APBRmetrics

Mike G · Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:43 pm Post subject:

I've been noticing an unusual number of point guards in the most improved lists, and I worry that it's just that eWins has an improved value for assists this year.
But the magnitude of the improvement seems too large still. Looking for corroboration or rebuttal, here are last year's top 15 Ast% among point guards, and other relevant numbers last year and this year.

Crow · Joined: 20 Jan 2009 Posts: 826

Interesting find and question.

I'd like to see EZPM, ASPM and Adjusted +/- too
and ideally adjusted by an aging curve.

Doesn't offense tend to get a bit better at the end of the season too?

Any positions that declined? I'll throw out a guess out there that center would be the best one to check for possible decline.

EvanZ · Joined: 22 Nov 2010 Posts: 308

point guard cabal?
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Crow · Joined: 20 Jan 2009 Posts: 826

I think the list has 9 younger guys and 6 older ones so some y-t-y improvement might be expected.

Paul maybe got more healthy.
BDavis maybe got more healthy and got Griffin.
Westbrook and Rose went with big usage increases.
Felton got to run with D'Antoni and Amare S.

If the top 30 showed a similar increase it would strengthen the case for some change in the way the game is being played.

Mike G · Posted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 8:38 am Post subject:

OK, using this search page -- http://bkref.com/tiny/HEypT
Players (guards) with at least 20 Ast% and at least 182 assists both last year and this year.
100 such player seasons from 2010 and 2011, and 38 guards who appear for both years.
Here they are, youngest to oldest, using b-r.com age for this season:

Mike G · Posted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:46 am Post subject:

Indeed, breaking the 38 into thirds -- shifting 29 YO to the oldest group, 24's to the youngest -- an age progression is seen.

Crow · Joined: 20 Jan 2009 Posts: 826

You've captured a lot of the detail about performance vs age. The Adjusted +/- averages by age block would be another element.

The 29 years olds... will any of them get another big contract? Unlikely. But that would be true of most older too. Only 2 between 27-29 improved on PER. Maybe the impact of contract status hits around 27-29 and then maybe end of career competitive fire often overrides it later? Some of these guys get stuck on teams after a good era at least for awhile. I don't know if it is more than normal, but it might be.

iamawesomer · Joined: 01 Sep 2008 Posts: 18

Are the nba scorers more friendlier in general in handing out assists this year compared to last?

DSMok1 · Posted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:35 pm Post subject:

Mike G · Posted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:52 pm Post subject:

This year, home Ast/FG is .590, and away it's .565. Total .578
This is up a notch from last year : .578 at home, .548 away, and .563 overall.

Last year, however, was the lowest Ast/FG ratio since 1977.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

This year's ratio is 2.9% higher than last year's.
This is not quite 1/3 of the +8.9% observed in top-38 playmakers' Ast%.
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Mike G · Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 10:32 am Post subject:

If guards are universally getting more assists this year, someone must be getting less.
Applying to forwards the standards of >40 Ast and >10 Ast% this year and last year, there are 98 player-seasons. 37 forwards qualify both last year and this year.
Of the 37, 22 (60%) have higher ast% this season.

23 of 37 with >10 Ast% and >1.1 Ast/G have higher Ast% this year.
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36% of all statistics are wrong

Mike G · Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 8:03 am Post subject:

These updates are a lot more work with all the players being traded.
Early front runner Eric Gordon has run into injuries.

Mike G · Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2011 7:33 am Post subject:

Seeing this list still dominated by guards -- PG's especially -- may as well break them out by position, and do totals by position.

Philosopher · Joined: 26 May 2006 Posts: 77

It's my understanding that eW is not a rate stat -- it doesn't adjust at all for the # of minutes/games played.

Accordingly, some of the players who lost eW are due to injury, such as Boozer and Nowitzki. If you adjusted for the # of minutes played, you would get very different results.