{"id":902,"date":"2013-01-04T16:04:03","date_gmt":"2013-01-04T22:04:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/?p=902"},"modified":"2013-01-04T16:04:03","modified_gmt":"2013-01-04T22:04:03","slug":"nfl-adjusted-points-per-possession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2013\/nfl\/nfl-adjusted-points-per-possession\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL: Adjusted Points per Possession"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As the NFL playoffs approach, I was looking around for some good, adjusted performance data on the teams.  In the NBA, we would immediately look at <a href=\"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2013-nba-team-ratings\/\">adjusted efficiencies<\/a>&#8211;Points per 100 Possessions, adjusted for opponent.<\/p>\n<p>That data isn&#8217;t available in the NFL; in fact, it is hard to locate data on possession-based stats at all.  Many stats are stated per game, which bothers me when pundits discuss the quality of the defense or offense&#8211;maybe New England just allows opponents more possessions, not more points per possession! However, Jim Armstrong at Football Outsiders <a href=\"http:\/\/www.footballoutsiders.com\/stats\/drivestats\" class=\"broken_link\">compiles a number of possession-based stats<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Those aren&#8217;t adjusted for opponent, so I took the Pts\/Dr data and recursively adjusted based on opponents, yielding an Adjusted Points per Possession value for both offense and defense for each NFL team.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the results:<\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/javascripts\/api\/viz_v1.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<div class=\"tableauPlaceholder\" style=\"width:579px; height:1669px;\"><noscript><a href=\"#\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"2012-13 NFL Points per Possession \" src=\"http:&#47;&#47;public.tableausoftware.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;NF&#47;NFL2012-13AdjustedPointsPossession&#47;NFLPointsperPossession&#47;1_rss.png\" style=\"border: none\" \/><\/a><\/noscript><object class=\"tableauViz\" width=\"579\" height=\"1669\" style=\"display:none;\"><param name=\"host_url\" value=\"http%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableausoftware.com%2F\" \/><param name=\"site_root\" value=\"\" \/><param name=\"name\" value=\"NFL2012-13AdjustedPointsPossession&#47;NFLPointsperPossession\" \/><param name=\"tabs\" value=\"no\" \/><param name=\"toolbar\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"static_image\" value=\"http:&#47;&#47;public.tableausoftware.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;NF&#47;NFL2012-13AdjustedPointsPossession&#47;NFLPointsperPossession&#47;1.png\" \/><param name=\"animate_transition\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"display_static_image\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"display_spinner\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"display_overlay\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"display_count\" value=\"yes\" \/><\/object><\/div>\n<div style=\"width:579px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px;color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;\">\n<div style=\"float:right; padding-right:8px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tableausoftware.com\/public?ref=http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/views\/NFL2012-13AdjustedPointsPossession\/NFLPointsperPossession\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"broken_link\">Powered by Tableau<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Notes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Patriots have an average defense!<\/li>\n<li>Seattle, San Fransisco, and Atlanta (slow paced teams) look better by this than by looking at pure points (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/years\/2012\/\">SRS<\/a>); Chicago, Houston, New England, and Denver look a little worse.<\/li>\n<li>As I thought, New England&#8217;s O looks worse and D looks better looking through this lens&#8230; a little.<\/li>\n<li>There are 4 elite teams: Seattle, New England, San Fransisco, and Denver.<\/li>\n<li>\nThe Giants are not far back&#8230; too bad they missed the playoffs!<\/li>\n<li>The Colts&#8230; how did they do it?  They are ranked 27th by this measure!<\/li>\n<li>It looks like the Arizona defensive ratings are a bit out there.  Not sure if there is a bug with that.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the NFL playoffs approach, I was looking around for some good, adjusted performance data on the teams. In the NBA, we would immediately look at adjusted efficiencies&#8211;Points per 100 Possessions, adjusted for opponent. That data isn&#8217;t available in the NFL; in fact, it is hard to locate data on possession-based stats at all. Many &#8230; <span class=\"more\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2013\/nfl\/nfl-adjusted-points-per-possession\/\">[Read more&#8230;]<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[47,48,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=902"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":907,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/902\/revisions\/907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}