APBRmetrics

[basketballvalue]

Hey all,

Just wanted to let you know that Roland just published an article I wrote on his site 82games.com. Using data from Justin and basketball-reference.com, I developed an estimate of the value of holding the rights to the nth pick in the draft, relative to the first pick. The estimate is intended to be "metric-neutral" since it averages the results of multiple metrics and time periods. The article also compares the distribution of value to distribution of guaranteed salary.

Check it out and let me know what you think. It's of course quite relevant to this thread. We could use these results to run the same analysis on the same dataset Dennis posted with a little more quantitate assessment of value, if that would be of interest. I'm traveling this weekend, however so I may not be able to respond right away.

Thanks again to Justin for providing the data, Stephen Ilardi, Brendan Kinnell, and Katie Kinnell for their feedback, and Roland for publishing the results.

Aaron

www.basketballvalue.com

[Mountain]

Linking up with discussion in prior thread would be of interest. The slopes in that model could be compared to yours.

Trading to get in the 5-20 zone looks appealing. I had some rough thoughts about value not declining as fast as rookie scale and making late lottery attractive previously so it is good to see it reinforced.

I wonder about value coming in from draft vs. value let go principally by not re-signing and net effects. Does team behavior of what they let go of vary based on pick level and is it prudent in retrospect?

Median pick value names arent very motivating after around 10th. This probably ought to temper draft day optimism levels. And heighten the effort to beat average draft performance.

[94by50]

Very impressive and intriguing.

[John Hollinger]

Outstanding work. Hadn't realized being the No. 6 pick was such a kiss of death. If your median pick is Dinner bell Mel, shouldn't you just go ahead and trade down?