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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 506
Location: NYC
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 Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 2:30 pm Post subject: Hollinger on LeBron |
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I'm pasting a small section of Mr. Hollinger's latest Insider article here:
| Quote: | | Even now, James is following more in Robertson's footsteps than Jordan's. James is on pace to become just the fifth player in NBA history to average 25 points, seven assists, and seven rebounds in a season. Robertson pulled off that feat six times, while Jordan did it only once. |
Does anyone know who the other two players were?
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Statistics are like a woman's bikini. What it reveals can be fascinating, but what it conceals is ultimately critical! |
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FFSBasketball
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 175
Location: MD
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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Just looked on Bob's database...
In '70-71 and '71-72 John Havlicek did it.
7071: 27.5-8.2-7.5
7172: 28.9-9.0-7.5
In '86-87 Larry Bird did it.
8687: 28.1-9.2-7.6.
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"Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions." - Evan Esar |
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stuart mckibbin
Joined: 13 Jan 2005
Posts: 16
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Let's all have a communal grinding of teeth over Hollinger's use of an arbitrary 25-7-7 bar and not taking into account that rebounds were more plentiful in other eras. |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 506
Location: NYC
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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don't forget the use of per-game numbers...
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Statistics are like a woman's bikini. What it reveals can be fascinating, but what it conceals is ultimately critical! |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 971
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| stuart mckibbin wrote: | | Let's all have a communal grinding of teeth over Hollinger's use of an arbitrary 25-7-7 bar and not taking into account that rebounds were more plentiful in other eras. |
Having accounted for all known rebound, assist, and scoring rates, for all players in all eras, I'd say Lebron's present numbers are pretty elite.
Per-36-minute and relative to 100 pt/ 44 reb games, there are 575 player-seasons with as good or better assist rates than LeBron's 6.88
Of these 575, only 15 were accompanied by more relative rebounds: 7 times by Magic Johnson, twice each by Darrell Walker and Tom Boerwinkle, once each by Oscar, Jordan, Kidd, and Grant Hill.
Of those 15, all of one surpassed Lebron in each area: Michael Jordan's 1988-89 season.
Of course, it favors a chosen player to select exactly his numbers for comparison. Darrell Walker was nobody's idea of a superstar; yet he places himself in elite company by similar queries.
Using a "versatility index" defined as V = sqrt (sco*reb*ast) , Lebron's year ranks #50 alltime; behind 11 of Magic's seasons, 6 by Kareem and Bird, 5 by Karl Malone, 4 by Wilt, 3 by Barkley and Oscar, 2 by Garnett, Hill, Jordan, and Shaq, 1 each by Duncan, McGinnis, Robinson, and Walton.
There's not a fluke or a slacker in that group. All are Hall-o-Famers, except the enigmatic McGinnis. |
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KD
Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 107
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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| stuart mckibbin wrote: | | Let's all have a communal grinding of teeth over Hollinger's use of an arbitrary 25-7-7 bar and not taking into account that rebounds were more plentiful in other eras. |
That's what happens when you have to write more than once a week.
Not saying he's wrong, or that what I've read of his since his move to ESPN (I refuse to pay for Insider) hasn't been great, but you lower your standards a wee bit ... |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 594
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:57 am Post subject: |
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| stuart mckibbin wrote: | | Let's all have a communal grinding of teeth over Hollinger's use of an arbitrary 25-7-7 bar and not taking into account that rebounds were more plentiful in other eras. |
When I first read the intro to this column, I thought John was going to make some era/pace adjustments and compare LeBron's versatility to the Big O's. I think that would be an interesting column if John or someone else who's not covering two teams has time to write it. |
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HoopStudies
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 410
Location: Near Philadelphia, PA
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| Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 1:55 am Post subject: |
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Actually it's Hollinger's award picks that are interesting.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2037752
Joel Przybilla as Most Improved?
The only guy he agrees with anyone on is the one without a lot of numerical ways of evaluating: Coach of the Year. And he still doesn't go with Nate.
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Dean Oliver
Author, Basketball on Paper
http://www.basketballonpaper.com |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 594
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 2:04 am Post subject: |
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In terms of guys who have actually, literally improved, I don't think there's anyone above Przybilla. Did any of us think he was anything but a complete stiff this time last year? Now he looks like Portland's most valuable piece.
Of course, he has zero chance to actually win. ... |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 971
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:09 am Post subject: |
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| admin wrote: | In terms of guys who have actually, literally improved, I don't think there's anyone above Przybilla. Did any of us think he was anything but a complete stiff this time last year? Now he looks like Portland's most valuable piece.
Of course, he has zero chance to actually win. ... |
Aside of 2nd-year players like Lebron, Wade, and Hinrich; and comeback kids McDyess, Nowitzki, Arenas, and Hughes; you have fellow lurkers like Dickau, Simmons, Nailon, and several members of the Bobcats, for consideration.
Then there's Amare; and Gooden, Korver, Jaric....
At the very least, Przybilla is a case study in a guy getting more minutes. Check out his pre- and post-allstar rates (a couple days old now):
period . G Min Eff% Sco. Reb. Ast P.F. Stl T.O. Blk
pre-ASG 46 19 .623 10.0 11.3 1.2 4.8 0.3 1.5 2.1
post-AS: 28 32 .578 11.0 11.6 1.7 4.0 0.6 2.2 3.9
With an additional 1 pt/36, we get .5 ast and .7 TO. And a lower effective shooting. Involving this guy more in the offense is apparently due to shortage of inside options. But his defensive numbers have doubled (per minute!)
Most-Improved never goes to a guy who transforms from terrible-to-serviceable. Nor from near-great to truly-great. Rather, they like guys who change from no-kinda-star to some-kinda-star. Sometimes, this just means getting more minutes (i.e., bigger averages). |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 971
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:34 am Post subject: |
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| admin wrote: |
... I thought John was going to make some era/pace adjustments and compare LeBron's versatility to the Big O's. I think that would be an interesting column ... |
After pace adjustments, it seems Oscar was not the scorer Lebron is. He'd have trouble getting 25 PPG today; conversely, Lebron might get 30-35 back in 1962.
Here are "euclidean similars" for this year's Lebron James, showing closest year only.
diff player . . . . . yr sco reb ast
.00 Lebron James 05 27 7 7
.44 Grant Hill 99 25 8 7
.46 Kobe Bryant 03 29 7 5
.47 Larry Bird 87 28 9 7
.49 Michael Jordan 02 24 6 6
.52 Tracy McGrady 02 25 7 5
.56 Clyde Drexler 92 26 7 6
.59 Anfernee Hardaway 96 25 5 7
.61 Scottie Pippen 96 22 7 6
.65 Oscar Robertson 61 24 7 8
.65 Paul Pierce 03 27 7 5
These are peak seasons for most of these guys. McGrady and Jordan had better years. In fact, that's Jordan's 1st Wizards season listed. |
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bchaikin
Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 423
Location: cleveland, ohio
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| Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:11 am Post subject: |
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Joel Przybilla as Most Improved?
i can see why you might not want to give this award to a player who's going to end up playing well short of 2000 minutes in a season (i probably wouldn't either), but simulation shows that using joel przybilla's 04-05 stats on the 04-05 blazers for 40 min/g at C and the team wins 9-10 more games per average 82 games than if you used his 03-04 stats on the 04-05 blazers for 40 min/g and 82 games at C...
do the same with amare stoudemire (use first his 04-05 stats and then his 03-04 stats on the 04-05 suns) and the improvement is 7-8 wins per average 82 game season, with both bobby simmons on the clippers and tayshaun prince on the pistons it's even less... |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 506
Location: NYC
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| Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 1:50 pm Post subject: |
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how has his PER changed? i'm betting that's what John based it on.
_________________
Statistics are like a woman's bikini. What it reveals can be fascinating, but what it conceals is ultimately critical! |
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