| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
inkt2002
Joined: 10 Oct 2009
Posts: 8
|
 Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 10:44 am Post subject: Monte Carlo Simulation for individual games |
 |
|
Hi gang,
I was wondering if anyone has and shared a nice spreadsheet that simulates each game or comes up with a win probability for each team for a given game? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 260
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:42 am Post subject: |
|
|
| I have a python script that comes up with win probabilities if that helps you. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 602
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 12:04 pm Post subject: Re: Monte Carlo Simulation for individual games |
|
|
| inkt2002 wrote: | Hi gang,
I was wondering if anyone has and shared a nice spreadsheet that simulates each game or comes up with a win probability for each team for a given game? |
I've got several Excel version lying around, not Monte Carlo though. I have one that calculates full playoff probabilities directly, given team's efficiency differentials.
_________________
GodismyJudgeOK.com/DStats |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
acollard
Joined: 22 Sep 2010
Posts: 56
Location: MA
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 12:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Sorry if this is a basic question, but I've wondered this for a while now. Do efficiency differentials predict win-loss better than average point differential? I would think that you would have to multiply efficiency by pace for a more accurate prediction.
This feeling is based on the fact that: A slow paced team with a efficiency differential of +2 but a pace of 50 would have an average margin of victory half of a fast paced team with the same differential and a pace of 100. The slow paced team provides more opportunity for chance to create losses, whereas the fast paced team gives itself a bigger sample (and a bigger average cushion) to eliminate some of the problem
Is this logic flawed? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
inkt2002
Joined: 10 Oct 2009
Posts: 8
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 1:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| back2newbelf wrote: | | I have a python script that comes up with win probabilities if that helps you. |
Yes that would be awesome and greatly appreciated!! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
inkt2002
Joined: 10 Oct 2009
Posts: 8
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: Monte Carlo Simulation for individual games |
|
|
| DSMok1 wrote: | | inkt2002 wrote: | Hi gang,
I was wondering if anyone has and shared a nice spreadsheet that simulates each game or comes up with a win probability for each team for a given game? |
I've got several Excel version lying around, not Monte Carlo though. I have one that calculates full playoff probabilities directly, given team's efficiency differentials. |
Does it test individual game probabilities as well? Would love to take a look. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
DSMok1
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 602
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 2:19 pm Post subject: Re: Monte Carlo Simulation for individual games |
|
|
| inkt2002 wrote: |
Does it test individual game probabilities as well? Would love to take a look. |
I have 1 here:https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1NfCUslJwxOTRkYmJhYTEtMTNhNC00NjViLWE1ODctYzk3ZDI1MzllOTUz&sort=name&layout=list&num=50
It was from last season, before playoff time: the first sheet took regular SPM for the team from the season and adjusted it for a playoff rotation (and allowed me to pull out players that were hurt). Then, the second page takes the team efficiency differential (calc'd from the SPM) and calculates the odds first of each game and then of each possible series outcome. It doesn't do all of the playoffs in series (to give each team a odds of winning the title), just each series with the teams you choose. I just used the Pythagorean on team efficiency differential, which does (yes, it does) give the best odds of who wins.
_________________
GodismyJudgeOK.com/DStats |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
