APBRmetrics

[Nikos]

I was having a discussion about Dirk06/Bird88 in another forum and most of it pertained to their peak PER seasons.

Dirk seems to be a slightly better scorer in his era (pace and team adjusted). Most of the other stats are even, but Bird has a decisive passing edge.

But considering PER factors Player APG/Team APG it sort of makes Dirk look even more superior on offense, because Birds 6.1 - 2.8apg (+3.1apg) passing edge isn't as big because the Celtics of 1988 were a superior passing team. Meaning since Dirks team was a poor passing team meaning Bird's passing edge relative to his team context is less credited with the PER system.

Is this fair? Is it a weakness in the PER system? Or is Dirk actually just a little better than Bird offensively because his offensive PER is a little better?

Dirk had 15.6% of his teams assists, Bird had 20%. This means that Bird didn't have that much more proportion of team assists as the +3.1apg differential indicates. Its sort of like the Win Share Argument in a way. Dirk is more responsible for his teams offense if you factor his slight edge in scoring over Bird (only because of ERA and league rating -- this edge is not noticable in basic per 40, TS% stats).

Anyone agree with this potential assist flaw? Or does it make sense to say these guys were about dead even offensively, despite their basic per 40 stats look the same (even era adjusted) -- where Bird has more assists?

http://basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1988.html

http://basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2006.html

This would be a perfect time to see these players offensive PER's alone. But I don't think such a spreadsheet exists.

[Mike G]

Is it better to have a higher % of your team's assists? Doesn't a good pass often lead to another good pass, which becomes the assist?

Some ballhogger types won't give it up until they might get an assist. Suppose Bird would not make the easy pass, unless it was to a likely shooter. Then his Ast/TmAst ratio would go up, as he became a poorer passer.

As it was, several Celtics made good/easy passes, and eventually someone got an assist. They enhanced one anothers' assist rates, and no one had a really high % of them. Had anyone become selfish, the team would score less, with fewer assists; and the one guy would have a higher % of them.

A lot more successful teams had balanced distribution of their assists, than had one-man focus of them. Other than late-80s Magic/Lakers, I can't even think of anyone else who won a title with a dominant passer. Cousy/Celtics, anyone else?
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40% of all statistics are wrong.

[Nikos]

[asimpkins]

To state the obvious: the ultimate purpose of an offense is to score points, and to score as many points as possible in the finite possessions allowed.

Assists are one way to generate points, but they aren't the only way, and depending on the team and talents involved, they aren't even necessarily the best way. Dallas illustrated that last year. If I remember correctly, they were perhaps the top offensive team but had one of the lowest number of assisted baskets. I'm sure there are other examples.

This is part of what makes assists so difficult to value -- their optional nature in offense. But personally, I wouldn't hold it against a player how he creates his offense, I'd just look at how efficient it was and how much of it there was. I'd credit Bird for his assists, but mostly in how it influenced his Usage Rate and the amount of offense he generated

Of course, maybe with different teams these players would change in value? Was Nowitzki in a special situation that allowed him to shoot and not pass much? Would Bird's passing be more valuable to the average team? I don't know.

[Nikos]

Bird's Usage Rate in this comparison will be higher, because his team generates more assists in general. So those extra assists he has on Dirk, while not being a large difference if you factor PlayerAPG/TeamAPG (aka OFFENSIVE PER) is large in terms of the Usage Rate Equation.

I guess this why a lot of players and guards especially seemed to have higher Usage Rates back in the 80s. (This was another question I posted before, but didn't generate any discussion).

[asimpkins]

Ack. I just realized this thread was not about what I initially thought. It was early in the morning here, and I wasn't paying close enough attention. Sorry.

[Nikos]

[asimpkins]

[Nikos]

Yeah I thought it made sense at first, but on second look and after arguing on the boards, I felt that Bird deserved an edge, because he is a better passer -- and that is easier to see in the general GLORY STATS (basic per 40 era adjusted stats) -- not as easy to tell that Dirk was the superior scorer if you UNLESS you adjust for everything -- in general Dirk is superior on offense SLIGHTLY.

I see them basically as equals I guess in terms of regular season prime production -- considering neither was a standout defender. Bird the better passer, Dirk the slightly better offensive player. Both equal in rebounding I guess.

[Mike G]

[Nikos]

[asimpkins]