Well, none of those seem very likely, so I'll cut to the chase. I suspect Ben F. has put 'fouls drawn' in the 'PF' column, since his study is (or started out as) 'offensive efficiency'.
...
(I assumed these aren't just fouls committed by the opposing defense, but all fouls, including offensive?)
Yes, you're right on both counts. I mistakenly attributed fouls to the offense, and forgot to pull out offensive fouls. I'll try and fix both of those later today, as well as provide more stats.
Mike G wrote:
Non-starters (subs) foul at least 50% more than starters do. It's not feasible that starters foul the heck out of every sub that comes in, but take it easy on other starters. The PF numbers make sense only when they are applied to the offense, i.e., the 'team' designated.
...
As subs enter the game, fouls rise. No surprise and no contradiction.
Is it as simple as this then? Subs just foul more? I'll see if I can overlay a graph of average subs in the game by each minute on the fouls/poss by minute and see if the contours are similar. Judging by the earlier results, subs and fouls are obviously correlated, but I wonder which is the cause?
And again, then, either way: why not play players who are good at getting to the line off the bench more? Wouldn't that drastically increase their effectiveness?
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1712 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 9:32 am Post subject:
Ben F. wrote:
.. why not play players who are good at getting to the line off the bench more? Wouldn't that drastically increase their effectiveness?
The other side of the same coin. Subs foul more because (with exceptions) they aren't expected to stay in the game as long. Yet there's more value in drawing fouls on the opponent's starters. So yeah, it's easier to score when coming off the bench (Ben Gordon); but he's not necessarily more 'effective' overall, in that he isn't neutralizing the opponent's main strength -- or not quite as much as the raw numbers suggest. _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
Joined: 31 Dec 2004 Posts: 958 Location: Durham, NC
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 11:14 am Post subject:
I would have thought the opposite. In my mind, a 4x0 situation means it's on the verge of a blowout (by the team with 0 in). So, both teams are less likely to foul; the team with the lead because they are trying to run the clock out, and the team losing because they are trying to claw their way back in it.
Subs foul more because (with exceptions) they aren't expected to stay in the game as long. Yet there's more value in drawing fouls on the opponent's starters. So yeah, it's easier to score when coming off the bench (Ben Gordon); but he's not necessarily more 'effective' overall, in that he isn't neutralizing the opponent's main strength -- or not quite as much as the raw numbers suggest.
This seems to be another study, but I would be interested in trying to evaluate the tradeoffs of a situation like that. It's not so apparent to me that there's a whole lot of value in trying to get a player in foul trouble to get him out of the game. Ed K's study from a couple years ago suggests that even the most foul prone players only lose about 4-6 minutes per game. Meanwhile, in the first 5 minutes of the game there are 15.6 fouls committed every 100 possessions, while in the second quarter the rate is 23.9. That's a 53% increase. I would think the value added to offensive efficiency by that much higher foul rate would be greater than what is gained by the small number of minutes lost due to foul trouble of the other team.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1712 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:16 am Post subject:
A couple of factors that come to mind:
- Refs just let starters get away with more contact; subs get the quick whistle. Whether the players are playing deliberately to foul/not foul, the refs steer them this way.
- Coaches put guys (starters) on the bench with their 2nd foul of the 1st half; replacing them with less-valuable subs.
Knowing that you're well into the 2nd half with several fouls to give, you play with more abandon than you do at the start of the game. This should account for the ever-rising foul rate seen as the game progresses. (I presume blowouts account for slightly fewer fouls in the 4th Q) _________________ 40% of all statistics are wrong.
All times are GMT - 5 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3
Page 3 of 3
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
