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THWilson
Joined: 19 Jul 2005
Posts: 144
Location: phoenix
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 Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Tim Lehrbach wrote: |
No matter when Miles returns or what he's got left, he has to be better than Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw have been for the past two seasons, right? And what of Webster and Outlaw, don't they get a "1.1 multiplier" too? |
I don't think Darius Miles is better than Travis Outlaw. Check the numbers. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1712
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | ...
Last year, the West won 68 games more than the East. Both DW and I have the East cutting that deficit by more than half; John sees it almost disappearing ... |
Last year, the East was 192-260 (.425) vs the West. This year, they're 20-38 (.338) after an 0-5 night. At this rate, the East will wind up 155-295 -- 70 games below .500. On average, then, JohnH's guesses would average 4.7 wins too many, per Eastern team; about 2.3 wins too high for DW's and mine.
According to Sagarin, only Bos and Orl, from the East, are among the top 10 teams. Only Cle, Mil, and Atl have had a top-10-toughest schedule so far.
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40% of all statistics are wrong. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1712
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 6:47 am Post subject: |
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Applying pythagorean expectations to the remainder of the season, teams are on these winning paces (first column; 2nd col is avg of 3 predictions):
| Code: | Pyth Avg. WEST JohnH DW21 MikeG
53.4 61.2 Dal 58* 62.2 63.5
63.4 61.0 SA 59 65.2* 58.8
49.7 57.5 Hou 61 55.2* 56.3
55.8 56.5 Phx 54 56.9* 58.6
59.8 49.8 Uta 50 45.3 54.1*
53.4 46.7 Den 53* 44.4 42.6
51.6 40.5 LAL 43* 40.2 38.2
50.7 40.2 NO 39 40.3 41.4*
39.8 36.7 GS 36 34.4 39.6*
32.2 35.6 Mem 34* 35.2 37.5
17.2 32.3 Sea 35 34.0 27.9*
28.6 31.7 Sac 27* 36.0 32.0
30.1 29.1 LAC 20 33.7 33.6*
21.0 25.0 Min 22* 26.2 26.9
27.2 22.1 Por 26* 21.8 18.6
633.7 total 617 631* 630
The * indicate best guesser.
Pyth Avg. EAST JohnH DW21 MikeG
18.6 55.3 Chi 55 57.7 53.2*
35.8 54.9 Cle 54 57.1 53.5*
68.6 51.7 Bos 51 50.2 54.0*
55.9 48.1 Det 48 48.7* 47.6
61.9 45.3 Orl 49* 45.8 41.0
50.9 41.8 Tor 40 40.0 45.5*
30.0 38.8 Mia 43 37.6 35.9*
25.2 38.7 NJ 39 36.9* 40.1
39.2 37.5 Was 33 39.9 39.5*
24.2 36.0 NY 38 32.7* 37.3
35.6 35.8 Atl 42 33.4* 31.9
30.5 33.0 Cha 34 29.7* 35.3
35.0 30.7 Mil 35* 27.4 29.7
37.3 30.0 Ind 28 32.0* 30.1
30.6 25.5 Phi 21 29.7* 25.7
579.0 total 610 599* 600 |
The Pyth sum to only 40.4 wins per team. Perhaps an artifact of uneven schedules at this time.
John takes the West, DW the East. I'm 'most consistent'.
Cavs are 9-7, but have been outscored by 3 ppg.
No SOS, to date or in future, have been considered.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1712
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 8:31 am Post subject: |
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Ranked by the # of wins that the 3 of us (Avg.) appear to 'off', by conference. The East has the 3 biggest 'gainers' on our prediction, as well as the 4 most disappointing so far. | Code: | WEST Avg. Pyth gain EAST Avg. Pyth gain
LAL 40.5 52.1 11.6 Bos 51.7 72.4 20.7
NO 40.2 49.9 9.7 Orl 45.3 58.6 13.3
GS 36.7 46.3 9.6 Det 48.1 61.3 13.2
Por 22.1 29.0 6.9 Phi 25.5 35.3 9.8
Den 46.7 52.9 6.3 Ind 30.0 38.8 8.8
Uta 49.8 55.6 5.8 Tor 41.8 47.3 5.4
SA 61.0 65.2 4.2 Was 37.5 42.3 4.9
Phx 56.5 57.2 0.7 Atl 35.8 37.5 1.8
Sac 31.7 31.5 -0.2 Mil 30.7 29.0 -1.7
LAC 29.1 28.2 -0.9 Cha 33.0 25.5 -7.5
Mem 35.6 33.0 -2.6 NJ 38.7 26.6 -12.0
Min 25.0 18.3 -6.7 Mia 38.8 25.7 -13.2
Sea 32.3 22.1 -10.2 NY 36.0 20.2 -15.8
Dal 61.2 50.4 -10.8 Cle 54.9 29.2 -25.7
Hou 57.5 44.9 -12.6 Chi 55.3 26.5 -28.8
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The biggest bust in the predictions has been DW's call for 58 wins from the Bulls. DW also has the 2 closest calls: SA (looking like 65) and Phx (57).
All 3 of us are averaging about a 10-win error thus far.
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NickS
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 287
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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Mike G, thanks for keeping this thread updated. Both of the last tables are fun, and I hope you update them again sometime in January.
Interesting, but not surprising, to see that the best guesser is usally the person on the edge of the range. It looks like there are only 8 of 30 teams where the Pyth estimate is within the range established by the 3 estimates. |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 374
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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I posted predictions but it was not system based and it was after the set of methods. I certainly did look at the other methods but I didn't heavily game to be on the edge though I might have reasoned that way to some extent on a few. I gave it brief thought, not exhaustive research & judgment. I didnt use fractions. It is not the same, not claiming it is, but I thought it might be useful to some extent to have such a non-method reference point.
How does it look so far for my predictions (considered in that context)?
My average win error is 8.6. In the west if I counted right I am closest on 5 and tied for closest on 3 more. In the east which I admit to knowing far less about I am closest on just 2. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1712
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 8:48 am Post subject: |
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Mtn, thanks for reminding that you had submitted an entry. The others I had already tabulated and worked from there.
Here, and still a few days out of date, are the Gang of 4 predictors, showing how far off the mark we've been -- if the season goes on as it has -- which is a major caveat, since now Cle has Lebron and Varejao, etc. | Code: | Pyth+ EAST JH DW21 MikeG Mtn John DW21 Mike Mtn
72.4 Bos 51 50.2 54.0 51 -21 -22 -18 -21
58.6 Orl 49 45.8 41.0 40 -10 -13 -18 -19
61.3 Det 48 48.7 47.6 53 -13 -13 -14 -8
38.8 Ind 28 32.0 30.1 28 -11 -7 -9 -11
35.3 Phi 21 29.7 25.7 28 -14 -6 -10 -7
47.3 Tor 40 40.0 45.5 42 -7 -7 -2 -5
42.3 Was 33 39.9 39.5 37 -9 -2 -3 -5
37.5 Atl 42 33.4 31.9 35 4 -4 -6 -3
29.0 Mil 35 27.4 29.7 32 6 -2 1 3
25.5 Cha 34 29.7 35.3 30 8 4 10 4
26.6 NJ 39 36.9 40.1 42 12 10 13 15
25.7 Mia 43 37.6 35.9 40 17 12 10 14
20.2 NY 38 32.7 37.3 42 18 12 17 22
29.2 Cle 54 57.1 53.5 49 25 28 24 20
26.5 Chi 55 57.7 53.2 54 28 31 27 27
EAST average error: 13.7 11.6 12.0 12.4
Pyth+ WEST JH DW21 MikeG Mtn John DW21 Mike Mtn
52.1 LAL 43 40.2 38.2 40 -9 -12 -14 -12
46.3 GS 36 34.4 39.6 39 -10 -12 -7 -7
49.9 NO 39 40.3 41.4 43 -11 -10 -8 -7
29.0 Por 26 21.8 18.6 26 -3 -7 -10 -3
55.6 Uta 50 45.3 54.1 50 -6 -10 -1 -6
52.9 Den 53 44.4 42.6 53 0 -9 -10 0
65.2 SAS 59 65.2 58.8 59 -6 0 -6 -6
57.2 Phx 54 56.9 58.6 57 -3 0 1 0
28.2 LAC 20 33.7 33.6 28 -8 5 5 0
31.5 Sac 27 36.0 32.0 35 -4 5 1 4
33.0 Mem 34 35.2 37.5 34 1 2 4 1
18.3 Min 22 26.2 26.9 23 4 8 9 5
22.1 Sea 35 34.0 27.9 29 13 12 6 7
50.4 Dal 58 62.2 63.5 58 8 12 13 8
44.9 Hou 61 55.2 56.3 53 16 10 11 8
WEST 6.8 7.6 7.2 4.9
- - - - - - - - - - - -
NBA average error: 10.3 9.6 9.6 8.6
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I guess in the previous post I 'ranked' the teams relative to what we (averaged) thought, and in this one we are being ranked. Mtn has the lead, so he's the enemy.
I didn't see this improvement coming for Orlando. Dwight's off the chart, Nelson has jumped his game up. Lewis isn't the reason.
I'm also worst with Det, and several of their guys are doing great off the bench.
And for Atl, it seems Horford is having a bigger impact than all of us ('cept John?) expected.
Out west, I never saw this Bynum event (LAL); and Fish has been great, and Farmar. Por is much less dismal than I expected. In Den, KMart is making a difference, and AI is not dropping off.
I didn't think Minny would be this bad, and what's up in Dallas? I actually ignored indicators that they'd be even better than what I called (63.5).
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40% of all statistics are wrong.
Last edited by Mike G on Tue Jan 01, 2008 7:14 am; edited 1 time in total |
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davis21wylie2121
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 463
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 10:30 am Post subject: |
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| Thanks for putting this together, Mike. This is interesting: I forced the spread of pW% in the league to a weighted average of the previous 3 years' standard deviations in pW%, which in effect compresses the league. In the East, this turned out to be my biggest strength, in the West it's my biggest weakness, suggesting that the distribution of talent out West is much wider than it is in the East. Two direct improvements for next year would be: 1) Force the fit to the standard deviation of winning %, not pW% (since win% is what we're after, I can't figure out why I didn't do this anyway); 2) Maybe break up the deviations by conference (this seems arbitrary to me, though, since theoretically the distribution in the past really shouldn't predict the current year's beyond the individual players themselves, which are already accounted for). Anyway, thanks for the updates! |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 374
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| Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks Mike for the kind inclusion of my list for tracking, despite its different basis & timing.
The method race will be the main story but a set drawing on those different methods and more might add something to the test.
I expected at least half of the teams with big variances from the average of the predictions now will move back a good ways toward it but will study the situation further and perhaps comment more later. |
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John Hollinger
Joined: 14 Feb 2005
Posts: 96
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| Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Nice to see I'm winning the "average error" category. High numbers are good .... um, right? |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1712
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 7:11 am Post subject: |
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Certainly. But I called for Portland to win 18 games, and I've nailed it.
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40% of all statistics are wrong. |
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Tim Lehrbach
Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 34
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| Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 7:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Tim Lehrbach wrote: | | Unless something goes terribly wrong, there is little chance Martell Webster is third on this team in minutes played at the end of the year. |
Whaddya know, Martell Webster is second on the team in minutes played, and the Blazers are 18-13. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1712
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 3:45 am Post subject: |
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Blazers are now the 'most surprising' team, relative to what our experts picked. The Bulls still lead as underachievers.
| Code: | Predicted Wins Difference (Absolute values)
Pyth+ tm JohnH DW21 MikeG Mtn JohnH DW21 MikeG Mtn
72.3 Bos 51 50.2 54.0 51 21.3 22.1 18.3 21.3
65.0 Det 48 48.7 47.6 53 17.0 16.3 17.4 12.0
46.5 Was 33 39.9 39.5 37 13.5 6.6 7.0 9.5
34.4 Phi 21 29.7 25.7 28 13.4 4.7 8.7 6.4
37.9 Ind 28 32.0 30.1 28 9.9 5.9 7.8 9.9
50.7 Orl 49 45.8 41.0 40 1.7 4.9 9.7 10.7
38.0 Atl 42 33.4 31.9 35 4.0 4.6 6.1 3.0
42.9 Tor 40 40.0 45.5 42 2.9 2.9 2.6 .9
27.6 Mil 35 27.4 29.7 32 7.4 .2 2.1 4.4
34.6 NJ 39 36.9 40.1 42 4.4 2.3 5.5 7.4
27.1 Cha 34 29.7 35.3 30 6.9 2.6 8.2 2.9
23.3 Mia 43 37.6 35.9 40 19.7 14.3 12.6 16.7
20.1 NY 38 32.7 37.3 42 17.9 12.6 17.2 21.9
35.9 Cle 54 57.1 53.5 49 18.1 21.2 17.6 13.1
32.1 Chi 55 57.7 53.2 54 22.9 25.6 21.1 21.9
39.2 east 40.7 39.9 40.0 40.2 12.1 9.8 10.8 10.8
Pyth+ tm JohnH DW21 MikeG Mtn JohnH DW21 MikeG Mtn
46.4 Por 26 21.8 18.6 26 20.4 24.6 27.8 20.4
54.9 LAL 43 40.2 38.2 40 11.9 14.7 16.7 14.9
54.0 NO 39 40.3 41.4 43 15.0 13.7 12.6 11.0
45.8 GS 36 34.4 39.6 39 9.8 11.4 6.2 6.8
49.7 Den 53 44.4 42.6 53 3.3 5.3 7.1 3.3
56.5 Phx 54 56.9 58.6 57 2.5 .4 2.1 .5
31.7 Sac 27 36.0 32.0 35 4.7 4.3 .3 3.3
47.1 Uta 50 45.3 54.1 50 2.9 1.8 7.0 2.9
26.3 LAC 20 33.7 33.6 28 6.3 7.4 7.3 1.7
57.4 SAS 59 65.2 58.8 59 1.6 7.8 1.4 1.6
54.2 Dal 58 62.2 63.5 58 3.8 8.0 9.3 3.8
28.3 Mem 34 35.2 37.5 34 5.7 6.9 9.2 5.7
23.2 Sea 35 34.0 27.9 29 11.8 10.8 4.7 5.8
14.6 Min 22 26.2 26.9 23 7.4 11.6 12.3 8.4
42.8 Hou 61 55.2 56.3 53 18.2 12.4 13.5 10.2
42.2 west 41.1 42.1 42.0 41.8 8.3 9.4 9.2 6.7
10.2 9.6 10.0 8.7
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DW leads in the east; Mtn rules the west.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1712
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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Update: I am now leading in both 'best' and 'worst' predictions: closest on 9, worst on 11.
Mtn and John gave the same prediction for 6 teams. Giving them each 1/2 credit for best/worst picks, the standings are:
| Code: | progno: John DW21 Mike Mtn
Best - 5.5 7.0 9.0 8.5
Worst - 10.0 6.5 11.0 2.5
Avg err 9.8 9.5 9.5 8.3 |
These errors are relative to pythagorean extrapolations of remaining games, on top of current W-L.
Everyone's worst picks are underestimating Por and overestimating Chi. Plus JH's picking Mia to win 43.
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40% of all statistics are wrong. |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 374
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| If I had noticed the ties with Hollinger more I would have tried to avoid them. Split credit for ties makes sense. |
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