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deepak_e
Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 344
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:16 pm Post subject: An article on Morey's first offseason as Rockets GM |
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AOL Sports link
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Naturally, because of his assured roster moves, young age and close friendship with Oakland A's mastermind Billy Beane - the subject of the best-selling book "Moneyball" - Morey has quickly earned a reputation as the league's resident wunderkind who relies on objective statistical analysis more than pure basketball intuition. To that end, Morey doesn't deny borrowing from Beane's philosophies, yet he maintains that a good hoops executive can't make decisions based on stats alone.
"I think with every decision, whether it's baseball or basketball, what (Beane) and I and others are trying to find is some level of objective evidence to confirm your beliefs," admits Morey during a telephone interview. "And with each decision, there should be some component of analytical and objective evidence, and some component of more traditional methods.
"In baseball it just turns out that the sport lends itself to those decisions being driven more by objective evidence," continues Morey. "But in basketball, given the high level of interaction between the players and the play - you know, did a guy make the shot because there was a good pick, or because there was bad defense, or because the guy's a good shooter? - it's very hard to isolate those things, so you need to blend (scouts and statistical analysis) a lot more, and traditional scouting is something (the Rockets) value highly."
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I'm curious how the people on this board would assess Morey's moves with the Rockets so far. To sum up:
- It's believed that he was largely behind the Battier trade from a year ago
- Replaced Van Gundy with Rick Adelman
- Acquired Mike James in return for Juwan Howard
- Resigned Bonzi Wells
- Drafted Aaron Brooks with 26th pick
- Acquired Jackie Butler and the rights to Luis Scola for Spanoulis and cash
- Signed Scola to a 9.3 million contract over 3 years
- He signed Steve Francis for MLE (2.4 million)
- He resigned Chuck Hayes to a 4 year, 7-8 million dollar deal (incentive-laden)
- About to resign Mutombo for 1.2 million*
Right now, the Rockets appear to have acquire a lot of talent, fairly cheaply, and they are looking to cut the roster down as much as possible. And it I think that they'll probably have to pay some luxury tax this year.
Should Morey be considered an early favorite for Executive of the Year, if things come together well for the Rockets? The Celtics will probably improve on their win total more than anyone, but I think what the Rockets have done is more impressive. They didn't have a lot to work with heading in to this offseason.
* Fixed
Last edited by deepak_e on Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:00 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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tmansback
Joined: 12 Aug 2005 Posts: 122
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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I think they have done enough that they could be a 60 win team and challenge San Antonio and Dallas for the division. I think getting Adelman was great. There roster seems to fit his style. I think getting Scola was a steal. Hollinger article on how European numbers translate to the NBA make him one of the best pickups this year. I think Mike James fits that system perfectly. He a very similar player to Bobby Jackson and with Tmac doesn't have to handle PG duties. If Tmac and Yao are healthy I can't see a reason why they can't be as good as the Spurs. |
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thref23
Joined: 13 Aug 2007 Posts: 22
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:54 am Post subject: |
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The fact that Juwan Howard won't be playing so much is great for Houston IMO.
The fact that they have added guard depth is good, IMO
Battier was a great pick-up, regardless of who was responsible.
Their defense has been among the top of the league. Rick Adelman, a good offensive coach, is a perfect fit IMO. Their defense will take care of itself.
Thats my take as an outsider |
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John Beattie
Joined: 26 Jan 2007 Posts: 36 Location: NYC
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 267
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Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:05 pm Post subject: |
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I made a post on this thread that later got lost by the system. I'll try to reconstruct.
Francis, James, Scola, Wells and Brooks have offensive talent but will they increase offensive efficiency in their usage over what they replace? I am skeptical on most. If they just replace the shots of Howard and much or all of Alston's there might be some efficency improvement. There isn't a whole lot of shots just laying around to be picked up by these 5 guys, 21 if they take all of Howard's and Alston's, maybe more of the returning bench takes less. If they take shots from Yao, Head or Battier it probably will hurt the team on net efficiency change on those moved shots. If they take shots from McGrady it could be about the same or a move up or down, hard to tell in real interactive world.
Rockets could move up or down a few games regular season. My gut says down might be more likely than up but about the same is the safest bet depending on health. In general I expect some defensive slippage and some offensive improvement eventually if the players listen to and follow Adelman's system. Defensive slippage might exceed offensive improvement not so much because Adelman is that much lesser on leading D than Van Gundy but I suspect there will be some player let up and some transition learning cost. In the end it is about the playoffs and Rockets could well dial it by playoff time. They will be expected to do so. |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 267
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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Other arguments for Rockets possibly slipping regular season include potentially higher turnovers with the added players, Mutumbo decline in minutes and performance, perhaps greater chance of lane clogging if Scola plays with Yao, and greater challenge to be disciplined, together and effective in the clutch with the addition of perimeter players who like to be the man and could cloud the plan oriented previously under Yao and McGrady (or maybe they manage the greater number of weapons/options to improve overall success). |
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deepak_e
Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 344
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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I think slippage in defense is a legitimate concern for the Rockets. But Rick Adelman has, contrary to popular opinion, coached some pretty good defensive teams in Sacramento and Portland. And all the best defenders (both individually and in terms of team defense) will return. I'd be surprised if defense doesn't slip a little, simply because there probably won't be as much of an emphasis on defensive rebounding, but I expect improvements in offense to offset that.
Offensively, I think Adelman's system will minimize the natural tendency of some players on the Rockets (Francis, James, and Wells, in particular) to control the ball. It's a real question mark at this point if Francis and Wells can increase their efficiency with a reduced offensive role. Also, to what extent will having more offensive threats on the floor open up opportunities for Yao and T-Mac to get easy baskets? I think that's the main goal of adding all this offensive talent to the team.
Morey's approach seems to have been to add players who are versatile offensively and can create their own shots. The real work in blending all these talents together into a cohesive unit falls on Rick Adelman. It will be interesting to see how he brings it altogether. |
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John Hollinger
Joined: 14 Feb 2005 Posts: 81
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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I may be biased on this, because I was in the arena for Game 7 when McGrady either scored or assisted on all but **nine** of their baskets, but I thought they were crying out like mad for additional scorers and succeeded wildly. T-Mac is good, but if he's leading the league in Usage Rate something is very wrong. Last year that something was named Rafer. |
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KD
Joined: 30 Jan 2005 Posts: 144
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Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:31 am Post subject: |
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Watch out. He'll stab ya. |
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ziller
Joined: 30 Jun 2005 Posts: 120 Location: Sac Metro
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mateo82
Joined: 06 Aug 2005 Posts: 201
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Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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I don't know about Scola. He has been a very poor rebounder in Europe and I don't see any reason why that won't continue. I don't believe the addition of scoring makes up for the poor rebounding. If they were able to run Hayes at the 3 that might not be as big of a worry. I just don't think you can have a power forward giving you single digits rebound rate and win, regardless of what offense they bring. |
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holymoly
Joined: 30 Jul 2005 Posts: 39
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Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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Scola...Poor Rebounder? really. where did you hear that? Last season he averaged 9.4 Reb per 40mins. _________________ .....
60% of the time, it works every time |
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deepak_e
Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 344
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Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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I'm not sure what Scola's rebound rate has been, but John Hollinger gave the following projections in an ESPN Insider column posted June 29, 2007 (source):
Luis Scola (17.1 pts/40. 10.2 reb/40, 50.4 FG percent, 16.27 PER)
And if his highly touted "intangibles" translate as well, that looks pretty good to me.
I'd be more concerned about his defense than the rebounding. Persistent foul trouble will probably be an issue (for both him and Chuck Hayes). |
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mateo82
Joined: 06 Aug 2005 Posts: 201
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Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:55 pm Post subject: |
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holymoly wrote: | Scola...Poor Rebounder? really. where did you hear that? Last season he averaged 9.4 Reb per 40mins. |
Ok, maybe "very" was too strong of a word, but last year in the NBA 9.6 rebounds per 40 was average for a power forward. I expect more than below average rebounding from a title contender, though. And that's if he can translate the same production. |
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deepak_e
Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 344
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Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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mateo82 wrote: | holymoly wrote: | Scola...Poor Rebounder? really. where did you hear that? Last season he averaged 9.4 Reb per 40mins. |
Ok, maybe "very" was too strong of a word, but last year in the NBA 9.6 rebounds per 40 was average for a power forward. I expect more than below average rebounding from a title contender, though. And that's if he can translate the same production. |
Again, quoting from Hollinger's column:
John Hollinger wrote: |
[Those who make the jump from the Euroleague to the NBA can expect] their rebound rate to increase by 18 percent (there are more missed shots to grab over here); |
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