APBRmetrics

[anarcholis]

Some people were mentioning that the errors in Hollinger's system were as significant as those in the real draft process. Now I have no data to dispute or support this statement, but I think it misses the value of Hollinger's work.

Simply having another source to compare notes with is a significant advantage for getting the guys that are most likely to succeed. I think the most effective way would be by simply subtracting those players that are flagged as ineffective by one system or the other.

If you had a lottery pick, you wouldn't pick Fazekas or Glen Davis because of the red flags thrown by the scouts, Nick Young, Spencer Hawes, or Acie Law because of Hollinger's system, Thaddeus Young (and Nick Young and Hawes again) because of HoopsAnalyst, etc.

While I've never tested this, consensus building in general is a good way to avoid risk. Obviously a team might think it was better to take a gamble on a hot prospect, but for late lottery picks, this method is probably a good way to sort out who is most likely to not dissapoint (as opposed to who is most likely to suceed).

This is what I see as the real value of Hollinger's system. No one system will be able to predict all the successes, but being able to weed out the failures is just as worthwhile.

[kenpom]

[tmansback]

The system looks as of right now a great bust indicator. The actual final order of the top 12 is not as important to me as the guys that do poorly in this.

Corey Brewer does have a lot of bust potential. IMO you don't draft perimeter players because of there defense. There is almost no one in college that compares to the dynamic SGs in the pros. Thaddeus Young could turn out the better defender in the pros. He is bigger, stronger, longer, and more athletic than Brewer.

It be interesting to see how it would do with more years to judge the results. What would this system have said about Michael Jordan vs Hakeem would be very interesting.

[asimpkins]

From Hollinger's article:

[SGreenwell]

[admin]

Here's the 50-50s I have in my spreadsheet, which (a.) is incomplete and (b.) only includes legit prospects:

[CareyScurry]

Hines has an outside shot at eventually making the league as a Bo Outlaw type, though he's neither as tall (6-6 230) or as rangy. If he managed that, he'd be the first UNC Greensboro player to do so. Here's Hines' Draft Express page.

[jkubatko]

Below are the NCAA Division I players with 50+ steals and 50+ blocks in a season over the last three seasons:

[hoopinion]

50/50 is a pretty crude standard given the variables in college scheduling.

I noted in my Oden v. Durant post (http://hoopinion.blogspot.com/2007/05/oden-v-durant.html) that Durant, unique among potential top-20 draftees, averaged 3 blocks and 3 steals per 100 possessions last year and only Noah and Julian Wright were above 2.5 blocks and 2.5 steals per 100 possessions.

Looking through my data again, I notice that Joey Dorsey had 81 blocks (5.0/100) and 53 steals (3.2/100) last year. He didn't score at all (less than 20 pts/100) but had excellent rebounding numbers (18.6 OR%, 21.7 DR%). He's not far off Millsap's college profile (though I only have Millsap's senior season adjusted for pace and playing time) .

[John Hollinger]

The disparity on the # of 50-50 seasons between what I said and what was mentioned above is because I didn't include the Troy State's and UNC-Greensboros of the world in my database, which I should have clarified -- I only looked at major collegians and the occasional Rodney Stuckey or Chris Kaman that had been ID'd as a smaller-school find. This was done mainly due to time limitations -- I would have had to assemble stats and PERs and what not for three times as many schools otherwise.

[Pinot]

What do you guys know and think of Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings? Do you find their %blocks and %steals rates as useful as say rebound rate?

[hoopinion]

[Pinot]

[Statman]

[hoopinion]