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[Bullswin12]

Hey, I'm new to the board and I'm really looking for some feedback on some stuff I've done as far as Fantasy Ratings. Last year 82games.com posted my artilce on Z-Ratings for fantasy basketball, but I made a bunch of changes this year to them that I feel make them a lot better. If anyone is interested, the website is 5minuteovertime.net , and any help/comments/criticism would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

-Brandon

[Mountain]

Checked out the site, good luck with it. Looks ready to roll in Chicago Bulls colors. (My only style comment would be that some of the fonts were a little small for me.)

I noticed in your 82games article you say that Wade is "overrated" in fantasy. Under a 10 category system of equal weight he does rank lower than expected, much lower than Kobe Bryant. I know it is an entirely different measuring stick but under PER I noticed Wade was ahead of Bryant. The metric plays a big role in the message.

I also noticed Shawn Marion's well known high fantasy value, no controversy there; but it prompted a stray thought about him. Don't know if he will opt-out next summer but what if the Spurs go after him? They might have enough cap to do so after letting the last hurrah vets walk as expected. Maybe they could fill out deep roster spots on cheap like Celtics are doing, perhaps paying a bit of luxury tax but it would enhance them as favorites for more titles.

In your point differential series I got impression you didnt give a home team advantage? Adding that element gives underdogs a better chance and team volatility in offense and defensive ratings or differential can too.

In your next stars article, your top3 for 2006 draft class makes sense but I am not quite as high on the rest of the names and might expect PER to peak a couple points lower in at least half the cases. In 2005 class, among others, I'm curious about future performance from Villanueva who Colangelo traded early, Frye to see how much of his slump was NY related and McCants who I heard some praise for coming into league but not much since.

Would be interested, at some point, to hear more of your take on the core Bulls players and Skiles and Paxson from watching and/or stat crunching. What is the biggest change do you think we will see next season?

[Bullswin12]

First off, thanks for taking the time to look through all my stuff. Greatly appreciated.

About Wade, I think you make a fair point. Obviously fantasy doesn't account for all those intangibles a guy brings to a court, and I think it's fair to say part of what makes Wade, Wade are some of the things he does that just don't show up in the box score. Things like +/- show that better for sure, so I guess it just depends on what context your looking at through.

Interesting thought with the Matrix going to the Spurs. I wouldn't be surprised if he did opt out, him being constantly frustrated by his feeling that he's overshadowed by Nash and Stoudamire, so it certainly makes things interesting. If I had to guess though, I don't think he'd go to the spurs. The Spurs are methodical as we know and Marion clearly is most effective when he can get out, run and create for himself. If you put him in a slow it down system, I feel like you kill his best assets as a versitile player. Also, the Spurs should witihin the next year or two bring along Tiago Splitter, who's another athletic big, that would bring some youth to that old team. I'd be interested though to hear a case made for how this could work out better.

Like the idea of adding in home/away weights to the point differential series. I'll have to look into that, but you're right, it's not factored into what I worked on.

I'm curious to hear who people think will be the next stars of the 2005 and 2006 draft classes. Obviously I made my calls on the web site but I'm interested to hear what other players people are high on.

Finally, about the baby bulls... This is a tough one for me, and it's hard for me to stay objective. I've become attatched to the guys on the roster. My head tells me trading some of them away for a big time lost post guy could be the world of difference, but I couldn't bear to give up on Deng and Gordon. Drafting Noah and picking up Joe Smith I think strengthens our post weakness. Not significantly, but it's a lot better than the 57 year old PJ Brown. I think they could win a championship with this team, (it's a similiar build to the Detroit Pistons) although I think the rest of the world's non-bulls fans would disagree.

[Mountain]

You are welcome. Hope more folks comment on next gen star topic.

Pace could be a factor in why Marion to Spurs doesnt happen but it might not an immediate circuitbreaker. I think Spurs break a decent amount off the defense and might not be opposed to having a new weapon for that. I wonder if Spurs will play more to Parker's strengths regular season and rest Duncan a little more and return more to their traditional style in playoffs. They try to control fast teams but are built to play with them and still win when they have to. Marion could fit in defensively. But hard to say what he will do / what he is looking for. I don't think Suns will go huge to re-sign him.

Chicago is close to becoming best in east. More post game might improve team FG% and FT rate, needed to go deeper in playoffs. Thomas may be biggest unknown factor in next year's level of success. I didnt see much of him last season. I wasn't surprised Skiles went real slow with him then but wonder if year 2 is still fairly slow or if he gets 25-30 minutes a game? Should be a fun year watching them for you.