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APBRmetrics
The statistical revolution will not be televised.
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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 Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:16 am Post subject: Current BoP Stats |
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I figure I'll post these Basketball on Paper stats semi-daily until Justin gets his in-season updates together at B-Ref. All raw data is from Dougstats. Each file has 2 sheets, one for players and one for teams. The team sheet has 4 factors for offense & defense, and the final W-L column in the "current" file represents the # of wins they'll finish with if they play to their Pyth% the rest of the way.
Preseason Stats
Thanks again to Dean and Doug for all of their hard work!
Last edited by Neil Paine on Wed Nov 21, 2007 5:32 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:45 am Post subject: |
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Last edited by Neil Paine on Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:05 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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Last edited by Neil Paine on Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:14 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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NickS
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 384
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for posting these.
Out of curiousity, what is the current league average ORtg? It looks like it's a little lower to start the season, but I'm curious if that's actually true. |
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KeeneKaufmanWheeler
Joined: 02 Aug 2006
Posts: 72
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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I am absolutely lovin' this Google Docs beta. It makes it so much easier to make data like this publicly available.
Thanks for posting this. It is very useful. |
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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| NickS wrote: | | Out of curiousity, what is the current league average ORtg? It looks like it's a little lower to start the season, but I'm curious if that's actually true. |
At the bottom of the "Teams" tab, there's a "League Average" line that shows the NBA average pace, 4 factors, and Pts/100 poss. Right now it's at 104.7, which is lower than I expected (we were at 106.5-ish the last few years). I seem to remember it always being lower in November, though -- maybe rust on the players' part? Last year they chalked it up to the new ball. Or maybe I'm just imagining that trend. Either way, it's lower now.
Oh, also: Does anybody know how to preserve the "freeze panes" on a Google doc when you publish it? I had it set in the spreadsheet itself, but it didn't carry over to the published version, and I know it's a pain in the arse to not have the header row for any teams but Atlanta & Boston. Maybe tomorrow I'll just paste the header over every team's statline. Anyway, I'm glad people are enjoying it; for my part, it's really helping me keep up with the entire league better. |
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deepak
Joined: 26 Apr 2006
Posts: 665
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanks for this. Can you explain why Aaron Brooks's Poss is negative? |
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Kevin Pelton
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 979
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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| davis21wylie2121 wrote: | | I seem to remember it always being lower in November, though -- maybe rust on the players' part? Last year they chalked it up to the new ball. Or maybe I'm just imagining that trend. Either way, it's lower now. |
No, you're not imagining it.
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?p=13005 |
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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| deepak_e wrote: | | Can you explain why Aaron Brooks's Poss is negative? |
Wow, that's weird, didn't notice that before. It looks like a quirk of Dean's equations: Brooks has scored 5 points on 2/2 FG (1/1 3P). His "FG Part" for scoring poss = FGM * (1-1/2*((Pts-FT)/(2*FGA))*qAST) = 2*(1-1/2*((5-0)/(2*2))*5.21) = -4.51, and that starts a chain reaction where his PProd and Poss <0. It seems to be an artifact of qAst (the % of FG assisted) being impossibly high -- in real life, no player can have a qAst higher than 100%, but because he's played so few minutes and has 2 FG but no assists himself, Brooks has a qAst of 521%, which throws off all of his numbers. Perhaps I should amend Dean's equation to cap qAst at 100% for any player who posts a raw qAst > 1.0. It's only an issue for a few players (just scanning thru, I see Brooks and Stephen Graham as having >1 qAst and consequently <0 Poss and PProd), so the cap wouldn't skew the sums of team possessions all that much. If he's lurking, I wonder how Dean weighs in on this matter? At any rate, good catch Deepak. Tomorrow I'll put a cap on qAst, unless Dean logs in and posts to the contrary. |
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks, Kevin. I knew I remembered something about league-wide efficiency increasing after the early goings, then dropping, and then going up again after the AS break. |
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supersub15
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 273
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 6:54 am Post subject: |
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| Not sure how relevant this is, but if you substract DRtg from ORtg and sort the list by this differential, 15 of the top 16 teams are the teams in the playoffs now. Is that always the case? |
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HoopStudies
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 705
Location: Near Philadelphia, PA
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 11:23 am Post subject: |
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| davis21wylie2121 wrote: | | deepak_e wrote: | | Can you explain why Aaron Brooks's Poss is negative? |
Wow, that's weird, didn't notice that before. It looks like a quirk of Dean's equations: Brooks has scored 5 points on 2/2 FG (1/1 3P). His "FG Part" for scoring poss = FGM * (1-1/2*((Pts-FT)/(2*FGA))*qAST) = 2*(1-1/2*((5-0)/(2*2))*5.21) = -4.51, and that starts a chain reaction where his PProd and Poss <0. It seems to be an artifact of qAst (the % of FG assisted) being impossibly high -- in real life, no player can have a qAst higher than 100%, but because he's played so few minutes and has 2 FG but no assists himself, Brooks has a qAst of 521%, which throws off all of his numbers. Perhaps I should amend Dean's equation to cap qAst at 100% for any player who posts a raw qAst > 1.0. It's only an issue for a few players (just scanning thru, I see Brooks and Stephen Graham as having >1 qAst and consequently <0 Poss and PProd), so the cap wouldn't skew the sums of team possessions all that much. If he's lurking, I wonder how Dean weighs in on this matter? At any rate, good catch Deepak. Tomorrow I'll put a cap on qAst, unless Dean logs in and posts to the contrary. |
That is what I do -- put a cap on it so that it never goes below 0 or above 1.
_________________
Dean Oliver
Author, Basketball on Paper
The postings are my own & don't necess represent positions, strategies or opinions of employers. |
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:16 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks, Dean, I've updated my spreadsheet to reflect this. Also, I added MRP, the player's Marginal Revenue Product if they play the rest of the season at their current WARP rate (AKA "Fair Salary", under the assumption that players only add value to teams through wins, which is true of the vast majority of players). MRP = $750,000 + ($1,500,000 * WARP), where $750,000 is the average minimum salary and $1,500,000 is the marginal value of an extra win.
Last edited by Neil Paine on Wed Nov 21, 2007 4:41 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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NickS
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 384
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:45 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks again.
The salary column is a surprisingly intuitive way to provide a summary stat for contributions.
Chris Paul and Manu have been playing insanely well. |
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THWilson
Joined: 19 Jul 2005
Posts: 164
Location: phoenix
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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Is there any way to 'freeze panes' (so that the headers stay at the top when I scroll down)? Also, seeing the WARP seperately would be nice.
Thanks! |
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