APBRmetrics

[94by50]

What do Loss Shares tell us?

[jkubatko]

[94by50]

Then I suppose here's the follow-up: do either Win Shares or Loss Shares mean anything without the other?

[jkubatko]

[94by50]

Okay. I ask this mainly because of one player: Dwyane Wade. What do we say about a player whose WS-LS data runs 41-5 one year, to 25-6, to 6-24? Absent any other data, it looks like one of the best players in the league becomes one of the worst within two years.

[jkubatko]

[Ed Küpfer]

Wade: Start with the fact that his team has 11 wins and 47 losses. Let us spread those wins and losses among the Miami players. How do we do that? We know that Miami's offense has gone through X_off possessions this season, and we know that their defense has gone through the same number, X_def = X_off. Therefore 11 wins + 47 losses = X_off + X_def possessions. We know that Wade has used x_wade.off possessions on offense, and we can estimate that his opposing matchup has used up x_wade.def. So Wade's contribution to Miami's output this season is

(x_wade.off + x_wade.def)/(X_off + X_def) = something like 10%.

(I'm making up numbers, but they should be in the ballpark.)

10% of 58 Miami games is 5.8 -- that is Wade's "player games".

From another calcuation, we know that his offensive rating is 103, and his defensive rating is 109. That gives us a Pythagorean win% = 31%, which, multiplied by 5.8 gives us 1.8 - 4.0 win-loss record for Wade.

Wait -- that wasn't your question. You were asking about Loss Shares. I'm not sure, but I assume those are the same as the win-loss things above some replacement level.
_________________
ed

[94by50]

[Mike G]

Another question the interested fan may ask: Does Wade's play help make the Heat bad, or does the team help bring down Wade's individual numbers?

Here are the Miami WS-LS 'leaders' :

[94by50]

[jemagee]

Wade is still injured and shouldn't be playing and probably is suffering from a little motivational issue with the team stinking to high heaven and trading away shaq.

Shutting him down is probably the best move the heat could make, especially with the fact that wade won't be resting much this summer

[gabefarkas]

[94by50]

[Mountain]

D. Wade's loss share change is the product of a double whammy- the decline in his marginal offense and the change in marginal defense reflecting the sharp drop from 8th best team defensive efficiency to 26th.

It is probably fairly rare to see either change so much in one season and very rare to see both change that much.

In baseball I assume the defensive component of James' Win Shares is based on personal stats and is not generic to the team as a whole as the case with basketball given the predominant view of defense being regularly and more heavily a team product and the lack of acceptable FG defense data? And is the spread between good and bad defense for fielders also smaller and less volatile at individual level in baseball than at team level in basketball? These factors give me the impression that player Shares will be more volatile in basketball than baseball (at least for fielders).

[94by50]