APBRmetrics Forum Index APBRmetrics
The statistical revolution will not be televised.
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Defensive Composite Score
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    APBRmetrics Forum Index -> General discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Harold Almonte



Joined: 04 Aug 2006
Posts: 318

PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was what Statman suggested some post ago. How did you do? Comparing counterpart's PER against the average PER of the position? Can this +/-PER compares oranges (perimeter) with apples (insiders)? Some split among starters, second unit, and deeper bench position PER?

Or you just positioned DRTG?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Harold Almonte



Joined: 04 Aug 2006
Posts: 318

PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DanR weighted his defensive composite http://www.82games.com/rosenbaum3.htm 60% to +/-,on/off, and 40% +/-stats. He said he used to give more weight to stats before.
RRating weights his overall composite something near to 70% to counterpart and 30% to on/off. He used 50-50 before.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
JNichols42887



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 74

PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harold Almonte wrote:
It was what Statman suggested some post ago. How did you do? Comparing counterpart's PER against the average PER of the position? Can this +/-PER compares oranges (perimeter) with apples (insiders)? Some split among starters, second unit, and deeper bench position PER?

Or you just positioned DRTG?


DRtg and counterpart PER.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
JNichols42887



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 74

PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just calculated DCS scores for the 2006 season and they (thankfully) are pretty similar to 2007. For example, with Memphis in 2006, Battier had a DCS of 44.74. With Houston in 2007, his score was 44.64. Obviously that was one of the closer ones, and there were some players with pretty big jumps or declines (usually those players changed teams and did not get a ton of minutes).
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
kjb



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 688
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd be interested in seeing the 2006 results, but even moreso, the 2005 (if you're up to it). That's because I tracked the Wizards pretty extensively in 2005 and I'm interested to see how DCS compares.
_________________
My blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
JNichols42887



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 74

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kjb wrote:
I'd be interested in seeing the 2006 results, but even moreso, the 2005 (if you're up to it). That's because I tracked the Wizards pretty extensively in 2005 and I'm interested to see how DCS compares.


2005 will take a little longer because I think I'll have to calculate the counterpart PER myself. It appears that it's only listed at 82games by position.

Quote:
Player Team DCS Adjusted
smith,josh atl 3.67
pachulia,zaza atl -6.96
ivey,royal atl -10.57
harrington,al atl -22.39
johnson,joe atl -23.99
williams,marvin atl -24.02
stoudamire,salim atl -25.35
childress,josh atl -35.84
lue,tyronn atl -36.60
olowokandi,micha bos 13.87
perkins,kendrick bos 9.92
allen,tony bos 9.75
west,delonte bos 8.46
scalabrine,brian bos 0.53
gomes,ryan bos -0.93
greene,orien bos -1.64
jefferson,al bos -6.80
pierce,paul bos -10.97
lafrentz,raef bos -11.98
szczerbiak,wally bos -14.27
okafor,emeka cha 36.21
wallace,gerald cha 25.82
felton,raymond cha 8.28
knight,brevin cha 0.32
carroll,matt cha -0.79
ely,melvin cha -0.86
rush,kareem cha -3.11
robinson,bernard cha -4.93
anderson,alan cha -8.43
voskuhl,jake cha -10.86
jones,jumaine cha -22.32
brezec,primoz cha -31.00
deng,luol chi 33.33
chandler,tyson chi 22.87
duhon,chris chi 19.76
allen,malik chi 19.62
hinrich,kirk chi 18.14
harrington,othel chi 7.79
sweetney,mike chi 7.26
gordon,ben chi 6.67
pargo,jannero chi 2.21
nocioni,andres chi 1.91
songaila,darius chi -3.29
varejao,anderson cle 32.88
ilgauskas,zydrun cle 31.18
snow,eric cle 18.37
gooden,drew cle 16.58
james,lebron cle 16.05
pavlovic,sasha cle 2.49
murray,ronald cle 1.24
hughes,larry cle -14.94
marshall,donyell cle -17.04
henderson,alan cle -25.08
jones,damon cle -28.76
griffin,adrian dal 29.05
howard,josh dal 24.38
diop,desagana dal 22.96
daniels,marquis dal 15.96
terry,jason dal 11.50
nowitzki,dirk dal 6.69
dampier,erick dal 6.41
harris,devin dal 3.50
stackhouse,jerry dal -1.09
vanhorn,keith dal -26.51
armstrong,darrel dal -33.01
camby,marcus den 49.99
elson,francisco den 26.28
martin,kenyon den 16.42
anthony,carmelo den 6.28
miller,andre den 4.83
johnson,dermarr den -0.26
buckner,greg den -3.15
najera,eduardo den -11.38
patterson,ruben den -17.44
evans,reggie den -23.63
boykins,earl den -24.23
kleiza,linas den -25.49
wallace,ben det 67.42
prince,tayshaun det 47.02
wallace,rasheed det 43.67
billups,chauncey det 32.36
hamilton,richard det 13.25
mcdyess,antonio det -23.44
evans,maurice det -24.28
delfino,carlos det -48.99
foyle,adonal gsw 45.51
fisher,derek gsw 12.17
dunleavy,mike gsw 12.06
richardson,jason gsw 10.98
davis,baron gsw 3.06
murphy,troy gsw -12.18
pietrus,mickael gsw -12.67
ellis,monta gsw -14.11
biedrins,andris gsw -19.87
diogu,ike gsw -21.78
cabarkapa,zarko gsw -48.97
ming,yao hou 45.17
hayes,chuck hou 35.20
mcgrady,tracy hou 22.60
mutombo,dikembe hou 12.99
alston,rafer hou 11.72
bogans,keith hou 10.91
head,luther hou 9.73
swift,stromile hou 4.82
bowen,ryan hou 4.66
howard,juwan hou 3.92
wesley,david hou -2.15
o'neal,jermaine ind 36.25
tinsley,jamaal ind 20.16
johnson,anthony ind 17.24
pollard,scot ind 14.30
foster,jeff ind 12.23
jackson,stephen ind 10.96
jasikevicius,sar ind 10.34
stojakovic,peja ind 10.29
croshere,austin ind 9.58
jones,fred ind 6.49
granger,danny ind 5.89
harrison,david ind 0.29
brand,elton lac 34.19
mobley,cuttino lac 25.30
ross,quinton lac 21.97
kaman,chris lac 17.95
cassell,sam lac 10.98
maggette,corey lac 4.41
livingston,shaun lac 3.69
ewing,daniel lac -18.82
radmanovic,vladi lac -19.26
singleton,james lac -23.14
odom,lamar lal 28.37
jackson,jim lal 8.66
brown,kwame lal 7.61
george,devean lal 4.36
vujacic,sasha lal 3.25
mihm,chris lal 1.82
walton,luke lal 0.56
parker,smush lal -0.10
bryant,kobe lal -1.69
cook,brian lal -5.33
battier,shane mem 44.74
wright,lorenzen mem 33.76
stoudamire,damon mem 32.37
jones,eddie mem 32.05
gasol,pau mem 27.76
miller,mike mem 12.06
tsakalidis,jake mem 11.85
jackson,bobby mem 10.56
burks,antonio mem 5.77
jones,dahntay mem -4.42
atkins,chucky mem -18.27
warrick,hakim mem -40.50
mourning,alonzo mia 53.76
o'neal,shaquille mia 27.87
wade,dwyane mia 25.75
williams,jason mia 20.18
haslem,udonis mia 19.84
kapono,jason mia 15.95
payton,gary mia 2.07
walker,antoine mia 1.39
posey,james mia 0.12
anderson,derek mia -24.38
anderson,shandon mia -24.93
bogut,andrew mil 21.98
magloire,jamaal mil 19.09
redd,michael mil 14.31
simmons,bobby mil 10.07
ford,t.j. mil 9.62
bell,charlie mil -11.59
williams,maurice mil -20.12
welsch,jiri mil -25.41
smith,joe mil -33.14
gadzuric,dan mil -35.39
kukoc,toni mil -36.48
garnett,kevin min 40.71
jaric,marko min 37.35
madsen,mark min 15.97
griffin,eddie min 7.84
blount,mark min -0.43
hassell,trenton min -4.76
hudson,troy min -6.81
mccants,rashad min -8.60
davis,ricky min -12.99
banks,marcus min -17.61
reed,justin min -17.93
carter,anthony min -22.01
carter,vince njn 46.22
collins,jason njn 45.27
kidd,jason njn 29.10
jefferson,richar njn 28.58
krstic,nenad njn 24.61
planinic,zoran njn 7.38
nachbar,bostjan njn 2.04
murray,lamond njn -0.21
robinson,cliffor njn -1.96
vaughn,jacque njn -8.90
padgett,scott njn -23.53
paul,chris nor 22.14
andersen,chris nor 20.56
snyder,kirk nor 8.58
claxton,speedy nor 6.68
brown,p.j. nor 5.81
mason,desmond nor 0.83
smith,j.r. nor -2.67
west,david nor -7.24
butler,rasual nor -14.09
williams,aaron nor -22.11
johnson,linton nor -45.11
jackson,marc nor -55.80
robinson,nate nyk -4.36
woods,qyntel nyk -4.81
frye,channing nyk -5.10
marbury,stephon nyk -12.69
curry,eddy nyk -13.95
butler,jackie nyk -14.64
richardson,quent nyk -20.55
crawford,jamal nyk -20.57
rose,malik nyk -21.36
lee,david nyk -22.07
francis,steve nyk -22.86
taylor,maurice nyk -31.84
rose,jalen nyk -36.63
milicic,darko orl 34.15
arroyo,carlos orl 29.38
ariza,trevor orl 15.60
howard,dwight orl 10.11
hill,grant orl 2.22
battie,tony orl -3.09
nelson,jameer orl -3.65
dooling,keyon orl -4.23
turkoglu,hedo orl -5.19
stevenson,deshaw orl -20.18
garrity,pat orl -30.75
dalembert,samuel phi 17.99
iguodala,andre phi 15.59
iverson,allen phi 2.18
hunter,steven phi -5.08
webber,chris phi -16.01
korver,kyle phi -17.02
ollie,kevin phi -22.81
salmons,john phi -25.24
barnes,matt phi -30.94
thomas,kurt pho 40.44
diaw,boris pho 27.67
marion,shawn pho 23.95
bell,raja pho 12.98
nash,steve pho 12.35
house,eddie pho 0.85
jones,james pho -18.72
barbosa,leandro pho -38.90
thomas,tim pho -49.47
przybilla,joel por 15.19
ratliff,theo por 2.86
miles,darius por -2.06
skinner,brian por -9.53
randolph,zach por -13.62
telfair,sebastia por -19.77
jack,jarrett por -29.25
blake,steve por -37.64
outlaw,travis por -37.70
dixon,juan por -39.27
webster,martell por -43.46
khryapa,viktor por -45.62
artest,ron sac 29.26
garcia,francisco sac 23.15
thomas,kenny sac 13.31
wells,bonzi sac 12.41
martin,kevin sac 7.61
abdur-rahim,shar sac 4.82
miller,brad sac 3.61
hart,jason sac 1.27
bibby,mike sac -15.67
duncan,tim san 61.46
ginobili,manu san 44.92
parker,tony san 41.99
nesterovic,rasho san 41.65
barry,brent san 41.20
bowen,bruce san 33.77
horry,robert san 24.17
finley,michael san 20.09
vanexel,nick san -9.79
mohammed,nazr san -26.09
udrih,beno san -30.23
watson,earl sea 10.67
allen,ray sea -15.53
collison,nick sea -20.81
swift,robert sea -23.21
wilkins,damien sea -27.14
petro,johan sea -35.09
wilcox,chris sea -35.36
lewis,rashard sea -43.89
ridnour,luke sea -46.66
moore,mikki sea -57.75
bosh,chris tor 7.53
araujo,rafael tor -7.75
sow,pape tor -19.92
james,mike tor -21.26
peterson,morris tor -21.50
davis,antonio tor -24.92
villanueva,charl tor -25.52
calderon,jose tor -30.58
graham,joey tor -36.74
bonner,matt tor -43.66
kirilenko,andrei uta 47.73
collins,jarron uta 27.41
giricek,gordan uta 26.80
palacio,milt uta 4.74
okur,mehmet uta 3.22
ostertag,greg uta -3.26
mcleod,keith uta -3.45
humphries,kris uta -10.32
harpring,matt uta -12.45
brown,devin uta -16.92
williams,deron uta -24.26
boozer,carlos uta -39.63
haywood,brendan was 29.37
jeffries,jared was 20.81
jamison,antawn was 8.74
butler,caron was 2.14
hayes,jarvis was -7.57
thomas,etan was -11.63
daniels,antonio was -13.51
arenas,gilbert was -27.15
ruffin,michael was -31.83
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
Carlos



Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Posts: 43
Location: Montevideo, Uruguay

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very interesting. All Memphis players's ratings took a dive in 06-07, of course. Gasol went from 27.76 in 06 to -12.2 in 07, for example. It seems to me that there is a strong "system effect" at play. That is, being a member of a very good (or very bad) defensive team makes you look better (or worse) than you really are. I mean, Memphis's defense went from good in 06 to terrible in 07 and obviously SOMEBODY defended worse in 07, but the sudden change in a player from "very good defender" to "below average" suggests that there is something more here than just variation in individual ability.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
bchaikin



Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 523
Location: cleveland, ohio

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It seems to me that there is a strong "system effect" at play.

memphis went from the 2nd best/lowest points allowed per defensive team possession in 05-06 to the highest/worst in 06-07 among the 30 teams in the league. however in dropping from 49 wins in 05-06 to just 22 wins in 06-07, their points scored per offensive team position actually got better...

3 of the 5 players to play the most minutes for the grizzlies in 05-06 were shane battier, an excellent defender, and eddie jones and bobby jackson, two very good defenders. none of the three played for the team in 06-07. when you lose not one or two but three of your best defenders among your top five minutes played players, your defense will most likely get worse, regardless of the coach or system...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
JNichols42887



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 74

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree. Right now I think there are two flaws with the system: It is highly influenced by what team you're on (as evidenced by Ginobili looking so good every year), and it doesn't account for matchups. I may be able to fix the first problem though. I'm just not sure if I want to punish bad players on good teams and vice versa. For example, some of Gasol's decline surely was a result of the Grizzlies losing some good defenders and becoming terrible defensively. But I also think that individually he probably played worse too. If everyone around you is bad on defense and doesn't care, you're probably not going to put forth your best effort either.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
Carlos



Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Posts: 43
Location: Montevideo, Uruguay

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or maybe playing in a very good defensive team in 06 made him look better than he really was.. The thing is, I'm not sure how to (or if it's really possible to) separate individual defensive ability from team system and teammates's ability. Playing with good defenders in a good system means your guy receives worse entry passes, you don't have to help as much, defensive help arrives faster, there are fewer targets for the opponent to pass to, etc. These things don't really show in counterpart production and I'm unsure of how to account for them.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
KeeneKaufmanWheeler



Joined: 02 Aug 2006
Posts: 66

PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've found this research to be very interesting, and I've tinkered with the data a little to try and make the data easier to compare across teams.

I used my own ranking system which I like to extrapolate across whole teams (to create a "team offense ranking") and opponents (to give a "Team Defense" ranking). This gives me a relative measure to compare how much better one team is than another.

I then applied these percentages to DCS to come up with a Team DCS. This gave me a starting point to try and factor in team performance into individual ranking.

First, I decided to use the original -- version one -- DCS rankings. I felt that there were several players that jumped out at me as being way off in version two (notably Earl Boykins being considered an average defender).

I then filtered the data twice: once to factor out team-to-team differences and another to factor the individual’s influence on team performance.

For the team weighting, I added/subtracted half of the percentage difference that each team deviated from the norm (half of the difference because I theorized that since defense is part ability and part coaching style, I wanted one filter to be coaching related and one player ability related). For the individual weighting I calculated the percentage of minutes each player had played and factored in the value of the player vs. that of an average replacement-level player (a 50 DCS player).

I feel that the results look pretty accurate. They are definitely best when comparing players to their contemporaries at the same position – it seems like point guards in particular get knocked down significantly. Maybe they tend to have more offensive responsibilities and tougher nightly defensive matchups than other players?

The results (top 5 at each position):


OVERALL RANK ADJUSTED DCS
2 104.241 okafor,emeka cha C
3 104.058 duncan,tim sa C
4 102.805 biedrins,andris gs C
5 102.676 o'neal,jermaine ind C
24 96.242 nesterovic,rasho tor C
1 105.754 garnett,kevin min PF
6 101.591 marion,shawn pho PF
11 99.824 varejao,anderson cle PF
12 99.798 thomas,tyrus chi PF
13 99.631 millsap,paul uta PF
7 101.490 balkman,renaldo ny SF
15 98.921 battier,shane hou SF
18 98.171 james,lebron cle SF
23 96.592 ariza,trevor orl SF
25 95.292 artest,ron sac SF
9 101.263 ginobili,manu sa SG
29 94.598 wells,bonzi hou SG
37 91.200 sefolosha,thabo chi SG
41 90.734 wade,dwyane mia SG
43 90.026 mcgrady,tracy hou SG
8 101.339 davis,baron gs PG
10 100.938 rondo,rajon bos PG
22 96.740 alston,rafer hou PG
33 92.901 harris,devin dal PG
46 88.764 ewing,daniel lac PG

And the bottom at each position:

236 26.334 voskuhl,jake cha C
274 13.188 blount,mark min C
297 6.771 brezec,primoz cha C
320 -0.850 okur,mehmet uta C
326 -5.105 curry,eddy ny C
288 9.470 randolph,zach por PF
293 7.330 diaw,boris pho PF
294 7.286 robinson,cliffor nj PF
315 -0.071 warrick,hakim mem PF
319 -0.670 gomes,ryan bos PF
298 6.496 kapono,jason mia SF
309 1.480 williams,shawne ind SF
317 -0.393 hayes,jarvis was SF
318 -0.585 szczerbiak,wally bos SF
323 -3.116 morrison,adam cha SF
307 3.268 jones,dahntay mem SG
310 1.257 carroll,matt cha SG
312 0.692 green,willie phi SG
313 0.376 hassell,trenton min SG
316 -0.183 crawford,jamal ny SG
321 -0.966 atkins,chucky mem PG
322 -1.232 mcinnis,jeff cha PG
324 -3.749 lue,tyronn atl PG
325 -4.944 williams,deron uta PG
327 -5.987 marbury,stephon ny PG

The full data is posted at http://briefcase.yahoo.com/ipmhoops

Oh, and one difficulty with even attempting this analysis: the fact that charges taken is not a stat.

I think the results do a pretty good job of sorting the players relative to one another. It's tough to filter out the team efffect when a big part of defense is coaching style and a big part of coaching style is player composition. So it doesn't really surprise me that the best defenders seem somewhat concentrated on the best defending teams.

Maybe Trenton Hassell just wasn’t all that great a defender this year – players like Bruce Bowen and Artest who also take on the best opponent every night don’t get similarly hammered.

JNichols, thanks for your efforts on this. I think it’s very illuminating.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
JNichols42887



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 74

PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's very interesting stuff. How did you calculate team DCS? It seems the hardest decision is how much of a team factor do you associate to individual player ability. You chose to do half, which is probably more realistic than the way I did it (fully determined by player ability).

Also, you chose the first DCS system released in the first 82games article. I personally like the second one a lot better. Sure there are some players that are a bit off, but it helped so many guys like Tayshaun Prince that I think it did more good than harm. But hey, that decision in the end just comes down to our personal opinions and biases, so I guess there isn't a right way to do it.

I'm glad you're taking my data and running with it. I take that as a huge compliment.

-Jon
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
kjb



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 688
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jon: Finally got around to looking at your 05-06 results. Interesting stuff. Out of curiosity, what do you make of Jamison's "better than average" rating?
_________________
My blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
JNichols42887



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 74

PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kjb wrote:
Jon: Finally got around to looking at your 05-06 results. Interesting stuff. Out of curiosity, what do you make of Jamison's "better than average" rating?


To be honest, a combination of him having an exaggerated reputation of being a bad defender and the fact that maybe this stat rewards starters too much at the moment (I'm currently working to fix that).
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
kjb



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 688
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2007 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another factor that might be getting picked up in your numbers is that Jamison had the best rebounding season since his rookie year in 05-06. It was his career high in defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. And that was for a bad defensive rebounding team, so those boards were fairly important.
_________________
My blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    APBRmetrics Forum Index -> General discussion All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next
Page 8 of 9

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group