isn't much different from the perspective of someone that bets on sports. |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 209
Location: Basketball Research
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 12:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Ryan J. Parker wrote: | | Quote: | | I know betting is a foolish event even if you're using the world's greatest scientific prediction model ever |
This is an inaccurate statement. Voulgaris is correct in his statement. He is what the sports betting community would consider a sharp.
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Is it the way of admitting that APBR people should bet on NBA games? maybe do it for a living like Voulgaris does?
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Ryan J. Parker
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 711
Location: Raleigh, NC
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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| hoopseng wrote: | | Is it the way of admitting that APBR people should bet on NBA games? |
Please clarify something for me: what you mean when you say "admitting"?
I just want to backup what Voulgaris is saying. He's not a nut job. There is a lot of money that can be made in the sports betting market if you have the skills.
I find it extremely unlikely that anyone will ever stumble upon on a method to forecast games at a 60% clip against the point spread without actually building a model for this express purpose. In fact, that is an unrealistic winning percentage thanks to the numerous amount of numerical analysis already being done by people like Voulgaris.
People that nonchalantly say they can forecast at a 60% rate but choose not to bet don't realize that they really can't forecast at a 60% rate. |
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KeeneKaufmanWheeler
Joined: 02 Aug 2006
Posts: 72
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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Actually, I think he might be talking about something I posted, but is misquoting me.
In another thread that someone had started asking if anyone mkaes money by betting their stat models, I made a tounge-in-cheek comment that I backtested my model for about a season and it "worked" 53% of the time.
That was one of the only threads I've ever seen on this board about betting (and I kind of prefer it that way).
Obviously, my point was that even though it had a winning record, betting it would not have worked at all, and I said so at the time. I don't beleive that any systematic statistical model could be applied to NBA games and win over the long haul.
One of my favorite futures markets analysts, Dennis Gartman, says this about systematic trading: "Systems work great, until they don't."
The same thing will happen to anyone who tries to gamble based on stats analysis, and over the long run it will happen to this guy too.
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Last edited by KeeneKaufmanWheeler on Sat Jun 14, 2008 1:16 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 209
Location: Basketball Research
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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"There are a bunch of people who post on the Sonics Central APBR board whose opinion I respect. But I am kind of of the opinion that anyone devoting all this time to the study of basketball and not willing to really profit from it, is fooling themselves in some way. "
My point is this. Do APBR people really fool themselves by not choosing to bet on NBA?
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MattB
Joined: 22 Jun 2006
Posts: 38
Location: Lowell
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 1:30 pm Post subject: hmm |
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So glad you picked up on this piece. I've been discussing it with friends for a while now.
Haralabos seems a bit cocky, but judging by his track record he appears to be able to back it up.
The most interesting part is his comment on other basketball stat heads. Is it foolish not to bet on basketball if you have what you think is a working system? Is there such thing as a system that is a guarantee?
At the end of the article he says it's not really gambling since he has a such a large edge. Is he overstating the worth of statistics in general as used as a predictor in sports? |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 209
Location: Basketball Research
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 1:37 pm Post subject: |
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And no words in the interview about what his record against the Vegas is?
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Ryan J. Parker
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 711
Location: Raleigh, NC
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| KeeneKaufmanWheeler wrote: | | The same thing will happen to anyone who tries to gamble based on stats analysis, and over the long run it will happen to this guy too. |
This is not true. Voulgaris clearly understands the game the way most people that work for NBA teams do. I suspect that most people that "build models" do not have the background to do so properly or they gloss over important details of the game. Based on the articles, Voulgaris methods do not suffer from these problems.
Academia is filled with people that can build models to "understand" the game. Problem is, it has no real application for an actual team. See the Wages of Wins as an example.
| hoopseng wrote: | | My point is this. Do APBR people really fool themselves by not choosing to bet on NBA? |
No, (in general) APBR people do not fool themselves. I do, however, agree with what he is trying to say. When he talks about people fooling themselves, I believe he speaks about people that a) believe you can't win money betting the NBA without "inside information" or b) believe they can win at a high rate yet choose not to do so. You can absolutely make money betting the NBA without inside information. If you could win at such a high rate against the NBA point spread and totals markets then you'd be doing so. The only people qualified to say they could but choose not to are doing quantitative analysis for an NBA team or in some other field that is rewarding to them (either financially, mentally, or both). Amateur researches do not fit this mold. These amateurs are just that--fooling themselves with these statements.
I have no doubt that there are some people that post on this message board that could bet the NBA and win a tidy sum. I suspect, however, that 99% of those people are working for an NBA team. If you're looking to bet you're likely posting at another board. If you're looking to use and progress your skills for actual application in the NBA then you're posting here. |
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KeeneKaufmanWheeler
Joined: 02 Aug 2006
Posts: 72
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="Ryan J. ParkerThis is not true. Voulgaris clearly understands the game the way most people that work for NBA teams do. I suspect that most people that "build models" do not have the background to do so properly or they gloss over important details of the game. Based on the articles, Voulgaris methods do not suffer from these problems.[/quote]
Based on what evidence? An article in which he says he has the midas touch? If I say that I am a billionaire would you believe me?
I've been around a lot of traders and gamblers, and Voulgaris' claims aren't any different from any number of stories I've heard from any number of other people. And you'd be surprised how often those guys get wiped out in a heartbeat and/or were never as successful as they claimed.
Here's an interesting book: "Education of a Speculator", by Victor Niederhoffer. It's all about his God-like approach to trading. But be sure to get the second edition, printed after his fund blew up and lost anywhere from $1-$3 billion in one day (they never did figure out how much he actually lost).
It's amazing how much people can think they "know" when they are just getting lucky all along.
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Ryan J. Parker
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 711
Location: Raleigh, NC
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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There is a small chance Voulgaris is making everything up, but I find it highly unlikely. Sure one article doesn't prove anything, but clearly he understands how to beat the game.
Any form of investment has risk involved. As long as Voulgaris (or any gambler for that matter) has an edge and understands the Kelly criterion, then they will never lose all of their money. They can get lucky and win a ton, or they can get unlucky and lose a little.
As for "blowing up", if you're putting yourself at risk to "blow up", then you're clearly not managing your risk properly and were lucky to be where you were at.
In fact, this is probably a great time to suggest you read the books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan if you have not done so already. |
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haralabob
Joined: 11 Apr 2007
Posts: 25
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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Hoopseng is accurate in that I was referring to the post he linked.
I liken his post to saying that he could earn 65% but choose not to, similarly to someone that claims they could cross the street and be handed a million dollars. I find this type of high minded virtue something that I am lacking. I don't think that betting on the the nba is something to be ashamed of nor something that is wrong.
In my opinion, there is no difference between investing in sports betting and investing in the stock market. I do however respect the opinions of those who disagree with me on these points.
Make no mistake if you could truly hit even 58% against a consensus line, you could easily make millions within a few years. This is not conjecture, but it is fact, in addition if you bet within a bankroll, using kelly or some other management technique your risk of ruin would be fairly small.
I'd also like to add that I feel Hoopseng is accurate in that I don't think this board should be cluttered with discussions on sports betting. I'll respond to this post but I respect the integrity of what you people are trying to accomplish here in regards to the study of basketball metrics.
If anyone has any other questions for me i'd be happy to respond to them, either here or privately.
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HoopStudies
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 705
Location: Near Philadelphia, PA
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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I have been asked a few times to work on sports gambling. My rationale in NOT doing so is this: You can work in basketball trying to win a championship, then you can do other things afterwards, like work for the league, work for the media, or work on sports gambling. If you work for the league or work for the media, it is harder to get to work for a team than going the other way. If you work on sports gambling, it is very difficult to subsequently work for a team (especially in wake of the Donaghy thing). So working for a team now reflects (in part) my desire to keep flexibility in job choice.
Further, I don't KNOW that what I do can win against the line. I think it would, but I have never spent the time validating it for that purpose.
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Dean Oliver
Author, Basketball on Paper
The postings are my own & don't necess represent positions, strategies or opinions of employers. |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 209
Location: Basketball Research
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| haralabob wrote: | Hoopseng is accurate in that I was referring to the post he linked.
I liken his post to saying that he could earn 65% but choose not to, similarly to someone that claims they could cross the street and be handed a million dollars. I find this type of high minded virtue something that I am lacking. I don't think that betting on the the nba is something to be ashamed of nor something that is wrong.
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Betting is not type of a thing to be ashamed, I respect the industry, especially bookmakers for the sharp lines, and amount of money flying around. If any of the rosters here bet on NBA, I never raise an objection to that.
Mr. Voulgaris, I wonder, how do you feel when Sasha Vujacic nails a meaningless three and ruin your highly educated bets? I don't mean your system does not make sense in the long term but aren't these unpredictable side of sports as well as referee behaviors? That's why I personally think that betting is a foolish event. You would never feel safe about where your money is going to go to.
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Ben
Joined: 13 Jan 2005
Posts: 266
Location: Iowa City
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Maybe I need to reread the thread, but hoopseng, are you simultaneously arguing that you can beat the spread 60% of the time and that nobody can consistently win money betting sports? |
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