APBRmetrics

[rlee]

A Revolutionary Spirit in a Risk-Averse Mind
By HOWARD BECK
NYTimes


Daryl Morey has charts and spreadsheets and clever formulas for evaluating basketball players, and a degree from M.I.T. to make sense of it all. He may explain this mathematical wizardry, except that every few minutes his train of logical thought is interrupted by impulsive exclamations.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/sports/basketball/28morey.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=sports&pagewanted=print

[deepak_e]

" Whatever revelations Morey has found for assessing players, they remain proprietary for now. But at the team level, he said, there are four statistics that are now widely accepted as indicative of a team’s success rate: “effective” field-goal percentage (a combination of 2-point and 3-point percentages), rebounding and turnover rates (which determine how many more possessions a team gets), and free-throw edge (in attempts, not percentage)."

[Mountain]

For all the fanfare and changes, in terms of basic 4 factor pattern for season as a whole, Rockets are basically the same type team as last season with some modest slippage- they are still equal or better to the average of last season's top 8 playoff teams on 1 in 4 offensive factors and 3 in 4 defensive factors.

Things have gone better for Houston in last month in W-L due to strong offensive rebounding and reducing opponent 3 ptrs by about 1 a game. Landry looks promising, Brooks had a nice earlier run though he has cooled of late. It is fair to expect a new coach will take some time.

The guard cast assembled didnt and still doesn't impress me. They are breaking even on counterpart points but inefficiently, requiring almost 5 more shots to do so. Yao and McGrady have gotten 3 less shots a game than last season, something precipitated by the usage driven Guards. Still a chance I suppose Francis could come on as a factor later in season or playoffs but the first stint was quite weak.

I mentioned before that Scola's total pricetag all things considered wasn't cheap. But 21 minutes 8 pts 5 rebs and good defense and the ability to do more if needed is probably enough return to make that acceptable. Especially in light of Mutumbo's dry dock regular season.

Will be interesting to see where the season ends up.

[deepak_e]

Both Mike James and Steve Francis, the two most talked about acquisitions after Scola, have played very poorly for the Rockets. Francis may be done, period ... after a couple decent games his knee problems made him a non-factor. James had a couple promising games early in the season, but his shot has been erratic and his defense has been sloppy. And compared to Alston, he does a very poor job getting the team into their offense. Neither are in the rotation right now.

The Rockets are very high on the three rookies, though. Scola was predictably shaky early on, but overall he's been a solid rotation player. Brooks and Landry have given the Rockets something they haven't had in a while. Like most rookies they have had their difficulties on the defensive end, but Brooks is as quick a player with the ball as there is in the league, and Landry has been a very strong rebounder and finisher around the basket.

[Mountain]

Yao's injury will probably give the season an incomplete but last 6 weeks show the Rockets in best light.

They were pretty good coming into season and are pretty good still. The slow start has been offset by a very strong middle. Adelman gets a lot of credit for blending players into a team and Morey gets credit for that choice.

James didnt work out but he was rolled over into Jackson and I believe salary reduction limiting or eliminating luxury tax. Scola has moved from pretty good but pretty expensive to a strong success story.

Evaluating Morey's Rockets real early was a reach (and I probably should have waited) but he seemed to call out for critics to be specific. I gave my thoughts at the time. Time has shown Morey made more right calls than wrong and maintained what he inherited and probably has put them on a brighter path for the future.

So I say congrats so far, I'll study what you do with a renewed openness and willingness to credit where credit is due.

But do Rockets get into Finals in next 3 years? Win championship? Fail to get in or out of conference finals? I'll be watching that too.